San Antonio Spurs Blog

A Deluxe Apartment in the Skyyyyyy

2005-10-31T19:42:00.000-08:00

My blog has moved to PoundingTheRock.com.

After lengthy and often bitter negotiations (involving me asking and them saying "OK") my blog is officially moving over to SportsBlogs Nation. SBNation is a growing family of high quality team-specific (for the most part) sports blogs featuring some of the best and most prominent in the ~~business~~ ~~hobby~~ pseudo-business, including a couple of my favorites: Athletics Nation and Lookout Landing. They have just begun to fill out their basketball roster and got off to a great start with Matt over at Blog-A-Bull.

I want to quickly layout the reasons why I made the move and I also want to elaborate on the, uh, non-reasons. Let's start with the latter.

1. Don't get me wrong, moving to SBNation certainly widens my audience and exposure. The site has been mentioned in the New York Times and Forbes Magazine and may "legitamize" my blog in the exploding internet blogging community. But please, I beg you, do not think I am doing this to gain "journalistic credibility." I have absolutely no desire to be anything resembling a mainstream sportswriter. I have no aspirations or delusions of making even half of a meager living off blogging. Basically what I am trying to say is nothing about my writing is going to change. I will still address topics of my choosing in the manner I see fit. Chris Webber is still an overrated sorry excuse for a player. Latrell Sprewell still needs to go fuck himself. PJ Carlesimo's hotel room is still teaming with groupies. And of course Ray Allen is still a pedicured nancy boy. None of that changes.

So, why am I moving.

1. As you may have noticed, all SBNation sites have similar setups. I can say from experience that the layout and interfaces are extremely easy to use from a user and author standpoint. I will no longer have to spend hours fiddling with templates and html code. You have no idea how much I hated fucking around with sidebar widths and font sizes. Ugh.

2. I get my own domain name. Finally a url people can remember! I can also now more easily add photos and charts and graphs and polls and bells and whistles to all of my posts.

3. The SBNation format also lends itself to community involvement. They have a feature called a "diary." Readers can write their own separate posts which can they be commented on by everybody, giving a voice to people who don't want to spend the time to setup and maintain a blog (not to mention finding an audience). This blog has seen many great rants and thoughts from the likes of Matty da Blade, Booth.52, Hollywood, Jason, COKE08, texastentialist, etc. A lot of these comments should have been their own posts and that's what the diaries are for. And of course you can still add comments below my posts as well. By the way, you will need to register in order to leave a comment or write a diary entry. It's certainly free and you will not receive any spam, etc.

4. It should be fun being part of a larger group. SBNation is still a young site; it will be interesting to see where any of "this" goes. When I first had the idea of starting this blog I figured I would be one in a sea of many Spurs blogs. Much to my surprise a Google search yielded no relevant results. In fact, basketball blogs on any subject were relatively sparse. This was 10 months ago; and now I get an e-mail every other day about some new basketball site that has popped up. There are a lot of interesting things going on; "this" has been a lot more fun/interesting/challenging than I thought it could/would be. I hope you'll come along.

Ladies and gentlemen, PoundingTheRock.com.

Gregg Popovich to Attend Benefit Wine Tasting

2005-10-28T18:24:00.000-07:00

Some of you may know that the Spurs' fearless leader Gregg Popovich is quite the wine lover; he in fact has a collection of "about 3000." What the hell does that have to do with anything? Well, long story short, today I got an email from Mr. Damien Casten of Candid Wines. On Sunday, November 6th Coach Pop will be attending a benefit wine tasting in Hinsdale, Illinois. All proceeds will go to Bear Necessities Pediatric Cancer Association. The attendance is limited to twenty people and there are four tickets on eBay. (Search under "wine tasting" if that link doesn't work.) The opening bids are set at $500.

If you don't live in Chicago area or don't have that kind of scratch there are other ways you can help. Beginning October 31st there will some Spurs memorabilia auctioned off on eBay. Again, all proceeds will be donated. And they got some good stuff. I'm not talking about Jack Haley's game used socks; this stuff is creme de la creme. Take a look:

Autographed official NBA jerseys from Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. Also autographed kicks from the same trio! That's off the chizzle! I officially call dibs on Manu's.

I'll post a reminder when the auctions go live.

The Following Preview is Rated PG-13

2005-10-25T23:14:00.000-07:00

The lovely folks over at SportsFanMagazine.com asked me to do a preview of the upcoming season. They supplied the questions, I supplied the answers. A general distaste for humanity supplied the endless heaps of sarcasm.

Biggest off-season move for your team, and why:

I think the acquisition of Michael Finley will prove the most beneficial. Brent Barry’s defense was a huge liability during the playoffs. Finley will be a significant improvement in this area and also shoots a comparable percentage from the 3-point line (Finley has shot 39.4% over the past 3 years compared to Barry’s 40.2%).

Finley’s dependability on the defensive end should allow Pop to severely limit Manu’s regular season minutes which is undoubtedly high on Pop’s priority list (presumably right below keeping Tim and Manu healthy). Another significant benefit of the Finley signing is roster flexibility. The Spurs are basically at the luxury tax threshold (which owner Peter Holt has vowed not to exceed) and will need to move a significant contract if they want to sign Mohammed or another free agent at the end of the season. Finley’s performance may make Barry and his $15.5 million over the next three years expendable. And, unlike Rasho Nesterovic, Brent is actually tradeable.

Another move worth mentioning is Duncan’s growing afro. It’s downright saucy.

Biggest off-season loss for your team, and why:

Uhh… Devin Brown I guess (free agent; signed with the Jazz). He brought aggressiveness and athleticism every night but didn’t play any meaningful minutes in the playoffs due to a back injury. Not much of a loss when you consider his roster spot was taken by Michael Finley.

Who is your favorite player and why, either on your own team or in theentire NBA?

Ray Allen, mainly because I gravitate towards overrated high-volume scorers that would rather get a pedicure than play defense. Man, I love hating Ray Allen. Anyways. Anyone who reads my blog could probably guess that Manu “The Sickness” Ginobili is my favorite player. Skillful, stylish, fearless and just happened to be the best player on the Spurs during the playoffs. And yes, I know he flops and has long hair despite a growing bald spot.

Phil and Kobe: Dynasty in the making, or disaster waiting to happen? Why?

Disaster. Even if there’s no friction or controversy the media will do what it takes to fabricate drama between the “genius” coach and the “uncoachable” player. I am sure Phil Jackson’s lapdog Charley Rosen already has the article written.

Should the NBA just cut to the chase and give Andrew Bogut the Rookie of theYear award now?

No. Charlie Villanueva’s going to win it. He’ll get a ton of minutes in Toronto and be more of a focal point of the offense (after Bosh of course) than Bogut (or any other candidate). He’ll also get a lot of media coverage because of the near universal trashing of his selection with the #7 pick. People love a story, especially when the story doesn’t have eyebrows.

Who will have the higher attendance this season: Atlanta or Charlotte? Andif a tree falls during either of their home games, will it make a sound?

Yes and yes.

Who will be the best-dressed player under the NBA’s new dress-code policy?

The dual man-purse attack of Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto will be too much for the rest of the league to overcome.

On a scale of 1-10, how tired of the San Antonio Spurs’ success are you?(With “one” being not at all, and “ten” being the kind of pain you feel whenyou see Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes on the cover of a magazine at thesupermarket.)

Definitely a 1. Despite winning the title, the Spurs are still a team in flux. There are a lot of interesting side plots to follow. Will Parker’s offensive game continue to develop? Will Manu play at the same level he did in the playoffs? Will Tim Duncan continue his trend of shouldering less of the offensive burden? How well will Oberto, Finley and Van Exel fit in? Who’s going to start at center? Will Barry, Mohammed or Nesterovic get traded during the season? Will Eva break Tony’s heart? Will Duncan embrace the fro? Will Popovich say one provocative thing the whole season? How many more times will Duncan say something is “basically retarded?”

Over/Under on the number of games Eddy Curry plays this season for the Knicks:

58 seems like a good total, but I hope he plays all 82. Though the more Jermaine Jones plays the more opportunities I’ll have to write about the ineptitude of Isiah Thomas.

Favorite current NBA uniform:

Spurs. How can you go wrong with black and silver?

Least favorite current NBA uniform:

Charlotte. That orange is horrendous; even worse than their nickname.

Rank these three in order, from the person you’d most likely be able to takein a fight to the person who’d give you the harshest ass-whupping: RonArtest, Jermaine O'Neal and Stephen Jackson.

Just contemplating this question has caused me to wet myself.

If aspiring law enforcement officer Shaquille O’Neal had his own televisionpolice drama series, what would it be called?

“Supersized Shaft.” The series would get great ratings but people in the know would say his costar carried every other episode.

Will the New Orleans Hornets ever play another game in New Orleans? If not,where will they move?

Yes, but they’ll move to Vegas by the end of the decade.

Word Association time. When I say ______, what's the first thing that comesto mind?

Mark Cuban: A breath of fresh air. I love the fact that he’s willing to speak his mind and wear his emotions on his sleeve. Yeah, he complains about the officiating a lot, but that probably has something to do with the fact that the refs suck ass.

Yao Ming: Underappreciated. The guy shot, what, 55% last year at age 24? Van Gundy complains about his conditioning yet has him sprinting up and down the court, jumping the pick and roll and setting screens all day. Hey Jeff, watch some film of Shaq. The only time he sprints is when he’s leading the fast break in an All Star game.

Allen Iverson: Overappreciated. I love his grit and determination, but having great basketball skill does not necessarily translate into being a great NBA player.

LeBron James: On the verge. I am not sure what statistical expectations would qualify as unrealistic.

Bill Walton: Over the top. I have gone from hating this guy to liking him and I have no explanation.

Stephen A. Smith: What’s the big deal? Yeah, he has opinions, he’s loud and is willing to label people and teams as “horrible.” Why does this bother people? Who cares?

David Stern: A pimp with vision. I don’t even know what I mean by that.

Finally, where do you expect your team will finish, and what do you thinkits record will be? What one thing will "make or break" your season?

I don’t think the Spurs will have the best record in the West. Pop loves to tinker with substitution patterns and combinations and has 3 key players to integrate. Securing home court is not a high priority to him; especially compared to keeping Tim and Manu healthy and rested. I think they’ll cruise to 59 wins while playing Tim and Manu about 30 and 28 minutes a game respectively.

The only thing that can “break” the season is an injury to Duncan or Ginobili. Assuming they stay healthy the Spurs are the obvious favorites, though I think the Pacers (assuming Artest keeps control of the voices in his head) could give them serious trouble in the finals. However, if Tony Parker develops a jump shot then nobody stands a chance.

Prediction: Back to back: Spurs over Pacers in 6.

#10. Manu Ginobili

2005-10-21T12:27:00.000-07:00

Position: SG
Ht. / Wt.: 6'-6" / 205
Age: 28
Fun Fact: Manu often wears white after Labor Day because he simply doesn't give a damn.

Here's another entry into the hopeless list. I wanted to address a couple of things and tie up some loose ends and this entry is a logical place.

I previously made a big deal about Manu not winning Finals MVP. I then couldn't let it go. I wanted to first post the results of the reader poll regarding who should have won MVP. Timmeh got 96 votes to 84 for Manu. That amounts to 53%. There's also one last comment I want to make before moving on, but I first should say the following:

Tim Duncan is the best player on the Spurs. He is, generally speaking, by FAR the most valuable Spur and he will be for the forseeable future. There's a reason I sometimes refer to him as "The Cornerstone." He's the prototypical franchise player that you build championships around. I heart Timothy Duncan.

In one of the above linked posts I mentioned the remarkable +/- numbers that Ginobili put up during the Finals; much better than Duncan's. This is especially interesting when you consider that Pop held firm to Spurs Playoff Rule #1: Either Duncan or Ginobili must be on the court at all times. Let's say Ginobili was on the court for 80% of the minutes Duncan was on the bench. This amounts to 45 total minutes, or 18% of Manu's total minutes in the Finals. If Duncan was the most valuable player in the series you would think Manu's +/- numbers would suffer from playing without him a significant amount of the time. Just something to think about. Or something to totally disregard. Your call.

Another loose end: remember this? I was trying to put Manu's playoff offensive efficiency in perspective. I ran those numbers during the middle of the playoffs. Here's how he finished:

1.671 PPFGA / 1.524 PPFGA w/o 3PT line
1.301 PPSA / 1.187 PPSA w/o 3PT line

If you narrow the range to players scoring over 20 PPG in at least 10 games then Manu's PPFGA is the best since Adrian Dantley in the 1985 playoffs. Shaq's best playoff performance was 1.595 PPFGA in 1995.

Lastly, my friend and Sonics fan over at Booth52 finally makes a decision on who's better, Manu or Ray? It's a must read if for nothing more than the "damn muther bastard" line.

Who Does Michael Finley Think He Is?

2005-10-19T22:27:00.000-07:00

The third big off-season acquisition was Michael Finley, a benefactor of the "Allan Houston" rule (who, ironically, wasn't waived using the rule sharing his name). In my opinion this is a much bigger addition than Van Exel. Before getting into why, I would like to point out that the Spurs acquired this Michael Finley, who shouldn't be confused with this Michael Finley.

He may have some grey in his beard, but the guy can certainly still play. He's no longer a first option on the offensive end like he used to be but he can hit the open jumper. In fact, over the past 3 years he's shot 39.4% from 3, which is only 0.8% lower than Brent Barry.

Ah good ol' Brent Barry. Here's a summary of any number of phone calls I got from da Blade during the playoffs:

This Matty: "Maaaaaaaaaaatttttttttttttttttty!"
The Other Matty: "Is it possible to cut a guy during the playoffs? How about during the game? Can we just send Brent Barry home at half time? He's HORRIBLE. He needs to be taken behind the barn and SHOT."

Now Matty can exaggerate at times, but Barry did disappoint for most of the playoffs (though he shot 42% from 3). Finley does not possess the same ball handling or passing skills as Barry, but he is certainly a better shot creator. And defensively? Well, I don't have any hard evidence, bit Michael has to be a better on the ball defender. Barry got torched repeatedly during the playoffs; not for lack of effort or bad positioning. He's just what NBA Insiders call "slow."

Something else worth noting: Finley has played a LOT of minutes in his career. He averaged 36.8 MPG last year, his lowest total since the 96-97 season. He will undoubtedly get much more rest this year. That, combined with having a larger portion of his shots created for him, should lead to a more efficient offensive player.

So, similar to the Van Exel addition, this was a no-brainer. He's a certain upgrade over a guy who got major minutes during last year's playoffs (Barry) and he's actually $2 million a year cheaper AND younger.

But I'm still concerned. It's probably nothing. But I heard something. Something the Indiana Pacers announcers said for the 30 seconds they weren't talking about Danny Granger. Something about starting Finley and bringing Ginobili off the bench. They probably don't know what they're talking about. And I haven't heard anything about this from the San Antonio press. But still. This is a very bad idea. It's hard for me not to write 1000 words about how ridiculous this idea is. But until I hear it from Pop's mouth I'll do my best to exhibit restraint. But humor me; allow me this little bit:

1. You do not have your second best player (and best player during the playoffs) coming off the bench. Was Pippen ever benched? McHale? Jabbar? Kobe? Yes, I know finishing games is what counts. I know Ginobili cannot play 40 minutes a game. And I am quite aware of Spurs Playoff Rule #1: "Either Duncan or Manu must be on the court at all times." I know bringing him off the bench facilitates adherence to SPR#1. But, but BUT:

2. Spurs Playoff Rule #2: "If your name doesn't end with "uncan" or "obili" you do not create your own shot during crunch time." Starting Finley sends the wrong message. What if Michael Finley starts thinking he's the same Michael Finley who once averaged 23 PPG? What if he forgets that he was brought in to shoot wide open jumpers and play better defense than Brent Barry? What if this rubs off on Van Exel? What if Fabricio teams up with Manu and convinces the whole team to carry man-purses? What if Oberto's golden locks distract onlookers from the glory that is Duncan's burgeoning afro? What if JC steals back Eva? THINK ABOUT THE CHILDREN PEOPLE!

Ahem. Got a little carried away there. Made a little too much of that. The thought probably hasn't even crossed Pop's mind. Which is good. BECAUSE I WILL CUT THAT SON OF A BITCH IF HE DISRESPECTS THE SICKNESS.

So how fucking awful was that preseason game? I think it gave me a polyp. Did anybody hear the Pacers announcers call Tinsley the "best ball-handler in the game" or some shit like that? How would you have felt if you actually paid to watch that game?

Everybody seems to be talking about the new dress code. Hell, even Timmeh chimed in, calling it "basically retarded." You would think David Stern could find better ways to spend his time. Like, I don't know, finding some referees who know their ass from a hole in the ground. Or maybe shortening the playoffs. Or explaining why the NBA doesn't sell DVDs of the playoffs. Seriously, why can't I go to Best Buy and pay $100 for all 7 games of the NBA Finals? I can get every full season of Doogie Howser, M.D. but I cannot buy a DVD of any single playoff game. That's "basically retarded," too.

But noooooo, Stern is worried that NBA players don't dress like the CEOs of the corporate sponsors that buy the commercial slots and luxury boxes. God, WHO GIVES A SHIT? These guys didn't go to the Wharton School, OK? They don't have MBAs or the desire to work their way up to middle management. Don't give me this "It's a business" bullshit. Prostitution is a business, too. And Lord knows I don't want my hos showing up in pant suits.

It's Go Time!! (Sort Of)

2005-10-18T15:08:00.000-07:00

According to the fine folks over at the best Spurs message board, tonight's preseason game with the Pacers will be televised via NBA League Pass (which is free during the preseason). Tip-off should be around 7 p.m. central time. This will be the first time I've seen a Spurs game since Game 7; my first look at Fabri, Finli and Van Exi in Spurs uniforms.

I hope Pop employs the recently written (as in 2 minutes ago) Artest Rule.

The Artest Rule: No Spurs player of any consequence shall be allowed on the court with Ron Artest unless the game is of utmost importance.

Seriously. Keep him AWAY from Ginobili. Please. El hombre es loco.

A Quick Poll

2005-10-17T22:54:00.000-07:00

The following is a quote from Jacob Riis.

"When nothing seems to help, I go look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that blow that did it, but all that had gone before."

Please take the time to answer the poll below.

Here's the relation. I'll explain the point of this poll in due time.

Nick (the Quick?) Van Exel

2005-10-13T20:49:00.000-07:00

The second of the Spurs' trio of acquisitions this past off-season was Nick Van Exel. Nick was brought in for four reasons:

1) He has a reputation for "taking and hitting the big shot."
2) He was willing to sign a one-year deal for the LLE ($1.14 million; teams can only use this once every two years).
3) Tony parker has a reputation for "disappearing in big games."
4) Beno Udrih ended his season with 5 bad games.

If you watched the NBA Finals you are probably aware that Udrih had all sorts of problems bringing the ball up against Lindsey Hunter. The rookie PG managed 8 TOs despite playing only 44 minutes the entire series. That's one TO every 5.5 minutes. Ouch. It's interesting to note that in the three other series he limited his TOs to one every 16.3 minutes, actually bettering his regular season rate of 14.9. Nick's career rate? 15.6 M/TO. That's a significant improvement over Beno when you consider that Nick has consistently been relied upon to create shots.

Does Tony disappear in playoff games? Sometimes. His disappearances always seem to coencide with the opponent learning to not respect his jump shot. Ah... Tony Parker's jump shot. The only thing keeping The Wee Frenchman from being a perennial All Star. Let's hope this guy lives up to his billing.

As bad as Udrih was against the Pistons, I think Tony's issues have almost as much to do with Nick's acquisition. Because Nick Van Exel can hit the open jumper. Well, that's his reputation anyway. He's actually a career 40.5 shooter (35.8% from 3), but his eFG% on jumpers was 47.4% last year compared to 40.5% for Tony.

But at least we know he's a clutch player. Um. Maybe? Everyone seems to remember the run he had with the Mavericks in 2003: 19.5 PPG, 46%FG, 39%3P. He was HUGE. Of course the year before he SUCKED ASS. 11.1 PPG on 12.6 FGA, 37%FG, 21%3P. This remind you of anybody? Hmm. Maybe Robert Horry? Shoots 2-38 from behind the arc for the Lakers in 03 and then 38-85 for the Spurs in 05... make sense of that.

There's another issue here: Nick's defense. He turns 34 this year and it shows. Dan Rosenbaum's adjusted +/- ratings (scroll down) show Nick is one of the worst defensive PGs in the league based on his performance the past three years. Not surprising, really. What is surprising is that Beno is ranked 5th. Huh? What? But, um, he's, uh, Slovenian.

Before you go discounting all of Dan's work you should know that he would probably be the first to tell you that Udrih's ranking is based on a very small sample size and more data is necessary to get an accurate portrayal of his true ability. Do I think he's a top 5 defensive point guard? No. But he certainly never struck me as bad. Certainly not as good as Parker, whose rating is probably dragged down by his 02-03 and 03-04 seasons (he's a much better defensive player now).

Am I implying the Spurs should not have added Van Exel? Of course not. This signing was an absolute no brainer. He's certainly a better ball-handler than Udrih and a better shooter than Parker. He's inexpensive and from all accounts willing to play a smaller-than-usual role. It's a luxury to have an experienced player with talent as an insurance policy. But that's all I see him as. If he gets big playoff minutes it will likely be due to (mainly) Parker's and (somewhat) Udrih's failures to improve. Tony and Beno are the future; Nick is a stop-gap. A very, very good stop-gap.

Better?

2005-10-12T23:13:00.000-07:00

Worse? Doesn't matter? Didn't even notice the changes?

What I need is a spiffy logo/title bar thingy like the fellas over at SuperSonicSoul have. A spiffy logo to go with my entirely pedestrian and unimaginative blog name. Unfortunately my Photoshop abilities pale in comparison to my HTML "skills."

Thoughts on Nick Van Exel coming late Thursday night...

No, This Post Isn't About Last Night's Exhibition Game

2005-10-11T01:18:00.000-07:00

It’s Allen Iverson’s fault. Seriously. You see I had him at #10 in the silly, everyone-in-their-right-mind-knew-we-wouldn’t-finish list that The Guamish and I (feebly) started during the off season. The short, short off season. Has Manu’s thigh bruise even heeled yet?

Now I know what my six regular readers are thinking. “Wait a second. This is the same guy that suckles at the teat that is Manu Ginobili’s PPFGA? How can he possibly have Iverson that high?” In the end, I just couldn’t do it; stopped half way through the post. Couldn’t get past the gaudy FGA numbers and his recent frailty.

Don’t get me wrong. I love AI as a basketball player. Unfortunately, being a good basketball player and being a good NBA basketball player are not one in the same. Scoop Jackson said as much in one of his first columns for ESPN.com.

I believe Allen Iverson is the best player in the game.

I believe Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are better than him.

Watching Iverson makes me want to play ball again; scrounges up memories of intramural games in college. Not because I ever played with anyone with 1/10th the talent as The Answer (though I *think* I once got alley-ooped on by Michael “Shitty” Schmidt). But I have been schooled by guys with good cross-overs and smooth pull-up jumpers in the lane; players with basketball skills that could theoretically extrapolate out to what Iverson has. His game at least translates to what we’ve all experienced. He’s not simply a physical freak whos size is best exploited on a basketball court. He’s a pure baller who seemingly loves the same game I grew up with. And that game didn’t involve 6’10 guys swatting my shot to half-court. But, then again, it didn’t involve posses and diamond earrings, either.

I felt dirty dropping him out of the top 10, despite knowing he probably doesn’t belong in the top 20. I ended up deleting everything I had written and just sort of gave up. There was of course more to it than that:

1. My boss fell ill which led to a temporary promotion (while still doing my old job) and long hours.

2. Writing wasn’t fun anymore.

3. I spent a weekend in San Francisco due to a friends’ wedding.

4. A vacation in Ocean Shores which coencided with The Wife’s birthday. Which explains why I agreed to go horseback riding with a crazy one-legged guide who was hitting on a teenager the whole time and told me he knew of some guys who killed some other guys and threw them in the bay.

Did you know that if you are on a horse and the horse starts peeing you are supposed to lean forward?

Scared Teenager’s Sister: “Ha ha your horse is peeing.”
Crazy One-Legged Guide: “Lean forward. …. I SAID LEAN FORWARD!!!”

The Wife later informed me that leaning forward eases the pressure on the horses bladder. Apparently this is common knowledge to every former Texan but me.

Speaking of the finer details of horse waste, did you know that when a horse defecates it basically inverts its rectum? Sorry. My horse was slow. Just be glad I didn’t search for an image link. You know you would have looked.

So I apologize for going AWOL and sincerely appreciate the requests to come back. Don’t let the nearly total lack of Spurs content in this post fool you; I will be watching every game and writing about the Spurs all season.

I have a lot of plans for this blog; some loose ends to tie up from last season. I will also be going through all my old emails and updating my links sections. I hope to add some features (Podcasts maybe?) and there may be some other surprises that will surely disappoint everyone but me. Suggestions are welcome, encouraged and FDA approved. And of course my thoughts regarding the additions of Van Exel and Finley will be coming later this week. (No, really, they will.)

Oh. Who took AI’s place in the top 10? Who else?

From 1 to 377

2005-09-01T12:29:00.000-07:00

Note: Updated Wednesday afternoon.

Wade or Lebron? Kobe or T-Mac? Tim or KG? Magic or Bird? Elway or Marino? Willie or Mickey? Marlon or Tito?

Who would you rather have? It's a hard question to resist.

The Guamish and I, beset with the malais of the offseason, decided to do our best to answer that question. Here are the parameters:

The goal is to win an NBA title this year. Presume that team rosters are scrambled after the playoffs. In other words, you only get the player for one year. Also presume that every player makes the same amount of money. Ignore salary cap restrictions and the like. The likelihood of injury (Shaq) or suspension (Artest) should be considered. Eligible players include everyone who was on an NBA roster last year. 2005 draftees are not considered.

Thems the ground rules. Pretty simple.

We took this project upon ourselves without discussing selection methodology. The Guamanian took a more analytical approach than I did; he looked closer at semi-sophisticated stats such as PER. I, on the other hand, decided what type of player I valued the most and generally used only personal impressions from that point on (but, then again, I in general look at stats a lot, so my impression of Corey Maggette includes his offensive efficiency). I haven't seen his list, but it will likely vary greatly from mine. As would yours. In fact, once this is finished, I am confident that 95% of my readers will think of me as a complete ninny.

So The Gauman, aka Booth52, is going to start things off with the first pick (posted around 7 pm PT) and we will alternate from there. I am going to keep this post at the top and fill in players (with links) as we go. Please feel free to comment and/or come up with your own lists.

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Tim Duncan
3. Amare Stoudemire
4. Lebron James
5. Shaquille O'Neal
6. Kobe Bryant
7. Tracy McGrady
8. Dwyane Wade

#8. Dwyane Wade

2005-08-17T12:35:00.000-07:00

Position: SG
Ht. / Wt.: 6'-4" / 212
Age: 23
Fun Fact: Dwyane collects vintage Underoos.

24.1 PPG, 6.8 APG and 5.1 RPG are impressive numbers. But what really impresses me about Dwyane's game is his efficiency. 1.41 PPFGA is excellent, though some may credit Shaq for Wade's increase from 1.24 PPFGA in 03/04 to 1.41 in 04/05. While O'Neal certainly makes Wade's scoring job easier, I think most of the kudos belong to Dwyane and his willingness to take the ball agressively to the basket. He increased his FTA/MIN by 76% this past season, which basically accounts for the entire increase in PPFGA.

The only thing lacking in his offensive game is the 3P shot. He's got the mid-range jumper and he's quick enough to get by just about everybody. He's also got the strength to get all the way to the basket and finish. He was turnover prone last year, likely due to him playing some point guard. This number should come down with the responsible ball handler White Chocolate in the mix.

Dwyane Wade blocked 1.1 shots per game last year. What the hell?

That's all I got.

#6. Kobe Bryant

2005-08-05T12:10:00.000-07:00

Position: SG
Ht. / Wt.: 6'-6" / 220
Age: 27
Fun Fact: Kobe's owns a large collection of turnips naturally shaped like ABA legends.

Ah, the player people love to hate. I've been a Spurs fan for over 15 years, so I have had the torturous experience of watching Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in numerous playoff games. But I never hated Kobe Bryant. I strongly disliked Shaq and I hoped and prayed for the demise of Derek Fisher, but Kobe? To be blunt, he's too skilled of a player to hate.

And he killed the Spurs. Over and over and over again. Just off the top of my head?

The 2002 playoffs, game 4 in San Antonio. The Lakers led the series 2-1, with each team suffering home losses. The series and the NBA title felt up for grabs. The Spurs had an 8 point lead going into the fourth quarter. Being the Spurs, they quickly squandered the lead and the game was tied with under a minute to go. Kobe dribbles the ball off his foot and Derek Fisher scrambles to retrieve. DF shoots a pull up jumper that hits back iron. Kobe (outscored SA by himself in the fourth quarter; 12 to 10), from out of nowhere, outleaps David Robinson and Tim Duncan to grab the offensive rebound. He pogoes off the ground and lays the ball with his left hand. Like it was nothing. I don't even think either Spurs big man got off the ground again.

You know what I remember thinking? "Just FUCK it. He's just way, WAY better than anybody we got. And he wants it more."

Another game 4 comes to mind, this time in the 2004 playoffs. This time the Spurs were up 2-1 and the game was in LA. SA was up 10 points at half. Kobe scored 24 points in the second half (42 for the game) and LA cruised to an 8 point victory. He made numerous tough shots despite constantly going up against either Bowen or Ginobili. At what point he made a running left hander from outside the lane. Again, "Just FUCK it. He's too good."

See, I never understood this whole "Shaq is the most dominant player in the game." As a Spurs fan I was always WAY more scared of Kobe. He was seemingly always the guy who would kill us down the stretch. He was the guy breaking down the defense and putting the dagger in our hearts. He was the guy with the ball in his hand at money time.

Am I saying that Shaq cannot be the most dominant player in the game because he's never the primary option in the fourth quarter? Yeah, I am. Is that simple-minded? Yes. But it's certainly no more simple minded than dubbing Shaq MDPOAT because he dunks the ball a lot and has a pretty smile and a notoriously large wang. Which is the only justification I've ever heard.

Anyways. Kobe is still the same player that murdered the spurs repeatedly when it counted. He's an efficient scorer (1.37 PPFGA last year) who can beat you in a lot of different ways. He's also at least a good defender (though possibly not warranting his 1st team all NBA defense award). He'll play big minutes and take (and make) the big shot. He rebounds well for his position (6.0 PG) and is a good passer. And I hope the Spurs never, EVER (period) face him in the playoffs again.

#4. Lebron James

2005-08-03T13:13:00.000-07:00

Position: SF
Ht. / Wt.: 6'-8" / 240
Age: 21
Fun Fact: Over the summer the Akron Star Beacon ran an article that declared that, contrary to public speculation, Lebron's big endorsement deals (Nike, Sprite) did NOT include a bonus for playing in a large market. Sorry Knicks (and Lakers and Bulls) fans.

I don't have a huge problem with Booth going with Amare at #3. That's a few spots higher than I had him, bue he is undeniably a frightful force with lots of TUP. The two big questions are

1. When will he commit to defense?
2. How much of his production is do to Steve Nash? Another important thing to note is some of his success against the Spurs was due to Pop's emphasis on defending the 3. I cannot recall a single time Amare was double-teamed.

Of course question #1 also applies to who I picked for #3. Because Lebron James doesn't play defense. At all. Well, he does rebound. 6 defensive boards a game from a 3 is very good. But have you ever spent a game just watching him the whole time? On the defensive end he often clearly has no idea where his man is. He floats around trying to make the big play; the steal with the windmill finish. It's not quite on the level of And1 type defense; more like college intramurals.

That's easy to fix, though. He definitely has the ability and size to be at least an average defender. All it takes is him realizing he needs to exert some effort on that end in order to get to the top of the heap. It's not like he's the first player in NBA history to develop his offensive game before its equally important counterpart. That's the NBA modus operandi folks.

On the offensive end? Well, he's already the best offensive player in the league. I don't even think there's a need for discussion. 27.2 PPG with 7.2 APG? At age 20? On a team with no serious outside threat? Here's a question: what numbers would Lebron have put up as PG of PHX last year? 33 and 11? I think I just peed myself.

And he's NOT a volume scorer: 1.29 PPFGA last year which put him at 36th in the NBA (just ahead of Timmeh!). This will go up as he learns the ins and outs of drawing fouls. Speaking of learning, his numbers went up dramatically from his rookie season. Not just the counting stats, either. FG% went up 5.5%. 3P% up by 6.1%. AST up, TO down. Steals up, rebounding rate up. FTA up. Everything up. I'm not saying he's going to make the same magnitude of improvement this year, but it's clear he's making adjustments.

The big knock on Lebron is that his teams haven't made the playoffs. This, of course, is a stupid argument. During the last month of the season he put up 32, 10, 7 and 2.3 steals while playing 45 MPG. What the fuck else was he supposed to do? He could have played better defense, but cut the guy some slack. No one player can be held responsible for the success or failure of his team, especially when that team has Ira Newble playing 25 minutes a game.

Some may question picking him above Shaq. Well, I simply wouldn't be willing to risk losing Shaq to injury when a player the caliber of Lebron is left on the board. Call it risk assessment or value engineering... I call it common sense.

Speaking of Shaq, onto number 5!

#2. Tim Duncan

2005-08-02T11:07:00.000-07:00

Position: PF / C
Ht / Wt: 6'-11" / 260
Age: 29
Fun Fact: Tim's wife had a baby girl soon after game 7 of the NBA finals. It's their first child. I think they named her Sydney, or maybe it was Parker Duncan Ginobili Duncan.

The Big Fundamental. Groundhog Day. The Cornerstone. Rookie of the Year. Two time league MVP. Three time NBA Finals MVP. One time NBA All Star Game MVP. The only significant qualitative award he has not won is Defensive Player of the Year. Which is extremely comical considering he is quite simply, without a doubt, quite frankly, unequivocally the most efficacious defensive player in the NBA.

DPOY should never, EVER (period) go to a guy under 6'-10". Look, the NBA is not a one-on-one matchup. Being a lockdown perimeter defender will only get you so far if you don't have somebody to funnel towards. First of all, a non-negligible part of defense is rebounding. You can run Tayshaun, Ron, Bruce, Larry and AI out there and they'll get scorched. 75% of defensive stops end with a rebound. Second of all, all great defensive teams have somebody anchoring the middle. Defending the basket. Blocking and changing shots.

Timmeh! excels at defensive rebounding and blocking shots. He's also a terrific help defender, which is what the Spurs defense is built around (and probably the most underrated aspect of what produces wins in the NBA). Rotate, rotate, rotate; he's virtually never out of position. It's quite a remarkable thing to watch.

One last thing I'll mention; he's virtually the perfect teammate. He's a team first guy who's willing to get blasted on the sideline by his coach. He doesn't draw attention to himself. He's unselfish on both ends of the court. The only quibble you can have with the guy is that he doesn't stick up for his guys as much as one would like. Which, in the grand scheme of things, is nearly irrelevant.

Now on to numero tres.

Spurs Add Another Argentinian

2005-07-14T10:31:00.000-07:00

The Spurs have come to an agreement with Fabricio Oberto, a compatriot to both Ginobili and Luis Scola.

Fabricio is a 30 year old (March) 6'-10" 243# C/PF who averaged 14 and 7 last year for Parmesa, a Spanish team. He was part of Argentina's gold medal winning Olympic team and put up 6 PTS, 6 REB and 4 AST in 18 minutes against the US before getting has hand broken by a Stephon Marbury chop.

According to DraftCity.com (and various other internet articles), Fabricio has good footwork which contributes to a quality low post game and he can also hit the 14-16 foot jumper. His best attribute on the offensive end is his passing ability. He's a physical defender and consistently gets good rebounding position. Like other Argentinians you may be familiar with, he plays the game with a high level of passion and intensity. His biggest weaknesses are his high foul rate and horrible free throw shooting (~50%).

The terms of his contract are unknown. A factor that hinders many foreign players is their contract buyout held by the European team they currently play for. NBA teams are only allowed to pay about $350 000 of a players buyout (above the contract value) which is typically much less than the buyout amount. Fabricio's buyout was apparently lower than average; around $750 000.

The consensus seems to be that his Spurs contract will be for around $1.5 million a year; about the value of the LLE. The LLE is separate from the MLE, which is what the Nets hope to use to sign SAR. In the previous CBA, the LLE could be used to sign a player for a maximum of two years. According to an article on RealGM.com, "All cap exceptions will remain unchanged" in the new CBA. Personally, I find it hard to believe a player would leave his European team for a total of ~$3.2 million for two years; especially when he has to pay about $400 000 for his own buyout. Therefore it's likely the contract is for more than two years and consequently uses part of the Spurs MLE, which obviously affects their ability to sign free agents such as Scola or Stephen Hunter. Note: I finally got around to reading Chad Ford's chat; he said the deal is for 3 years according to Oberto's agent.

This signing certainly reduces the likelyhood of adding Scola though the two certainly aren't mutually exclusive. Luis may want more of the MLE than the Spurs have remaining or are willing to pay. SA now has 5 big men signed: Timmeh!, Rasho, Horry, Nazr and Fabricio. Giving significant money to a 6th big man seems a wee bit redundant. Rasho and Nazr are trade candidates, but I don't see the former going anywhere before the season starts. The Spurs need to know exactly what they have in Nazr and Fabricio before shipping off The Solid Slovenian.

So what will the Spurs do? I, of course, don't know for sure, but I would guess they leave Scola in Europe. They could presumably trade his rights, but I'm not sure what they could get for him, which is a function of perceived value and CBA rules. I see them using the first half of the season to evaluate Nazr (both his abilities and value to other teams as a free agent) and Oberto and then attempt to trade either Mohammed or Rasho at the deadline (theoretically to fill a need).

What will Fabricio add to the team? Hopefully, at minimum, a more skilled and younger version of Tony Massenburg. If he can come off the bench and give us 15 minutes of passionate, aggressive and hard-nosed post play I'll be happy. Speaking of Massenburg...

The Spurs have been missing something ever since Rodman left, and I am not talking about the cross-dressing. Some people label it "toughness," but that's not quite right. I cannot put a word to what "it" is, but I have an example of a player demonstrating "it."

"It" happened during the PHX series; I cannot recall which game. If I recall correctly, the outcome had already been decided, which led to Tony Massenburg getting some playing time. For whatever reason Amare was still in the game was posting up Tony up. Stoudemire unleashed a wicked awesome spin move and easily got by Massenburg. Tony, having "it," hacked the ever living shit out of him, a borderline semi-dirty considering circumstances.

Basically, "it" tells the other team that there's at least a chance somebody gonna get fucked up. Just puts it in the back of their mind. A proverbial "shot across the bow."

So, uh, got a little sidetracked there. What does "it" have to do with Fabricio? Well, it sounds like he could have that in him. And, if you ask Sean Marks, he might say Oberto has "it."

If any of my European or Argentinian readers have seen Fabricio play please feel free to add your comments/thoughts/opinions.

******

Today Jerome James agreed to a 5 year deal with the Knicks worth $29. Here's what you need to know about JJ:

-He's never averaged more than 5.4 PPG.
-He's never averaged more than 4.2 RPG.
-He's never played more than 16.9 MPG.
-He's played more than 65 games once in his career.
-He turns 30 at the beginning of next season.
-He's perennially out of shape.
-He's lazy, lethargic, unmotivated and kicks puppies in his spare time.
-He has tremendous downside potential.

Why would the Knicks spend practically their entire MLE this early on Jerome James? Were other teams beating down his door? Offering him almost a max MLE deal like the Knicks just gave him? The Sonics, who currently don't even have a semi-reliable center, didn't even want him. Shouldn't that be a hint? Did Isiah's cable go out during the entire regular season?

Unbelieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeevable.

Money Talks

2005-07-06T20:43:00.000-07:00

Nate McMillan is now the coach of the Portland Trailblazers, leaving behind a Sonics team he's been with for the past 17 years. SEA president and CEO Wally Walker had the following to say: "Our last compensation discussion detailed a proposal that on average would have made Nate one of the five highest paid active NBA coaches." Kevin Calabro, Sonics' television broadcaster (and one of the best), mentioned reading an article that stated Paul Allen went so far as to double SEA's offer, which was rumored to be $4-4.5 millon. Wow.

Some people may lambast Nate for forsaking his team; for following the cash. Personally, I think this was a total no-brainer. First of all, yes, I know that $4 million a year is a lot of money. But you know what? $8 million is a lot more. If you say you wouldn't take the extra cash you are either:

A) Lying.
B) Stupid.
C) Already filthy, filthy rich.
D) One of the few remaining ascetic monks in the Pyrenees of Spain. Which means you should stop indulging in the internet. Sinner.

What's even better is that there's no way McMillan can lose. Even if Portland continues to stink; even if their players continue to get arrested or suspended for disabordination; who's going to blame Nate? It will just be the same old Trailblazers. And if they turn it around? Actually manage to make the playoffs in the next two years? Nate's a damn genius. Plus, as Calabro pointed out on the local Fox affiliate, he's only 3 hours away from his home in SEA. He doesn't have to uproot his family or even buy a new house.

And let's be honest; it's not like he was leaving a team on the brink of a championship. Their best player is a 29 year old (30 before the next season starts) shooting guard who's merely an adequate defender and is getting paid $16 million a year for the next five years. They are hemorrhaging money due to a horrible arena deal they cannot get out of. They have a slew of free agents and their best big man as of now is Nick Collison (who I like, but still).

What's really interesting is the timing of the whole thing. Why did Nate wait until the Sonics signed Allen? Based on media reports it was pretty clear that the prevailing feeling was that Nate would return if SEA locked up Ray. Obviously not. What happened?

Did Paul Allen up the ante after Allen's deal was announced?

Or did Nate purposely hold out in order to help Ray get his deal? And if so, why? Out of respect for Ray? Because he was angry at the Sonics for not extending his contract before the season and wanted to make them pay through the nose? You always here that Nate is a defensive-minded coach. Ray Allen is not a defensive-minded player. I would love to believe that Nate didn't think the Sonics would ever win with Ray and therefore baited them into sealing their fate for the next five years. But then again I don't like Ray Allen, so that's probably just a wee bit far-fetched.

ANOTHER issue is that SEA lost their best assistant coach (Casey) to MIN last month. He almost definitely would have had the job (and probably would have wanted it, too). Now the Sonics are almost forced to going out and getting someone like Flip Saunders. It will be real hard to bring a rookie coach into this situation.

Wow. Intentionally or not, Paul Allen and Nate McMillan sure managed to throw a big wrench into SEA's plans.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim to the Spurs?

2005-07-06T13:06:00.000-07:00

During today's ESPN.com chat Chad Ford said the following regarding SAR:

The problem is that several other teams like the Spurs are talking sign-and-trade with the Blazers. That allows them to pay more money. The Blazers are trying to work out a Rasho Nesterovic for Abdur-Rahim swap.

I will assume that, as Spurs fans, you are familiar with The Solid Slovenian and his abilities. Shareef is a 28 (Dec birthday) year old 6'-9" 245# smower forward. He is probably best known as being a good player on very bad teams. He's never been on a team with a winning record. Now, if we apply the same logic that some Spurs fans apply to Kevin Garnett we will come to the conclusion that his team's lack of success diminishes the relevance of his stats. He must not be a leader. He's certainly not a gamer. He's definitely doesn't want to win.

That, of course, is a load of shit. The truth, as I see it, is that SAR is a very good offensive player:

19.8 PPG on 15.2 FGA --> 1.303 PPFGA (Timmeh's career number is 1.324)
6.6 FTAPG / 81.6% FT
0.2-0.7 from 3 / 30.6%
46.9% FG
8.1 RPG
0.8 BPG
1.1 SPG
2.7 APG
2.8 TOPG

What stands out to me is how efficient a scorer he is. There is some truth that one should be wary of player that scores a lot of points on a bad team. That's why I like to look at points per FGA or shot attempt; it gives you a better idea of how good a scorer the player is. My favorite whipping boy, Antoine Walker, has a career PPFGA of 1.065 (please sign him Isiah; it would make my summer). Spot the difference folks.

I also like the fact that he gets to the line and shoots a high percentage from the charity stripe. He only averages 1.1 less FTA per game than Duncan. He's a good 3P% shooter for his size; which is a blessing when one takes less than 1 a game but a curse when one takes 5 a game (hi Antoine!).

I cannot say much about his defense, other than he's certainly not none for it. I don't think he can guard most 3s, which makes him a back up to Duncan (though Duncan could obviously play C when SAR comes off the bench). As long as he provides consistent effort and good rotations his offensive abilities will more than make up for any deficiencies on the defensive end.

So, assuming Chad Ford isn't full of it, should the Spurs make the trade? Well, it depends. On a lot of things. I'm all for it given the following conditions:

A) Pop and Company are reasonably certain that Nazr can and will improve his defensive rotations and pick and roll defense AND that they can extend him for a reasonable price (no more than $7.5 million a year).

B) Pop and Company are going to further emphasize fast break offense next season. A lineup of Parker, Ginobili, Bowen, SAR and Tim would be one of the fastest in the league (and loaded with finishers).

C) Pop and Company are prepared to deal with The Curse of the Solid Slovenian.

One obvious positive aspect of this deal is the fact the Spurs would still have the MLE available. Assuming this trade goes down, here's how they should use it (assuming Scola excepts the LLE):

Offer the entire MLE to Stephen Hunter. Yes, I'm serious. I love this guy. He has a lot of tremendous upside potential. He's 23. He's a legit 7'. He can run the floor. He's athletic. Freakish, even. He's got a little bit of mean streak in him. And he blocked 4.5 shots per 48 minutes last year. That's, uh, like a lot and stuff. Like, uh, 3rd in the NBA. Granted, Tim tore him apart in the playoffs, but I think you can at least somewhat teach one-on-one defense. You can't teach being a 7' gazelle-like ball swatting machine.

Maybe PHX matches. Fine. Make them use up their financial reserves. Now somebody get Danny Ferry on the horn and convince him to offer Joe Johnson a max contract.

Keep Your Pants On

2005-07-05T22:16:00.000-07:00

Last week you probably read about Horry's agent saying that Rob was considering playing for the Heat next season. This was enough to send a lot of Spurs fans into panic mode. It's one thing to lose him; but to the Heat? Shaq's team? NOT IF I HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT. Which, of course, I don't.

Thankfully Holt and Company took care of business and Horry has agreed to a 3 year deal. It's essentially a two year deal with a team option for the third. The rest of the terms are of course undisclosed at the moment. The contract length surprised me; the guy turns 35 before next season even starts. But, hey, he's Big Shot Brob. Considering...

A) The Spurs would never have beaten the Pistons without him and
B) He made only ~$1.2 million this season...

...I would have given him a 5 year contract if he demanded it.

The Spurs owned Horry's "Bird rights" which means they didn't have to spend any of the MLE to sign him. They will hopefully use some of that to bring over Luis Scola. I see the two guys as linked in the sense Luis, if adequate, will get some of Horry's regular season minutes. Got to keep him fresh for money time.

Video Clip of Ian

2005-06-29T15:54:00.000-07:00

Thanks to Kori Ellis of spurstalk.com (and WOAI) for the link.

Needs to Work On: Overall Skills

2005-06-28T21:17:00.000-07:00

Ian Mahinmi

That's the newest Spurs folks. Pronounced "Yawn." He was the only first round draft pick that I had never heard of. Here are the specifics:

-6'-10", 230# 18 year old PF from France

-Former volleyball player who has only played basketball for 4 years

-Strengths (from nbadraft.net): Ian is a real monster in the paint, using his good athleticism and long arms to grab tons of boards ... Reads the ball well off the rim, and even when he doesn't read it, his pure athleticism usually leads to the rebound ... Great length, wingspan and reflexes allow him to grab lots of long rebounds that would bounce right over most other player's heads... Defensively he is a beast ... Incredible reach allows him to alter and/or block shots other players wouldn't even think of contesting ... Has very quick hands, leading to lots of steals and tipped balls ... When Ian does score, many of his baskets come off tip ins and offensive rebounds ... This could account for his high shooting percentage (18-30 at 60% in Zaragoza) ... Very good at establishing position in the paint, reads the play very well when making cuts and calling for the ball ... Gets the ball in good position under the basket drawing lots of fouls ... A solid free throw shooter for a post player (70%) ... In fact, many of the points he scores come from free throws ... Runs the floor very well, and is one of those hustle players coaches always want on their team ... Always goes for the loose ball, blocked shot, or hustle rebound ... Has decent court vision when around the basket ... Foot work is good around the basket, but needs to add some moves to his arsenal ... His potential is considerable.

-Weaknesses (from same): At this point in his basketball career, he is still very raw and what many would call a "project" ... Still very raw offensively .... Has no shot outside of 8-10 feet ... Limited offensive skills, besides rebounding and dunking ... Strength is his biggest question mark right now. He is very good at establishing position down low, but is rarely strong enough to keep it ... Must pout on weight without losing much agility, but he's such a strong athlete, that shouldn't be a problem ... The same goes for rebounding... Must get better at anticipating shots and not try to block everything ...

-R.C. Buford said they would leave him in Europe for a couple of years.

-He was actually at the draft, so evidently he knew he was getting picked.

-My first thought at seeing him: Oh. My. God. Really long arms. Tall and lean. To be honest, I am sort of glad they drafted someone I've never heard of. Makes you think the Spurs found someone no one knew about. He sure looks like he has tremendous upside potential.

That's the only pick the Spurs had. They will certainly bring in some undrafted free agents for summer camp. I hope they take a look at Jawad Williams, the other North Carolina Tar Heel who played a big role in their title. 6'-9" tough guy who can shoot it. Of course there will probably be 15 teams inviting him to camp.

Stop Whatever You're Doing

2005-06-28T12:14:00.000-07:00

Bill Simmons' top 60 NBA draft moments from the last 8 years.

2005 NBA Draft Preview

2005-06-27T22:03:00.000-07:00

Ah, the NBA draft. A special time for all NBA fans and especially intriguing for Spurs followers. Buford, Pop and company have shown a knack for finding quality players at all points of the draft. Here are the Spur selections from the past 6 years:

2004
Beno Udrih
Viktor Sanikidze (traded this year 2nd round pick for him)
Romain SAAAAAATO!

2003
Leandrinho Barbosa (traded away)

2002
John Salmons (traded away)
Luis Scola (third to last pick of the draft)
Randy Holcomb (traded away)

2001
Tony Parker (last pick of first round)
Bryan Bracey

2000
Chris Carrawell

1999
Leon Smith
Manu Ginobili (second to last pick)

None of those picks were higher than the 20s. They've been remarkably successful. John Hollinger went back through a bunch of drafts to reorder them; who should have been drafted at the top if we knew then what we know now. Here's what he came up with:

1999 - Ginobili 4th behind Brand, Kirilenko and Marion (and ahead of Francis, Miller and Davis)
2001- Parker 4th behind Gasol, Arenas and Randolph
2002- Luis Scola 10th

That's right. The guy (thanks to Doug for the link) hasn't even played a game in the NBA and Hollinger has him above the likes of Dunleavy Jr. and Darius Songaila. If you read that link above you would know that Skip Bayless said the following about Scola: "Luis Scola almost certainly will be a better NBA player than anyone who will be drafted Tuesday night." Uh. Wow.

Of course Skip Bayless may be a little crazy, going on to say that NBA people had doubts about whether Tim Duncan should be the #1 pick. Uh. Really? Does anyone remember this?

The majority of Spurs fans have heard of him. He's a 6'-8" Argentinian PF who's been playing in Europe for quite some time now. From what I've read he has a well-developed offensive game and is an "energy guy." His team got to the Euro League finals and he was a teammate of Manu's on the gold medal winning team (actually led them in scoring in the gold medal game). The Spurs will likely use part of their MLE to bring him over.

The Spurs get so much respect when it comes to the draft that they could probably draft me and still get a B+. I can picture Jay Bilas now:

"Well, he's a little old at 28. He's also a little short at 5'-10". His weight isn't listed, but he looks a little rotund. He couldn't make his high school team but he has a sweet jumper and is a good rebounder for his height. He'll make an impact."

So what do the Spurs need? Let's take a look at the roster.

PG
Tony Parker
Beno Udrih

SG
The Sickness
Brent Barry

SF
Bruce Bowen

PF
Timmeh!
Robert Horry
Luis Scola

C
The Solid Slovenian
Nazr Mohammed

That's 10 guys. They'll probably bring back Devin Brown (the Spurs have his early Bird rights and I doubt they will have trouble resigning him (if they're interested)). Sean Marks and LJ III would likely be cheap. They obviously have a huge need at 3. They are not deep at that position and Bowen is already 34. LJ III is a 3, but the guy hasn't played regular NBA minutes in well over a year. Devin Brown is only 6'-5". The Sanikidze kid they have stashed over in Europe is a 3, but he's only 19 or 20 and a couple of years away.

Yeah, I know, Glenn Robinson. I'm not sure SA can afford him. Will he sign for 2-3 million a year? I doubt it. And even if he would I'm not sure they Spurs want him.

I've seen the Shareef rumors. First off, he's a 4, not a 3. He cannot guard NBA 3s. Second, he's not coming for less than the full MLE. The Spurs need some of that for Scola. He's their #1 priority from what I understand.

Here's who various mock drafts have the Spurs taking with the 28th pick. For the record, the Spurs traded the last pick of the first round (PHX's) to NY in the Malik Rose trade. They traded their 2nd round pick last year to ATL from The Crown Vik (yeah, I already gave him a nickname).

hoopshype.com- Julius Hodge, 6'-7" SG from NCS
nbadraft.net- Ryan Gomes, 6'-8" SF from Providence
insidehoops.com- Ryan Gomes, 6'-7" SF from Providence (the Spurs should totally draft the taller Ryan Gomes)
probasketball.about.com- Ersan Ilyasova, SF, Turkey
fanball.com- Ersan Ilyasova, SF, Turkey
nbawire.com- Ryan Gomes, 6'-8" SF from Providence
cbs.sportsline.com- Ronny Turiaf, PF, Gonzaga or Francisco Garcia, SG, Louisville or Ryan Gomes
hoopsworld.com- Michael Gelabale, SF, Real Madrid
ESPN.com- Charlie Villanueva, PF, UConn (Chad Ford is on crack; he's the only guy who thinks Villanueva will drop this far)

There's a sampling. Feel free to offer opinions on what the Spurs need and who they should draft. Me? I'm praying Hakim Warrick get's caught with a hooker/marijuana/firearm sometime before the draft. Anything that would drop him about 15-20 spots. He'd be perfect.

Tony Parker Busts a Phat (French) Rhyzime

2005-06-26T13:23:00.000-07:00

No words are necessary.

Sacre bleu!

"I Should Just Let It Go"

2005-06-24T11:41:00.000-07:00

The following are +/- for the Spurs-Pistons series. The first number is the +/- while the player was on the court followed by the +/- while the player was off the court. The third number is the combination of the two. If a player has a positive +/- while on the court it means the Spurs outscored Detroit while he was playing. To give you an idea, here's what my numbers would look like if I played for the Spurs. (Detroit outscored the Spurs by 13 total points in the series.)

Matthew Powell, -413, +400, -813

You could infer from that line that I would not have been very valuable to the Spurs.

Here are the numbers for the main 7 Spurs.

Ginobili, +31, -44, +75
Horry, +14, -27, +41
Parker, -6 , -7 , +1
Duncan, -8, -5, +3
Mohammed, -14, +1, -15
Bowen, -14, +1, -15
Barry, -25, 12, -37

So let me get this straight. The Spurs get outscored while Tim Duncan is on the court and he's the most valuable player? Really? How does this make any sense?

This will bug me for the rest of my life. You could infer from that line that I am a loser.

By the way, at the time of this posting Manu is leading the poll 33 to 29.

By The Skin of Their Teeth

2005-06-23T21:44:00.000-07:00

First things first. Much praise and respect to the Detroit Pistons who frankly, from my perspective, deserved the title as much as San Antonio. They're mental and physical toughness were a marvel to witness. Billups is the truth. Rasheed Wallace is pure basketball talent. Rip is beyond relentless. Tayshaun is on the verge. And Ben? Their are only two Spurs I wouldn't trade for him. In fact, you can pretty much have everybody but Timmeh and The Sickness.

This hasn't fully sunk in yet. I will post a recap of game 7 and a review of the season this weekend. I want to make two comments:

1. Thank the Lord Pop finally switched Bowen onto Billups in the middle of the third. Pardon my ego, but Matty and I were 100% right about that.

2. Tim Duncan is an amazing player. The Spurs would have 0 titles and 0 finals appearances without him. He toughed it out through two sprained ankles against a brutal Piston front line. But he was not the most valuable Spur in the playoffs or the finals. Manu Ginobili was the best Spur in 3 of their 4 victories (Horry the other). He, as much if not more than Duncan, was the man down the stretch tonight. He scored 2 less points on 14 less shots.

There was a reason there was a smattering of boos when Timmeh got the award. The fans of SA know.

Hopefully Bill Simmons will address this tomorrow. He's the one journalist I read who speaks freely on matters such as these.

I realize I am probably biased towards Manu. So you tell me:

Shit Fuck Bollocks

2005-06-21T22:12:00.000-07:00

I cannot believe Billups missed 10 shots. That's what the box score shows. He and Rip seemed to hit everything. Open shots, tough shots, 3s and 2s. DET got off 17 3PA, many of them wide open. A very shocking development, outdone only by the fact they made 8 of their 17 attempts. The Pistons deserve a lot of credit for getting past the memory of game 5 and playing another near flawless game. 47% from the field, 47% from 3 and only 5 turnovers.

Duncan had 21 and 15 on only 14 FGA. He missed 5 more free throws including some in the fourth. SA ran a lot of pick and rolls with him; he didn't see the ball in the post as much as in game 5.

Manu was more assertive tonight but again didn't shoot well. He missed 6 threes, many of them good looks. He did pull down 10 rebounds, more than any single Piston.

Parker was Parker. 15 points on 15 FGA. 5 assists and 4 turnovers. You can pretty much pencil him in for that in game 7.

The Spurs were comically bad in the final 2.5 minutes. Manu had two bad turnovers and one even worse 3P attempt. At one point Parker airballed a wide open 3. Duncan got the rebound in traffic and missed a layup. Got the rebound and missed another layup. Stunning. Just stunning. I'm not sure if I am being sarcastic here. You tell me.

Matty and I had a long talk after the game. We're breaking up. No, seriously, he had a very good point which I shall summarize and extrapolate on below:

Close your eyes. Block out everything but your visions of game 7. Ignore me unzipping your fly. No, seriously, imagine Detroit with the ball. What do you see? Block out Al Michael's verbal fellation of Larry Brown. What's happening on the floor? You probably see Rip running off a bunch of screens. Or you see Rasheed and Chauncey playing pick and roll. Parker cannot fight over the pick so Duncan switches...

That's what Detroit will mainly do. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. Billups in killing the Spurs more than any single Piston. Over the last four games (where the Spurs are 0-3 and Horry is 1-0) he's scored 92 points on only 68 FGA. He's getting pretty much any shot he wants.

And the Spurs aren't doing one motherfucking thing about it. It's driving the Mattys crazy folks.

Bowen needs to be on him from the get go and he needs to be occasionally double teamed on the pick and rolls. FORCE DETROIT OUT OF THERE COMFORT ZONE ON OFFENSE. Make someone else beat you. Will Rip have a better game with Parker on him? Probably. But isn't Bowen primarily a one on one defender? And don't most of Rip's points come off screens? How much worse can Parker be in fighting through screens? Also, think about Hamilton's top side; what's the most points he could possibly put on Parker/Ginobili/Barry? Probably about 30 points, but it will take him 25 shots to do it (he has 74 points on 73 FGA his last four games). He doesn't hit many 3s and he doesn't draw a lot of fouls. HE IS NO WHERE NEAR AS DANGEROUS AS CHAUNCEY BILLUPS. Nobody on Detroit is. Billups is their best 3P shooter, their best penetrator, their best free throw shooter and probably their best finisher.

Bruce Bowen is the Spurs silver bullet. You cannot leave him in the chamber.

*****

Speaking of, Bruce slapped Rip's mask off his face well after the whistle was blown. That's pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. Don't give me this bullshit about "Rip shouldn't talk trash because the kids see that" and then go slap somebody in the face when he's had his nose broken 3 times. Chicken shit nancy boy crap. And I'm a nancy boy, so I should know.

*****

Well folks, I'm done. I have nothing more to say. There will be no game 7 seven preview. In fact, don't expect any writing from me until sometime this weekend, no matter the outcome.

Uno Mas

2005-06-21T12:20:00.000-07:00

The big NBA news of the day is that there will be no lockout. ESPN is reporting that a new CBA will be announced later today. "I bring you tidings of great joy that will be for all people..." The media will no doubt give credit to Billy Hunter and David Stern, but the lion's share of praise should go to the Spurs and Pistons. Their horrible display of non-competitve basketball on the biggest stage forced the powers that be to hammer out a deal. David Stern probably saw the following in a dream:

-NBA Finals, filled with bad games and lacking any real marketable superstar, end with the lowest ratings in history.
-A tall, semi-athletic white big man from Australia goes number 1 in the draft.
-Cleveland announces that Larry Brown will be the new team president. Lebron James immediately announces he refuses to play under him and will instead take the season off to work on his modeling career.
-NBA owners lock out players. ESPN then dedicates 5 hours a day to talk about how ridiculous the lockout is. Bill Walton calls it "the most shameful event in the history of mankind." Greg Anthony says "negotiating CBAs is all about matchups" and Steven A. screams incoherently.

That's not a good off season, folks. Kudos to everyone involved for getting something done before the season is even over. That's good business.

*****

I, like everyone else, noted Tim Duncan's poor performance in the fourth quarter and overtime. I wanted to revisit game 5 and point out that the man did have 19 rebounds, more than the Wallaces combined. He certainly brought great effort and took it upon himself to control the defensive glass (though he did get good help from Bowen and Manu).

I probably don't say this enough, but he's definitely a great, great player and the Spurs would have 0 titles without him. That's obvoius of course; but I am saying it to ensure I do not come across as a irrational Duncan hater. Having said that...

Watching this series has lead me to the conclusion that Rasheed Wallace has more talent than Tim Duncan. He has a better jumper. He's faster and quicker. He's a better leaper. He has scores of post moves. His fall away jumper is unguardable (Timmeh said so himself). And yet he's about 2/3 the player that Duncan is. In a way it's a little sad; the wasted gifts, lost time.

*****

Here are some things to look for tonight:

-I expect to see Bowen spending more time guarding Chauncey. He's causing the most problems for SA's defense and Bruce should do a better job of getting around screens. Also, this will encourage Detroit to force the ball to Rip who will have a size advantage over Parker. I hope Hamilton shoots the ball 80 times tonight; I had no idea I would have so much fun disliking the guy.

-Hopefully the Spurs will isolate Manu early. They cannot expect Horry to go for 21 points again; that production has to come from somewhere and The Sickness is the best candidate. Early success may numb the pain in his thigh.

Predictions are dumb:

SA 90
DET 80
The Sickness: 24/7/7
Timmeh: 26/20
Hamilton gets the MVP

I Once Saw Robert Horry Scissor Kick Angela Lansbury

2005-06-19T21:23:00.000-07:00

I cannot possibly do this game justice. I don't have the talent or the guts. How does one effectively summarize the most dramatic game of one's life?

There can be no doubt that the implications of this game are far reaching. For example:

-Robert Horry just assured himself a spot in the NBA Hall of Fame, right (assuming the NBA smartens up and starts their own separate from the joke that is the Basketball Hall of Fame)? We can just end the whole debate, right? What else would he have to do?

Is it possible to exaggerate his performace tonight? The man scored 21 of the Spurs last 35 points. He scored 7 of their last 8 (or 10 of their last 13) points in regulation (including a ridiculous tip shot from out of nowhere). He grabbed seven rebounds, 2 more than Rasheed Wallace. He had 5 of the 7 Spurs points in overtime, including a highlight reel dunk and the game-winning 3.

Allow me to simplify:

If there are words momentous enough to convey the size of Robert Horry's balls then I have yet to find them. If I am ever on trial and risking the death penalty I want Robert Horry as my lawyer. I'm sure that, if he put his mind to it, Robert Horry could find Bin Laden. Robert Horry has figured out fusion, he just ain't telling anybody. Robert Horry could convince that crazy Korean guy (~Kim Jong-Il) to give up his nuclear aspirations. Robert Horry is the brains behind Warren Buffet. Robert Horry invented the internet.

-Didn't Robert Horry just effectively save Tim Duncan's reputation? Tim went 1-7 from the free throw line in the fourth. Tim missed an extremely easy putback that would have won the game. Tim went missed two shots in overtime and had a huge and inexcusable turnover. If the Spurs lose this game the story is that Tim couldnt' get it done. Tim is a choker. Tim cannot hit the big shot when it matters. Garnett or Shaq would have stuffed home that putback attempt. On and on.

-How close was this game to being a huge disaster for the NBA? Rasheed Wallace got the rebound after Duncan's missed follow up and called time out. Detroit didn't have any time outs so that should have been a technical. Except the clock had run out; the refs got it right, but what if that happened seconds earlier? The refs have to call that right? Talk about a disaster.

Or what if Rip hits the shot at the end of overtime? In case you missed it, Rip got the ball around the top of the key and proceeded to first lower his shoulder into Parker's chest and then give him an elbow to the face. Two obvious offensive fouls. The refs swallowed their whistles. What if that went in? The public already thinks NBA refs are a joke. Hell, what would the Sports Guy have written?

I am not trying to take away from the game itself, it's just that there were so many unique story lines that added to the whole experience.

Random thoughts, because that's all I'm capable of:

-What the hell was Ginobili thinking in the overtime with that bullet pass? He came this close to knocking Robert Horry unconcious; and he then had the nerve to throw his hands up; definitely his best acting job of the playoffs. Speaking of The Sickness; his shot was off (he's hurt people; that's my conclusion) but he did crash the boards (6) and had 9 assists including a great bounce pass to Horry for the game winner. Which is ironic because it was a horrible bounce pass by Bowen that forced Horry to go to the whole for the monster dunk instead of shooting a 3.

-Lindsaey Hunter knocked the ball of Parker's leg three times. Parker had an OK game. He had a big layup in overtime and played decent defense while having to face a lot of pressure bringing the ball up the court. 6 TOs is still too many, though.

-I like the fact that Pop adjusted and left Udrih on the bench; but at one point this resulted in Barry guarding Chauncey even though Parker was on the court (I guess because Tony was tired). I'd rather see Barry guard Ben Wallace. Seriously.

-How many times did the Spurs switch the pick and roll only to see Billups blow right by Duncan? Someone please explain the Spurs thinking behind this.

-Who's more overrated: Rip or Parker?

-Chauncey was 11-26 for 34 points. It felt like he 15-25 for 40 points. He led the way for DET down the stretch when they were nearly unstoppable (it felt like they scored on 7 consecutive possessions).

-God, Nazr Mohammed has no clue at times. Brutal. Rasho cannot possibly be worse than him.

-This was the first game in the playoffs that Manu had less points than FGA (15 / 16). Which leads to:

I feel great about this game. So should all Spurs fans. But this series is NOT over. SA cannot count on another 21 point performance from Big Shot Rob. Manu is going to have to play better in game 6. Because if the Spurs lose game 6 then, well, uhhh, let's just say I don't want to see how tight Tim Duncan is in the fourth quarter of a game 7.

Game 5 Preview

2005-06-19T12:33:00.000-07:00

Here's some changes I think the Spurs should make:

On offense:

-Stop running pick and rolls. Period. In games 1 and 2 Detroit was playing the P&R tighter, occasionally going over the screen. Now, especially in game 4, they are simply switching and collapsing into the paint. They "Dare Tony Parker to Shoot" defense is now in full effect. The P&R is also bogging down and clogging up the offense. It invites double teams and the subsequent traps. Isolate Manu at the top of the key and make Tayshaun/Hunter prove he can stay in front of him. Spread the floor. Duncan on the block, Horry on the wing and Bowen and Parker in the corners. It's a lot easier to pass around the double team if you can see it coming.

-Go small. Duncan is going to play 40 minutes. That leaves 56 minutes to be distributed to various players at the center and PF slot. Give Nazr 2, Rasho 10, Horry 32 and Big Dog 12. The Spurs need more perimeter shooters on the floor to make DET pay for collapsing on Duncan. Nazr is hampering the Spurs offense because he's always in the paint (and thus making it easy for Det to clog the lane). Rasho isn't a good outside shooter but he's at least comfortable at the top of the key; swinging the ball, etc.

Going small requires Big Dog to play some PF minutes. At this point, I don't give a shit. He cannot do any worse on McDyess than Duncan (who has repeatedly sagged off and watched Antonio drain multiple 15-18 footers). Worried about defensive rebounding? Why? DET has averaged 14.5 OFF REB in the games they lost and 15.0 in the games they won. Nazr has grabbed 11 DEF REB in 86 minutes. How much worse could Glenn be?

-Get Manu involved EARLY. As in give him the ball the first 3 times down the court. He's always the first to leave the game; I want him going to the bench with some shots under his belt; with the notion that he is going to be an offensive force (because he's going to HAVE to be for the Spurs to win).

-Move Duncan off the block some. This opens up the offense and allows Duncan to see the double coming.

On defense:

-Just why in the hell are the Spurs switching the pick and roll? I could understand doing that against PHX. It prevented Steve Nash penetration (by switching and then playing soft) and the subsequent kick out for the dreaded 3. Detroit has ONE player who shoots better than 35% from 3. That's Billups, who's the guy running the P&R in the first place. The Spurs should either:

A. Trap the pick and roll (and maybe force more than 4 TOs in a game; the TO problem isn't the number of Spurs TOs, it's the disparity between SA and DET TOs) or

B. Play the pick and roll like they did FOR THE WHOLE FUCKING SEASON. SA hardly ever switched the pick and roll during the regular season. They would send the guard over the top and have the big defend the ballhandler until the Spur guard recovered. The big would then recover to his man. The Spurs had the best damned defense in the league playing the P&R this way. Why change against DET; a team largely without 3P shooters?

-Get BACK. In games 1 and 2 the Spurs averaged 15 TOs. In games 3 and 4 the Spurs averaged 17.5. In games 1 and 2 the Pistons averaged 9 fast break points. In games 3 and 4 the Pistons averaged 21. Spot the real difference people.

My prediction for tonight's game? I have no clue. And neither do you.

*****

On Friday I did a phone interview with Mr. Paul Ihander of WOAI Newsradio. I grew up listening to Spurs games on WOAI, so this means more to me than the internet radio shows I've done. We talked about myself and the blog more than my thoughts on the Spurs which was sort of awkward. But I only wanted to smack myself in the forehead once during the interview, so it shouldn't have turned out too bad. It's supposed to air sometime Monday morning.

"A Seemingly Contradictory Statement That May Nonetheless Be True"

2005-06-16T21:00:00.000-07:00

Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton combine to shoot 9-30 from the field and Detroit wins by 31 points.

"I don't know, people. I wish I did."

That still holds true. At this point I have no explanation. I am engineer; effectively an applied scientist. But there is no equation, no mathematical model, no boundary conditions that can be applied to what has transpired so far in the NBA Finals. I cannot pretend that I can make some sense of the totality of the past four games.

Therefore I will simply punt and share other people's opinions. First off will be The Wife's sister, who shall from now on be known as The Sistizzle.

"It's either homecourt advantage or some (guy) is paying some people off to get this to seven games."

Da Blade had some thoughts as well (Note: this is edited slightly, see the comments for the post below this one for the complete rant):

"It is halfway through the third and I have stopped watching the game. I hope I miss the greatest comeback since the "Memorial Day Miracle", but I seriously doubt it.

The Spurs are undoubtedly the most mentally fragile championship basketball team in the history of the NBA. Let me repeat for emphasis....THE SPURS ARE UNDOUBTEDLY THE MOST MENTALLY FRAGILE CHAMPIONSHIP BASKETBALL TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA.

I cannot find any other rational explanation for this recent mini-implosion (nor others in the past). They are intimidated. They cannot dribble, catch, shoot, or execute fundamental NBA offensive sets. It is also pretty apparent that they don't know how to make adjustments through the course of play. Defense? What defense? Detroit is going to hang 100 on their sorry asses.

They play soft...this is what they do...they always have...and most likely always will. They... ... never defend their own (opting to play the "classy" card rather than stand up and defend their teammates by pushing back)...I could go on, but I'm pissed and other examples are alluding me curently.

It is the ultimate irony...they have one of the toughest coaches in the league yet play like a bunch of pansies.

I guess I am also generally pissy because I have to listen to the local media tout the Spurs as the best team to ever play the game. Nevermind that they cannot produce any tangible evidence to support their claim and that when a dissenting opinion is presented their rebuttal is about as strong as the classic, "So, So, suck your toe" or...even better..."My dad can beat up your dad." I recognize that they are homers, but that doesn't justify being an idiot...nor does it justify removing quality nationally syndicated shows to listen to this crap.

Up 2-0, the only thing you can listen to from the media is the Spurs' imminent sweep of the lowly Pistons. Now...the Spurs are about to lose by more combined points in games 3 & 4 than they beat the Pistons by in games 1 & 2. Checkmate...

Wake up, Spurs fans...we may win this damn series, but we are miles away from being a dominant championship team.And they can't cover, either....the ultimate measure of championship basketball.

- Seriously pissed Spurs fan

... aka da Blade."

"A Violent Collapse Inward"

2005-06-16T19:28:00.000-07:00

It's halftime of game 4 and the Spurs are down 15 points. They've committed 10 turnovers and are routinely being beaten down the court for easy baskets. I would be lying if I said I had answers, but I do have some ideas.

SA's offense is extremely predictable at this point. Pick and roll at the top with Parker/Manu and Duncan/Horry or throw it into Duncan in the post. It's not working. Ditch it. Isolate TP or Manu on the wing or top of the key. Make them guard you one on one. Penetrate and shoot or dish. Move off the ball.

Instead of feeding Duncan in the post move him out onto the wing. He's not going to be extremely effective going against Rasheed or Ben on the block. He doesn't have the leaping ability to create any separation. Moving him out allows the offense to flow more freely; it makes it harder for Detroit to double team; it allows more cutters. It also makes Rasheed and Wallace come out from the basket. Duncan can hit that shot and if they play up on him he should be able to go around them. He needs to make quick, decisive moves.

Trap the pick and roll on defense; make Billups give the ball up. Duncan needs to get up on McDyess; how many times must he hit the 18' before Tim starts playing defense? Play Udrih in Barry's place. He can hit all the shots Barry can and is no worse a defender. Rest Parker earlier so he can be brought back in at the end of quarters when Detroits goes to Hunter.

Nobody of any importance is in foul trouble; play aggressively on defense.

And find Mr. Miyagi so he can do some of that magic on Manu's thigh.

"Even The Cooler Played Better Than Him"

2005-06-16T12:19:00.000-07:00

That's a fitting summary of game 3 provided by Matty da Blade. "The Cooler" is the official San Antonio Spurs Blog nickname for Brent Barry; "him" was specifically directed at Manu Ginobili, though it could have applied to everyone except To Nee Pah Kah.

The Sickness was awful. He started the game off with a horrible pass that led to a breakaway dunk by Ben Wallace. During the second Spurs' possession he barrelled into Tayshaun Prince, earning an offensive foul and thigh bruise in the process. The injury forced him to the bench and probably hampered his efforts for the rest of the night (though he'll supposedly be OK for game 4). He shot the ball only 6 times all night and was credited with 6 turnovers (though some of those were due to Nazr's inability to catch the ball).

My last post brought up Bill Simmons question regarding where Manu stands amongst other two guards. Personally, I rank him below at least Kobe and Wade (and maybe others, too). First off, there's a small talent gap. The larger (and more effectual) difference lies in whatever causes Ginobili to play 29 minutes and only shoot the ball 6 times. Maybe it can be attributed to lack of conditioning, unselfishness, playing within the system or not forcing the issue. And I do not doubt his thigh had something to do with it (though, as I've pointed out 71 times before, Manu is always passing up shots, with or without thigh bruises). Detroit also trapped the pick and roll a few times (though not frequently enough to justify 6 shots). The reason behind his timidity is immaterial; the end result is what matters, and the end result is that he's hurting the team.

Manu is the Spurs' best offensive player, and it's not really even that close at this point. He needs to shoot a minimum of 15 times every game. And on nights when Duncan is playing like absolute ass that number needs to be around 25. You could cut off Kobe's leg in the first quarter and he would still find a way to get up 15 shots. At this point, that's what is separating Manu from the upper crust of shooting guards.

Manu sucked, Duncan sucked, the Spurs turned the ball over 18 times and allowed 17 offensive rebounds. It's no surprise they lost. Quick notes:

-Parker played a hell of a game: 21 points on 16 FGA and the only one-on-one threat SA had all night.

-Bowen continued to shoot well from 3: 4-6.

-Mohammed was dreadful and had trouble catching the ball all night. He's getting better at defending the pick and roll and I am excited about his potential. However...

-Rasho played in the first quarter due to Nazr's foul trouble. The Spurs went from down 4 to up 4 while he was on the court. For the playoffs the Spurs are +29 while Rasho's been on the court (100 minutes). The Spurs are +13 when Mohammed is on the court (442 minutes). But I'm sure that's just a coincidence because everybody knows you measure centers by how often they attempt to dunk the ball.

-Duncan had 15 FGA. 3 of them were inside the lane. Conclusion: he sorta played like a weenie.

-The Spurs were outscored 20-4 on the fastbreak. Ouch.

-Richard Hamilton played his first decent game of the series, scoring 24 points but taking 23 FGA to do it. I want him to shoot more.

In 2003-04 I had a Spurs-related mantra: "No stupid fouls, no three-pointers, no bad shots." Against the Pistons I've adjusted it to "Get the rebound, no turnovers, shoot the damn ball Manu." If the Spurs improve in those three areas they'll win tonight and be 48 minutes away from their 3rd title in 7 years.

Has It Come to This?

2005-06-13T17:16:00.000-07:00

Should I just change the title to "Manu Ginobili Blog?"

Bill Simmons, aka "The Sports Guy," wrote a good article about the media's relationship with the Spurs. Similar in theme to my post but more impactful because it's written by a guy who didn't grow up rooting for San Antonio. Here's an excerpt:

Shouldn't everyone be going crazy about this Spurs team? Shouldn't we be wondering about stuff like…
1. Where they rank among the all-time greats?
2. How you could possibly beat these guys?
3. Would Miami have done any better?
4. Do they need a sweep to cement their legacy as a top-10 team?
5. If Manu Ginobili finishes the series the way he started, does he have to be considered the most dominant all-around two-guard in the league (ahead of Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and everyone else)?
6. Where does Tim Duncan rank among the greatest players ever?

Read #5 again. Is that where we're at? Contemplating whether a skinny Argentinian making less than $7 million a year is better than Kobe? The best at his position? The best 2-guard in the league?

I'm not saying the answer to that question is "yes." But the fact that the question is even being asked is the biggest story of the NBA this year. The media probably won't treat it as such, but I guarantee you David "Globalization" Stern is paying attention.

*****

About game 2; forgot to mention Robert Horry. He was wicked awesome.

What Do You Want Me To Say?

2005-06-13T11:58:00.000-07:00

After the game, Greg Anthony said (something like) the following about Detroit: "They are playing as individuals, not as a team. The Spurs are playing as a team." Walton added the following nugget: "They aren't playing like champions. They aren't playing with heart."

Wow. What insight. I am glad ABC gives those "analyst" jobs to former NBA players because there's no way a plebeian could wind up at the same conclusions. The same meaningless, bullshit-laced conclusions.

Here's a novel idea: maybe the Spurs are just better? Maybe the Spurs' 7.8 point differential during the regular season(with Duncan missing 16 games) is more impressive than Detroit's 3.8 point differential. Maybe when you factor in their conference strengths the gap should logically widen. Maybe the Spurs had less trouble with better teams during the playoffs. Maybe the Spurs are better at what the Pistons do best. Maybe the Spurs have more offensive flexibility. Maybe the Spurs are deeper. Maybe the Spurs have more guys that can hit the three. Maybe the Spurs have more guys that can create their own shots or, when the defense collapses (as it did last night), create shots for others. Maybe the Spurs have two different guards who Detroit cannot stop one-on-one. Maybe the Spurs have the best player in the series. Maybe the Spurs also have Tim Duncan.

Allow me to (loosely) quote the great NBA analysy Denis Leary:

They can have a big teamwork/heart/play like champions cakewalk right through the middle of Tianamen Square and it won't make a lick of difference because we've got the players, OK?

Here's the thing: Detroit played good team difference last night. Why the hell do you think the Spurs shot 24 threes? Virtually everytime a Spur beat someone of the dribble they were forced to kick the ball out because Detroit rotated to block off the lane. Their problem on defense isn't team, it's individual. They need to find individuals who can stay in front of Parker and The Sickness. Individuals that can play denial defense (is anybody noticing Parker hounding Billups to the point he's having trouble even getting the ball) and fight over picks. The Spurs have those guys. Ginobili and Bowen are both top 10 perimeter defenders. Tony Parker got 2 votes for first team All NBA defense.

Is the series over? Is Detroit through? Well, I don't the balls to say "yes." But it sure looks like it is. Since the 1st quarter of game 1 Detroit has been outscored by 39 points. Ouch. It's going to take a colossal reversal of quality of play for Detroit to have a chance. They could very well win a couple of games, but 4 out of 5? How is that feasible given what we've seen?

***

You've probably heard: the Spurs throttled Detroit last night. The Pistons never had a lead and never got closer than 8 in the second half. DET did a better job of rotating and cutting off the lane, but Manu and Parker adjusted well and found wide open shooters behind the 3P line. The one glaring negative for SA was the 18 offensive rebounds they allowed. That's about 10 too many.

Bowen did a great job on Hamilton once again and complimented his defensive performance with good 3P shooting. His point total (15) matched Detroit's highest scorer (McDyess).

Parker played terrific denial defense on Billups and was efficient on the offensive end, scoring 12 points on 9 FGA.

Duncan hit his free throws (8-9), did an adequate job rebounding (11) and played terrific defense all night (4 blocks).

Mohammed played decently, but 2 defensive rebounds in 25 minutes ain't gonna cut it.

The Sickness had 27 points on 8 FGA. That's 3.375 PPFGA. Even if you negate the free throws he still had 2.00 PPFGA. 7 assists, 3 REB, 3 STL, 3 TO. At this point it would be very hard to exaggerate the quality of his playoff performance. He's currently at 1.78 PPFGA for the playoffs, shooting 53% from the field and 49% from 3. If he maintains his PPFGA it will be the highest in the history of the NBA playoffs for a guy averaging more than 20 points a game.

Game Two Preview

2005-06-11T16:37:00.000-07:00

There's no doubt that Rasheed Wallace will get more than 6 FGA in game 2. In game 1 Detroit spent too much time trying to force the ball into Rip's hands. Run him off of one screen; if he's not open go straight into a pick and roll with Wallace and Billups. I also expect to see a lot more postups from Chauncey and especially The TayTay. The Pistons will definitely have a better offensive game than Thursday.

I am not sure what Detroit will do about Manu. Here's how he was defended in the fourth quarter, where he went 6-6 for 15 points:

-Prince guarding him; pick and roll with Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace; Wallace showed soft and Manu threaded a bounce pass to Tim who missed a 6 footer in the lane

-Prince guarding him; pick and roll with Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace; Wallace switches and gets called for the block that leads to the technical foul

-Prince guarding him; pick and roll with Duncan and McDyess; McDyess switches; Manu goes by him with right hand for layup (crashes into BW; no call)

-Pretty much exactly same as previous

-Mini fastbreak (though Detroit had 4 guys back); Manu blows by Rip with right hand and throws in the righty layup; and 1

-Rip guarding him; pick and roll with Duncan and Rasheed; Manu blows by him for dunk

-Rip guarding him; pick and roll with Horry and McDyess; McDyess switches and plays off Manu; The Sickness drains a 3

-I'm missing the details of the last score, but it's Manu's lefty layup high off the glass

The theme here is obvious: pick and roll with Duncan or Horry. The Pistons tried a soft show or a switch. Neither worked. They could try trapping the pick and roll but Manu is an expert at splitting the double team. He's also capable of passing out of the double team, which means Detroit would be leaving either Duncan or Horry wide open. They could send Manu's man under the pick, but that leads to Ginobili hoisting the 3. If I were the Pistons I would overplay the pick with Manu's man (this is what the Spurs often do with the pick and roll) and force him baseline. Of course you cannot employ that strategy at the top of the key where the majority of the offense starts for the Spurs.

I think Detroit will trap the pick and roll late in the game and trust that their defensive rotations will be adequate.

Detroit will probably play further off Parker as the series proceeds. Though he only had 15 points on 17 FGA, he got into the lane at will.

I was surprised at how many times Duncan got great position on the Detroit defenders. There were at least 3 occasions where he pinned them inside the charge semi-circle. Look for the Pistons to play Duncan more physically off the ball.

In summary, the main things I'll be looking at are Detroit's shot distribution and what adjustments they make against Manu and Parker. Also, will the Spurs be able to push the tempo more? They only had 8 fast break points in game 1.

Note: SA has never allowed more than 90 points in an NBA Finals game. Sorry ABC.

Wikka Wikka Wikka San Antonio

2005-06-10T12:02:00.000-07:00

As bad as the first half was, the opening ceremonies were worse. God awful. I couldn't even watch them. Alanis Morissette is the last person I would pick to sing the national anthem. Not because she's from Canada, but rather because her voice is all wikka wikka wikka awkward. Give me somebody smooth or powerful, give me a gospel choir. Who they going to bring out for game 2? Snoop? "...land of the frizzle and home of the bravizzle."

And then came Will Smith, who I guess has a new album out. He comes out in some pseudo-car and yells "SWWIIIIIIIIIIITTTTCH." I guess that's the name of his single. I couldn't care less. When I turned back to ABC after about 3 minutes their was some choreographed dribbling going on. This was enough for me not to SWWIIIIIIIIITTTTCH the channel for about 20 seconds. At which time Will Smith started beat-boxing and at one point said "Wikka wikka wikka San Anntoneeeeeo." At this point I was willing to miss part of the first quarter to save myself.

The entire first half was brutal to watch. ABC's worst nightmare. The Spurs started off stagnant on offense and turned the ball over 4 times early on, assisting Detroit's early 17-4 surge. At this point I called Da Blade and said simply "Uh oh." Surprisingly enough, Matty wasn't worried, commenting that "This is how I thought the Spurs would come out. Little rusty and disjointed while Detroit puts on their usual game 1 surge." I'm usually the one talking him down the Ledge of Hypernegativity.

SA was able to fight their way back to within 3 by the end of the first quarter. A seemingly big play occurred when Horry and Parker trapped Hunter just over the half court line after a made free throw. Horry stole the ball and fed Glenn Robinson for a dunk. Speaking of Big Dog, you couldn't help but feel happy for the guy. I would think it feels good to be back on the court, where he was a holy terror for the 6 minutes he was out there. 2 PTS, 3 REB and 3 BLK. Matty made a good point that his production made it seem like he logged more minutes than he did. My dad said "He did more in his 6 minutes than the entire Detroit bench did for the whole game."

Pop used his bench liberally, giving 10 players meaningful (considering when they played, not for how long) minutes. Devin Brown made an appearance and looked understandably rusty. He was active on defense but failed to pick up Billups early enough which resulted in a Billups 3 and a conspicuous on-court tongue lashing from Horry.

You want to know how bad Brent Barry was tonight? Matty called me during live action (98% of the time we talk only during commercials) to ask if there was anyway The Cooler could be cut during the game. I think Barry and Fortson had an illicit encounter during their series and Brent contracted Danny's foul ways. Get it? Foul ways. Cause they both foul a lot? Ahhhh. It's the little things in life.

I don't understand what Detroit was trying to do on offense last night. Rasheed hits his first 3 shots and then only takes 3 more the whole game. Rip takes 21 shots, many of them while trying to take Bowen to the basket. That was highest of high comedy. If Rip iso vs. Bowen is Detroit's first, second or even third option then they have serious problems.

Detroit seemed to play middling defense against Parker. They went over some picks and under others, but they still played him way too tight. Here's a good way to figure out if you're too close to The Wee Frenchman: if the SA crowd isn't at least murmuring (you know how they do when they want someone to shoot) when he's got the ball on the outside they you are too damn close.

Duncan was great. 24, 17 and 2. Outscored and outrebounded the Wallaces combined. Rasheed did an admirable job on him, and Duncan put up the type of line I expected: 24 points on 22 FGA.

Then there was The Sickness. There's probably not much more I can say about the guy. 22 points on 9-10 shooting in the second half (accounting for 45% of the Spurs points), taking over the 4th with 15 on 6-6. That's beyond ridiculous. He also had 9 rebounds for the game, more than any Piston. For whatever reason Brown had The TayTay on the bench for most of the 4th. He's their only player with any shot of playing Manu one-on-one.

Scoop Jackson wrote a good piece on Manu.

The Spurs definitely had the benefit of some questionable/bad calls in the second half. BWallace got called for a charge when Nazr was clearly inside the semi-circle. He then got called with a block on Manu which probably should have been a charge (this led to a tech on Ben). He also absorbed a lot of contact on a Ginobili drive; no foul was called but the replay showed Ben's foot on the semi-circle. Technically should have been a block, but the refs probably made the right decision in letting it go (Ben would likely have ripped somebody a new something).

But the officiating certainly didn't decide the outcome of the game. And don't give me the whole "momentum" bullshit. Yeah, the Spurs went on a 19-less than 10 run after the tech. I guess that means the Spurs had the momentum. Detroit then went on a 10-0 run. Which I guess means the Spurs misplaced the momentum. Maybe they left it in their other pants pockets.

I'll do my best to put up a game 2 preview Sunday afternoon.

In the Meantime...

2005-06-10T10:37:00.000-07:00

Game 1 comments coming at 4:00 ET.

Yesterday morning I was on Sports Bloggers Live Extra with Jamie Mottram and the gang and Corey from the Pistons blog. Corey and I are on simultaneously starting around the 23 minute mark. The show automatically starts when you load the main page and you can fast forward by, uh, moving the slidy thingy.

NBA Finals Preview

2005-06-09T13:30:00.000-07:00

I don't know, people. I wish I did.

Against Denver I knew. Their winning streak? A mirage with a favorable schedule and timely injuries as its foundation. Their main offensive weapons? The fast break and Carmelo, both which played right into the teeth of the Spurs defense. Their defense? No answers for Parker or The Sickness.

Against Seattle I had a good idea. Ray Allen? A great offensive player going against his nemesis who had (allegedly) undercut his way into Ray's head. A defensive liability who would likely be neutralized by Manu (Ray tallied 6 more total points than Ginobili in the series; it only took him 49 more FGA to do it). Their other main offensive weapons, Rashard and Radmanovic? Both gimpy and both heavily reliant on the 3 which the Spurs defend better than anyone. Their defense? No one who could guard The Cornerstone without getting into foul trouble. No one who could stay in front of Parker or Ginobili. (In the spirit of fairness and squashing dissent: the Sonics did give the Spurs the most trouble so far and played better than I expected.)

I knew enough about Phoenix not to be worried. Too reliant on the three and the fast break. Comically thin. Matched up horribly against the Spurs; having no one who had a prayer in a one on one matchup against any of The Big Three. Allowed easy buckets way too often. Horrible coaching.

I didn't give any of those teams a real chance at beating the Spurs in a seven game series. But Detroit? Chauncey, Rasheed, Rip, Ben and Tay Tay? I just don't know.

My apprehension has little to do with Detroit's success last year. Rosters change. Players themselves change. Opponents change. People who say "Detroit should be favored because they're the defending champs" are either too stupid or too afraid to say anything of value; to actually have an opinion.

During the regular season the Spurs showcased three primary offensive weapons.

1. Tim on the block.

Against Detroit he'll face the tandem of Rasheed, Ben and McDyess. But the vast majority of the time he'll be going against Rasheed, who I consider to be the best pure one-on-one defender against Duncan. He's long and positions himself well. He guards you the whole possession, not just when the ball is on your side of the court. He doesn't bite on upfakes and makes a point of actually boxing you out after the shot.

But I'm hoping Rasheed is too good. You don't contain Duncan with great post defense. You contain him by doubling him the minute he dribbles the ball and beating the ever living shit out of him at every opportunity. That's what the Lakers did. That was the modus operandi of The Ringless Choker. I don't think Larry Brown and Rasheed will stoop to that level; I think they're too prideful, too enwrapped in "the right way," too good.

Don't get me wrong, TD will not effortlessly drop 30 like he did against Phoenix. But I would bet dimes to dollars that he'll enjoy this matchup more than playing against The Scrub Gang of Seattle.

2. Tony Parker iso / pick and roll.

Here's where my apprehension begins to mount. Everybody says Larry Brown is a great coach. Well, personally, I will get a very good idea of his greatness in the first 12 minutes of game 1.

For some reason, probably a combination of pride, stubbornness and stupidity, both Seattle and Phoenix started their series playing Parker straight up. Going over the top of pick and rolls and engaging Parker too aggressively instead of playing 6 feet off him and inviting him to shoot. It inexplicably took both of these teams 2 whole games to figure out how to mitigate The Wee Frenchman. Numerical evidence: TP averaged 26 points in the first two games, 14.9 thereafter (never again going over 18 points).

If Larry Brown is deserving of his reputation you will see Billups camped out at the free throw line when TP brings the ball up the court in the first stanza of game 1. Chauncey is a good defender (having the physical presence that bothers TP) but has zero chance of staying in front Parker. Granted, he has the shot blockers to back him up, but I cannot think of one thing Detroit gains from guarding Tony in a traditional manner.

3. Give the ball to The Sickness.

I have watched all but one Spurs game since the All Star Break. I have noted two factors that limit Manu's production: his frustrating proclivity for passing up wide open jumpers and his lack of durability. In other words, I have yet to see another team use a certain player or employ a discernable strategy that slows down Manu. This has been readily apparent throughout the playoffs (you can find the numerical evidence in about seventeen different places in my blog).

But Detroit has The TayTay. I have what I hope proves to be an irrational fear of The TayTay, mainly because if I had to choose one guy to guard Manu it would be, uh huh, The TayTay. Because, like The Sickness, there's something not quite right about him.

Have you ever watched an NBA game while on the phone? You're sort of watching the game but 90% of your attention is devoted to the conversation. It takes either something amazing or something odd to pull you back into the game. Like The TayTay coming from out of nowhere and into a sea of Mourning and Chack for a put back dunk that was at the same time thunderous and adroit.

The TayTay doesn't fit. The TayTay doesn't have an NBA body. The TayTay doesn't have a pretty shot. The TayTay is a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. Smothered in an aromatic white wine sauce.

I once had a veal shank stuffed with prosciutto and mozzarella on top of a bed of carmelized onions wrapped in bacon. I think if we wrapped The TayTay in bacon he would become a limitless source of clean burning energy. He would also gain the ability to play every Black Sabbath guitar solo on accordion.

The TayTay is 6'-9" with a wingspan of a seven footer. He was born in Compton and his underarm hair is finely spun silk. He was 49th in the NBA in PPFGA this season and sleeps on sheets with a thread count no less than 500.

The Sickness does not have a traditional offensive game. He zag zigs and over-crosses. He does reverse layups on the non-reverse side of the basket. He prefers 8-foot finger rolls over wide open 3s. He has long hair and a bald spot. He'll drop 30+ including various one-offs and posterizations and then carry a man purse to the press conference. He's left handed and has a big nose.

How do you counteract the Counter Act? You throw a non-traditional defensive player at him. The TayTay can play 5 feet off you and still contest your shot. The TayTay weighs 10 pounds more than Beno Udrih but is difficult to post up. The TayTay isn't fast but will chase you down. The TayTay is left handed and has a weird looking face.

I've long said I don't know how I would go about guarding The Sickness. I also don't know how I would go about attacking The TayTay. The similarities are troubling. Disconcerting even. Both underpaid, both too passive, both on the cusp.

You remember that part in Back to the Future where Marty asks Doc what would happen if he ran into himself in the future? Doc tells him "the encounter could create a time paradox, the results of which could cause a chain reaction that would unravel the very fabric of the space-time continuum and destroy the entire universe. Granted, that's the worst case scenario. The destruction might, in fact, be very localised, limited to merely our own galaxy."

That's some scary shit, people. Would anyone be that surprised if two years from now The TayTay has the type of postseason Manu is having now? If you had to pick an the heir-apparent to The Sickness would it not be The TayTay? Is it not possible that I will soon be referring to The TayTay as "The Affliction" or "The Malady."

You have to understand the reason for my fears: this series, this season rides on the back of Manu Ginobili. Parker is a consistent jumper away from being Robin to Duncan's Batman. Ginobili's been the guy dominating occasional games in the playoffs (game 3 against Denver (32) and game 5 against Seattle (39) stand out). Ginobili's the lynchpin, the X-factor, the je ne sais quois, the player that keeps Larry Brown up at nights. So if The TayTay manages to hold The Sickness to under 15 points a game this series will be over before it starts. "Granted that's the worst case scenario," but if Manu goes for around 18-20 PPG the Spurs still lose in 7.

Allow me to simplify: the Spurs will need 25 a night from The Sickness to win the 2004-2005 NBA Championship.

Can The TayTay slow him down? Will he? I don't know. And that's what scares me.

(An aside: some people have pointed out that Tayshaun couldn't guard Wade and therefore will not be able to slow Ginobili. Um. OK people. I have a strong, strong man love for Manu, but he's a notch below Wade. Dwyane has the better first step, the better pull up jumper, more strength and more explosive ability. Simmer down.)

As you can see, the Spurs 3 main offensive weapons play right into Detroit's defensive strengths. Which means I am forced to hope that Pop has the flexibility to go to Plan D. But before I get into that I want to squeeze in some talk about Detroit's offense.

The Pistons' offensive efficiency ranked ~15th (knickerblogger.net is down at the moment) during the regular season.

They like to run Rip off a bazillion screens and get him that 18-20' jumper that's his specialty. Bruce Bowen lives for this: shutting down the opposing team's best wing player. I think he, combined with the Spurs big men hedging a little to prevent Rip's elbow curl, will do a more than adequate job on Hamilton.

Billups and 'Sheed will likely be involved in numerous pick and rolls. This is a little frightening considering Nazr's tenuous hold on how to defend the pick and roll. Don't be surprised to see The Solid Slovenian get 15-20 minutes a game this series. Prevent Chauncey's penetration and open looks and let Rasheed shoot the outside jumpers he loves so much.

Billups and Tayshaun will also attempt to post up Parker and Ginobili. I'm more worried about the latter because Prince has a more refined post game. I never really understood automatically posting up larger guards against smaller ones. Size advantage doesn't mean all that much if you don't know what to do with it. Billups is a dangerous offensive player but not because of his drop step or baby hook.

Detroit is a good offensive team. But I think their skill lies as much in their execution then in their skill level. They don't take bad shots, especially down the stretch. They don't turn the ball over. They don't get rattled (Billups is as cool as they come). On the other hand, they aren't going to offensively blow you out of the water, either. Which leads us back to the Spurs offense and Plan D.

At some point during the first two games the offense will bog down. Parker will be off from the outside. Duncan will be in the midst of a workman like 25 on 20 FGA. Manu will be trying too hard to draw the foul. Barry will be practicing his double-clutch set shot. Horry will actually miss some 3 pointers. At this point P.J. Carlesimo will whisper something in Pop's ear. It will sound just like the voice in Field of Dreams...

Let them go.

You've done your job Pop. You've made savvy draft selections. You've fostered the growth of Tony Parker and reigned in Manu Ginobili to a manageable level. You've convinced a group of 12 hypertalented, well paid and egotistical NBA players to commit to defense at a level seldom seen outside of the NCAAs. You've been controlling but fair. And the whole time you have deflected all praise and accolades. It's taken how many years to get to this point?

But now it's finally time. Time to release the reins and give the fastest point guard in the league the green light. Time to tell Manu to just go without fear of consequences. Release the hounds Pop.

I want to see Parker roaring down the court, faster than the Pistons can retreat. I want to see Manu going right at people and turning them around like a top with a little herk and a little jerk. I want to see Barry flying in from the wing for the reverse layup. I want to see Duncan grab a long rebound on an errant 3P attempt from Wallace and proceed to lead the break, finishing with a no look pass to whoever for an easy layup.

I want to see the boring San Antonio Spurs run the defending champs right out of the damned gym.

Because that's where we have them clearly beat. You don't win 59 games (while Duncan misses 16) without offensive flexibility. You don't dominate a 62 win Phoenix team while playing their game without having a little something extra.

Force Detroit to play a game they don't want to play. Trust your players to make the right decisions and get back on defense. Trust in all those times Parker blew by half of the opposing team for a layup. Trust your memories of Manu getting a rebound at the free throw line, dribbling right past a sprinting Al Harrington and dunking right in Tyronn Lue's mug.

Let. Them. Go.

*****

Maybe I am being overly cynical, but I don't see Pop adjusting his offense until there's a mountain of evidence suggesting he do so. I see Detroit eeking out a victory in one of the first two games in San Antonio while Parker struggles with his jumper. The Spurs make a concerted effort to push the ball for the remainder of the series and take games 3 and 5. They'll close it out at home in game 6 behind a huge game from The Sickness. The MVP will be Timmeh! and I will vehemently disagree. This leads to me writing 15 000 words about the greatness of Ginobili and will contain statistical evidence that he, not Isaac Newton, is responsible for the Universal Law of Gravitation.

Spurs in 6. Game on.

(Note: You can read another series preview (from a slightly different viewpoint) here. )

Stay on Target

2005-06-09T09:57:00.000-07:00

My NBA Finals preview is coming @ 4:15 ET. I got a little carried away as I tend to do. If you don't like it then you can go suck an egg. That's right. I just said that. Oaktown represent! 41st and Telegraph 'til I die!

The gentleman and scholar Lance Williams once again allowed me onto his show Swish a couple of nights ago. We talked about what makes good Ivory Billed Woodpecker habitat and the NBA Finals. I need to point out that I made a huge error during my segment. I said that Parker torched the Pistons the last time the two teams met (when Duncan rolled his ankle in the opening minutes) for well over 20 points. I checked afterwards and he only had 12 or 13. I regret the error and promise to floss more.

Stay focused people. We gots a big game tonight.

There's a Lesson Here

2005-06-07T12:20:00.000-07:00

Some random thoughts about last night's game:

-At one point down the stretch Dwyane Wade drove to the hoop and got stripped of the ball and didn't get the foul call. They switched to a closeup of his look of disbelief and for a brief moment he looked just like Kobe Bryant.

-My favorite Ridiculously Bad Call of the Night happened late in the game. Chauncey had Damon Jones pinned against the sidelines and barely grazes him with his left arm. Joey Crawford comes barrelling into DJ, knocking him out of bounds. Foul on Billups. Unbelievable. There's a lesson here folks: just because somebody is on television and getting paid a lot of money doesn't mean they are good at their job.

-My favorite moment of the night was seeing a closeup of Alonzo Mourning's face after the game. His expression was sort of a cross between disbelief and pretentious horror. "What? We lost? That's not supposed to happen. We have Shaq. We have Dwyane Wade. We have my biceps. Look at my biceps. Are they not beautiful? Am I not a wonder to behold?" There's another lesson here folks: the NBA gods do not appreciate undeserving mercenaries.

Example 1: Alonzo started the season making way too much money for the Nets. I think. It doesn't matter. He demanded a trade and got sent to Toronto. I think. It doesn't matter. He then refused to report and demanded a buyout which he inexplicably got. He did everything he could to get to MIA where he thought he was the last piece of the puzzle. Didn't quite work out that way, did it? The basketball gods looked upon the Heat with disdain and smote their two best players with inopportune injuries.

Example 2: Jim Jackson; gets traded to NO and again refuses to report. They trade him to PHX for Zarko Car bar ka pa. More basketball god disdain and smiting: they broke Joe Johnson's face.

Example 3: The Lakers, last year. They added Karl Malone and Gary Payton for well below market value. The tandem of four future hall of famers were supposed to dominate the NBA and cruise to a title. Karl Malone gets hurt, Payton plays like a scrub and the Lakers implode in the finals.

*****

So it's Detroit. Series starts Thursday in SA who technically has the home court advantage. The NBA switches up its series scheduling in the finals, switching from 2-2-1-1-1 to 2-3-2. This is likely due to the possible long flights between Eastern and West Conference cities (though SEA is farther from SA than DET). But what's the point of HCA if the other team has played more games on it's home court than you? This will be the case after game 5. Dumb dumb dumb.

I'll post a series preview tomorrow. Here's a preview of my preview: I fear The TayTay.

Wrapping It Up

2005-06-03T12:27:00.000-07:00

I forgot to mention another remarkably stupid play by the Spurs in game 5:

-Manu Ginobili forcing a pass through a double team under his own basket with under two minutes left in the game despite having 3 timeouts remaining (this resulted in an easy layup for Marion).

The Sickness was definitely off his game Wednesday night (rendering my prediction of 30+ points comical by halftime). I believe it's just fatigue; it will be interesting to see how he bounces back after having a whole week of rest. He also was having his leg massaged while on the bench during the 2nd or 3rd quarter. I think he got kneed in the thigh by Q sometime in the first half (the same collision that affected Q and assisted his 0 point night).

Speaking of Quentin Richardson, I've got to give the man two head pounds for his spectacular WCF performance: 10.4 PPG on 19-45 shooting, 3 RPG, 0.8 APG and 1.2 TOPG. I don't usually mind a little demonstration after scoring. I find all the hub bub over Terrell Owens and his vast repertoire of celebrations to be ridiculous and pathetic. But, of course, Terrell Owens is one of the best receivers in the NFL who repeatedly burns defenses. Q stands at the 3P line and waits. If you're going to draw attention to yourself you should first make sure you aren't playing LIKE ABSOLUTE ASS.

Beno Udrih totally needs to come up with a celebration. Like licking his fingers and flattening his eyebrows with them. Or pulling back his jersey to reveal his Slovenian heart and that star-shaped nipple piercing that Janet Jackson made famous.

Back to Manu and his less than usual performance. He seemed to be a step slow and trying too hard to draw fouls instead of making shots. This resulted in 19 points on 15 FGA, 8 REB, 6 AST, 3 STL and 4 TO. That is still pretty damn good. Tony Parker, on the other hand, was real bad. Spurs fans may only remember his 2 3P in the third quarter (which were huge), but he still finished with 18 PTS on 21 FGA, 1 REB, 2 AST and 2 TOs. That's not good folks.

Which leads me to some quick thoughts on the finals. I would much rather play the Heat for the following reasons:

-Either team will play well off TP, encouraging him to shoot. It could very well get to the point where Beno/Barry are forced to play significant minutes; I would much rather have them guarding Damon Jones than Chancey Billups.

-Shaq is no longer Shaq. In fact, from now on se llame El Chack. The Chack's sizeable leg is obviously hurting and he's more of a defensive liability than ever.

-Tony Parker will have an easier time against Miami. Shaq and Mourning are a formidable presence inside, but they're a couple notches below the Wallaces. Also, Billups would give The Wee Frenchman much more trouble than Damon Jones.

-DET has three guys they can throw at Timmeh: Wallace, Wallace and McDyess. The Heat have three only if they are willing to risk Shaq getting into foul trouble. Rasheed is probably the best TD defender in the NBA.

-I don't know if Tayshaun can slow Manu, but I'm pretty damn sure Eddie Jones cannot. Wade is a viable matchup, but he's 2 inches shorter than Manu (and I would love to see Wade chasing around Manu on defense).

-I think Bowen can do a decent job on Dwyane. Bowen has more trouble with guys like Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton who continuously run you off screens and have a quick release. Wade is more of a one on one player like Kobe. Also, Wade does a lot of his scoring on the break. Ask DEN and PHX how easy it is to run on the Spurs. I still expect Dwyane to average about 28-32 points a game, but it will take him 22-26 FGA to do it. Because:

-MIA relies more on the 3 than DET, though not to the level that SEA or PHX does. SA will shut that down and force Wade to hit difficult shots over Bowen/Tim/Nazr/Rasho. They likely won't double team The Chack either.

So I'm rooting for MIA in seven games, but no matter who wins the finals will be the most difficult matchup for the Spurs.

One last thing. PHX deserves a lot of credit for the way they handled themselves against the Spurs. When DEN and SEA realized they couldn't guard Manu they resorted to repeatedly flagrantly fouling him and pretending that it was "part of the game." I never understood the rationale behind that line of thinking; "Well, we cannot beat them playing basketball, so let's turn the game into something else." So, kudos to PHX for not being a bunch of no talent ass clown chumps.

You've Got to Belize

2005-06-01T22:07:00.000-07:00

SA 101 @ PHX 95

That wasn't exactly pretty. Matty da Blade made a comment during the third quarter: "If the Spurs win tonight it will be because PHX loses the game." I have to admit at the time I couldn't think of anything to contradict him. It seemed like every time the Spurs were about to break the game open someone would do something incredibly stupid on the offensive end. Such as:

-Nazr attempting a running one hander out of the lane with more than 5 seconds on the shot clock (prompting Matty to say "Nazr should NEVER shoot the ball unless it's a dunk off an offensive rebound").

-Manu jumping to pass at midcourt and throwing it right to Shawn Marion.

-Tony Parker not getting a shot off before half time (prompting Matty to question if Tony is the worst clock manager in the NBA).

-Tony Parker going 1 on 2 in the fourth and missing a floater.

-Barry passing up a wide open three only to jack up a double-clutched-set-shot three (the first of its kind).

-Beno needlessly forcing a fast break and throwing a layup wildly off the glass (it went in, but still).

I know things aren't this simple, but how about getting the ball to your best players? Again, da Blade summed it up: "If your name doesn't end in 'can' or 'obili' you shouldn't be creating your own shot."

Timmeh carried the load tonight on both ends of the court. He guarded Stoudemire most of the second half and, er, held him to 42 points on 32 field goal attempts. Those are of course gaudy numbers, but coming into tonight's game he was averaging 36 on 24. 6 more points on 8 more shots seems pretty good. That seems like a ridiculous statement, I know.

Before the game Tim Legler suggested that the Spurs needed to run a double team at Amare. The Spurs hadn't double teamed Amare all year and were 5-1 against them when at full strength. Why should they change? SA emphasized slowly down the PHX fast break and their 3P shooting. The latter requires switching the pick and roll, keeping double teams at a minimum and not clogging the lane, all of which help Amare's offensive game. By the way, during the regular season Amare averaged 1.235 points per shot attempt. During the Spurs series that number actually dropped to 1.222. What does that mean? It means his scoring went up because his shots went up (because of what the Spurs emphasize on defense). What does that mean? Nothing, really.

Amare Stoudemire is crazy good on the offensive end. He's already a top 10 offensive player. Easy. But Walton needs to cut the shit about even intimating that he's better than Duncan. There are two damned sides of the court. Amare is great at one end and merely average at the other. I'm sure he will improve and probably eventually become a 1st team all NBA player, but let's just simmer down a bit here. (But, having said that, if you were starting an NBA team right now (thinking long term) who would you pick over Amare? Lebron, sure. Um. Maybe McGrady? I think that's the list folks. Hijo.)

I'll finish up tomorrow night.

I'm Wearing Gabardine Socks

2005-06-01T12:29:00.000-07:00

When I predicted the Spurs would beat the Sonics in 5 games I forgot something very important: SA typically gives away one game per series. 0-17 against DEN. A slew of missed free throws in the 4th quarter in game 3 against SEA. Blowing a 17 point lead against DAL in a potential closeout game in 2003. Almost losing a 25 point lead against LA in game 5 in 2003 (when Horry missed the 3).

Speaking of Robert Horry, he's making $1.1 million this year according to hoopshype.com. Derek Fishes made $4.9. Why does Mullin still have a job? Answer: people are stupid.

I don't want to entirely discredit PHX's performance in game 4. They had some wonderful plays down the stretch. Nash's falling-out-of-bounds pass to Stoudemire. Stoudemire's finishing in the lane over Duncan. Joe Johnson's jumper over Bowen and, of course, Amare's clean block of Timmeh with 30 seconds left. They played well.

The Spurs played awfully. Offense? Sucked. Part of that has to do with D'Antoni and company finally figuring out that Parker can't shoot (only took them 13 quarters!) and that Duncan doesn't like to be double-teamed off the dribble. Defense? Absolutely horrible in parts of the 2nd and most of the 3rd quarter. The Suns got off 18 3s (many of them wide open) which is 3 more than in any other game this series. PHX also dropped over 20 fast break points (many of them from 3).

There's also the Popovich factor, who was dicking around again. He ran out a non-Duncan, non-Manu three separate times. That would not have happened in a game 6 or 7. He also didn't call a timeout in the 3rd quarter after the 8 minute mark, preferring to watch Parker look clueless while SA went from tied to down by 7.

Parker was 5-17 with 6 TOs. He didn't adjust well to the change in defense. Unfortunately his backup, Beno Udrih, kept passing up wide open shots.

Pop will treat this game differently. Parker, having seen this defense against SEA, should know that he needs to stop forcing penetration into a packed lane. Hopefully Duncan will hit the majority of his free throws. The Spurs will defend the transition 3 better and Bowen will spend more time on JJ. And The Sickness will drop 30+ and lead the Spurs into the NBA Finals.

I'm Gone

2005-05-26T22:56:00.000-07:00

I will be out of town until late Monday. So there will be no updates until Tuesday when I will hopefully discuss a sweep.

Putting Manu's Numbers in Perspective

2005-05-25T22:16:00.000-07:00

I have written a lot about Manu Ginobili, aka The Sickness. I suggested that he should be the Spurs first offensive option. I pointed out certain remarkable regular season statistics. I wrote that he was better than Ray Allen.

I have read George Karl complaining about his style of play. I have listened to fans boo him in Denver. I endured one particularly obnoxious SEA fan scream "Faker!" or "Hurt him!" every time he got the ball. I watched Carmelo Anthony/Greg Buckner/Kenyon Martin, Danny Fortson, Nick Collison and Damien Wilkins flagrantly foul him. I've read more than one sports writer comment on how he "just puts his head down and goes to the basket."

There are a lot of things I've wanted to write but my opinions, my amazement and my admiration are easily discounted. After all, when he went behind-the-back against Marion and Stoudemire for a spinning (both the ball and his body) layup I reacted like someone who isn't quite impartial. I jumped up off the couch, took off one of my shoes and threw it across the room. That doesn't make any sense does it? Well, neither does going behind your back with a 1 point lead and 2 minutes on the fourth quarter clock (against an all NBA defender no less). (And the celebration I used during the SEA series was no longer applicable...)

So instead of rambling on I'll simply provide you with some numbers. Some perspective.

Manu Ginobili's current stats in the playoffs through 13 games:

21.8 PPG
283 PTS
152 FGA
52.6 FG%
98-127 FT
25-51 from 3
1.862 PPFGA / 1.697 PPFGA w/o 3PT line
1.361 PPSA (includes FTs) / 1.241 PPSA w/o 3PT line

Using basketballreference.com I looked at past playoff performances (single year) of players that satisfied the following requirements: minimum of 10 playoff games and 15 PPG. I extracted the highest PPFGA performance for each year and have them listed below (PPFGA / PPSA). The 3P line was not added until 1979-1980. Therefore players before that year should be compared to the 1.697 / 1.241 values above.

1949-1950 - Dolph Schayes - 1.27 / 0.97
50-51 - Arnie Risen - 1.12 / 0.91
51-52 - Connie Simmons - 1.34 / 1.08
52-53 - George Mikan - 1.11 / 0.90
53-54 - Dolph Schayes - 1.48 / 1.11
54-55 - Dolph Schayes - 1.25 / 0.98
55-56 - Larry Foust - 1.29
56-57 - Bob Pettit - 1.26
57-58 - Cliff Hagan - 1.38 / 1.15
58-59 - Frank Ramsey - 1.33
59-60 - Bob Pettit - 1.25
60-61 - Jerry West - 1.36
61-62 - Jerry West - 1.32
62-63 - Oscar Robertson - 1.45 / 1.15
63-64 - Oscar Robertson - 1.45 / 1.14
64-65 - Wilt Chamberlain - 1.39 / 1.10
65-66 - Jerry West - 1.34
66-67 - Wilt Chamberlain - 1.43 / 1.09
67-68 - Jerry West - 1.47 / 1.19
68-69 - Jerry West - 1.31
69-70 - Kareem - 1.44 / 1.22
70-71 - Walt Frazier - 1.33
71-72 - Walt Frazier - 1.40 / 1.17
72-73 - Earl Monroe - 1.22
73-74 - Chet Walker - 1.44 / 1.18
74-75 - Don Nelson - 1.45 / 1.26 (15.4 PPG)
75-76 - Phil Smith - 1.28
76-77 - Kareem - 1.57 / 1.29 (34.6 PPG)
77-78 - World B. Free - 1.30
78-79 - George Gervin - 1.36 / 1.17
79-80 - Kareem - 1.38
80-81 - Cedric Maxwell - 1.58 / 1.29
81-82 - Magic - 1.55 / 1.23
82-83 - Moses Malone - 1.44 / 1.17
83-84 - Darryl Dawkins - 1.72 / 1.31
84-85 - Adrian Dantley - 1.68 / 1.24
85-86 - Barkley - 1.67 / 1.26
86-87 - Hakeem - 1.63 / 1.32
87-88 - Danny Schayes - 2.05 / 1.45 (16.4 PPG)
88-89 - MJ - 1.52 / 1.21
89-90 - Terry Porter - 1.58 / 1.25
90-91 - Robert Parish - 1.63 / 1.28
91-92 - Karl Malone - 1.63 / 1.23
92-93 - Shawn Kemp - 1.46 / 1.18
93-94 - B.J. Armstrong - 1.44 / 1.22
94-95 - Kevin Johnson - 1.65 / 1.33
95-96 - Shawn Kemp - 1.62 / 1.28
96-97 - Dikembe - 1.79 / 1.35
97-98 - Shaq - 1.54 / 1.21
98-99 - Tim Duncan - 1.40 / 1.14
99-00 - Steve Smith - 1.51 / 1.27
00-01 - Baron Davis - 1.45 / 1.21
01-02 - Shaq - 1.41 / 1.14
02-03 - Tim Duncan - 1.44 / 1.15
03-04 - Shaq - 1.54 / 1.13

I bolded the players with better numbers than The Sickness. Don Nelson and Kareem didn't shoot many threes, so it would make more sense to compare them to Manu's current numbers (which would leave them behind Ginobili). That leaves Danny Schayes as the only player to put up better numbers than Manu currently has in the categories highlighted.

I am not implying that The Sickness is a better offensive player than Shaq or Jerry West or MJ. However, it is readily apparent that he is having one of the most amazing playoff performances in the history of the NBA.

Mike D'Antoni is an Excellent Driver

2005-05-24T21:23:00.000-07:00

Allow me to set up the situation. Shawn Marion makes a shot to bring the Suns within 3 with 32.3 seconds left. The Spurs have scored on 57 consecutive fourth quarter possessions going back to game 1. You're Mike D'Antoni. You're Kobe Bryant's idol. You're Coach of the Year. You're the "mastermind" behind the vaunted PHX offense. What do you do?

Don't look at me! I'm just a simple unfrozen caveman NBA blogger. You're fancy Xs and Os frighten me. But here's what I wouldn't do; this much is obvious:

You CERTAINLY don't foul the Spurs in that situation. You don't even think about fouling the Spurs. Because, as everyone knows, the Spurs are the best free throw shooting team in the league. Duncan, Bowen and especially Parker are well above average free throw shooters for their positions. Through out the playoffs the Spurs have shown that when a game is on the line they will knock down their FTs. They've never, EVER lost a playoff game solely due to FT shooting.

You also have to consider that the Suns can get that crucial stop whenever they need it. That's how the Suns win. Locking people down. They have all sorts of answers for The Sickness, Parker and Duncan. Steve Nash stayed in front of Parker all night. Q was giving Manu absolute fits out there. And Duncan just looked confused the whole second half. The Spurs were struggling just to get open looks.

Also, let's look back to game 1. The Suns were in a similar situation late in the fourth. They didn't foul, got consecutive stops down the stretch and ended up winning a close game. I'm no NBA coach, but even I know to go with what works.

Think about it, people. The Suns were only down 3 points. The Spurs are a horrible at defending the 3. They allow wide open 3s all the time. That's their achilles heel. The Suns have numerous guys that have proven they can hit the big three against the Spurs. Marion has been unstoppable. Q definitely wants the ball in his hand with the game on the line. These guys are money.

Also, PHX is a great defensive rebounding team. They rarely give up offensive rebounds; not to mention that the Spurs are a horrible offensive rebounding team. So when PHX makes that inevitable stop they will definitely grab the rebound. Write it down people.

Mike D'Antoni: your NBA Coach of the Year.

Extended Comments

2005-05-22T23:07:00.000-07:00

Booth made an extended comment under my previous post, and I decided to make it and my response an entire post.

Booth: Question: I'm watching the 1st quarter right now of game 1: Duncan is indeed defending Marion, leaving Nazr on The Stud. Do YOU agree with this matchup? You've constantly noted Mohammed's defensive liabilities, noted Rasho's not a good fit against Amare... and standing in the shadows(?) is THAT guy: former defensive MVP Timmeh. What gives? Granted Stoudemire's not the ideal matchup, but stopping him and Nash are gonna be a key point to the series, more so than containing the x-factor blah blah marion (and wouldn't bowen be a much better defensive matchup on marion too?) Or does Duncan contribute better as a weakside helping defensive presence off the main players/plays of the opposing team? Is it to reserve his energy for offense? Limit foul troubles?

Me: You, for the most part, answered your own question. I agree with putting Duncan on the weakest offensive big man the majority of the time. It theoretically accomplishes the following:

A) Keeps him out of foul trouble.
B) Allows him to leave his man and help on penetration (block shots).
C) Allows him to be a more effective defensive rebounder.

If necessary, Duncan occasionally switches over to the main big man in the fourth quarter depending on his foul situation. However, I wish Pop would be quicker on the trigger. Not necessarily specifically against the Suns, just in general.

It was clear to me that the Spurs decided to initially play the pick and roll soft; similar to how DAL approached the Nash / whoever combo. It encourages Nash to shoot. This is bad in that he's pretty money (baby) but it's good in that the three point shooters don't get off. The problem is that Nazr plays it too soft. There's a big difference between wide open 18 and 15 footers, and Mohammed's giving up the latter when he should be encouraging the former. Is that a minor quibble? Sure. But Pop doesn't think so; it led directly to a time out in the first half.

I liked how the Spurs totally changed their pick and roll defense in the fourth quarter; they began aggressively trapping Nash. This led to 3 AST, 2 TOs for Nash and 0 3P for the team.

Booth: What'd you see out of the season series regarding this?

Me: Like Shaq, Duncan never, EVER guards quality big men during the regular season. I've read some comments saying that Amare torched Duncan during the regular season; I never saw Timmeh guarding him. Not that he could, but he would do a better job than any other Spur. Non-Duncan will continute to guard The Stud as long as the Spurs keep beating PHX. Let's not forget that the only time PHX beat the Spurs Manu and Tim were in street clothes. And that was a close game. SA crushed them at home and beat them in overtime in PHX (the 48 PT game for Manu; Parker actually had the flu that night and only played 20ish minutes).

Booth: Changing a pick and roll scenario from AD/Luke & James (for which the Spurs played ridiculously bad in games 4 & 5 IMO) to Nash & Stoudemire... I'd be in the fetal position right about now.

Me: Yep, that's why I asked for someone to "hold me."

Booth: Saw a comment that Manu is physically exhausted right now.

Me: Not surprising. He's not quite the same. With playoffs and the Olympics he hasn't had much time off in the past two and a half years. He seemed a little slow tonight, which led to 20 points on 10 FGA. I have to admit, I was a little, erm, hurt when SG wrote that he loves hating Manu. I have a lot more to say about the media and The Sickness, but that will have to wait.

Booth: San Antonio-Seattle series as jarring evidence that the Spurs are not playing at their best right now (seriously, please explain to me how the best defensive team got worked on the standard pick & roll so much? I was in shock just watching it.)

Me: A mixture of horrible pick and roll defense (mostly from Nazr though Tim contributed as well), some really good passing from SEA guards and great shooting from Ridnour and Daniels. Also, SA plays to their competition. Always have. But you're right, the Spurs aren't "firing on all cylinders." Lots of injuries (Manu, Tim, Rasho and Devin are not 100%) are the main reasons. Parker's exposed weakness is another.

Western Conference Finals Preview

2005-05-22T11:34:00.000-07:00

More like a "midview" considering this will be finished right before game time. Alright, real quick like:

The Suns have three main ways of scoring: 3 pointers, the fast break and pick and roll with Nash and He Who Scares Me More Than Nash.

First 3 pointers. During the regular season, PHX scored 26.4% of their points via 3Ps. This percentage went down to 25.3% during the playoffs. As I pointed out before the Sonics series, the Spurs allow by far the fewest amount of 3P attempts in the NBA. During the regular season, SEA attempted 22.2 3P per game. That came down to 13.0 against the Spurs in the playoffs. (Yes, I know two of SEA's 3 big 3P shooters missed most of the series. That's not enough to explain the huge drop off). PHX averaged 24.7 3PA during the regular season but only 15.3 against the Spurs. It's by design people. 3 > 2: Gregg Popovich is a genius, Q.E.D.

News flash: the Suns like to run. So did DEN. The Spurs do not take a lot of bad shots, generally do not turn the ball over a lot (6th in the league; though they will undoubtedly throw in a nice 22 TO game sometime in this series) and make it a point to get a minimum of two guys back at all times. Any of you folks watch game 6 of the DAL-PHX series? Towards the end, with less than 3 minutes to go in a tight game, Marion leaked out for a layup and the foul. That sort of crap doesn't happen against the Spurs.

Now for the Stoudemire/Nash pick and roll. Somebody hold me. Amare makes me weak in the knees. He's like Lebron in the following manner: he's about *this* far from figuring "it" out and becoming entirely unguardable. Here's Amare's average line against SA this year: 38.7 PTS on 20 FGA and 12.3 FTA. That's what I like to call "stupid good." Part of the reason behind this is how the Spurs defended the pick and roll. The big man would hedge out, without "jumping" the pick and roll, and Nash's man would go over the top and sort of sag trying to cut off the passing lane to Amare. It seriously limited Nash (13 PPG) but allowed Amare to get about 8 dunks a game on perfect bounce passes from He Who Certainly Didn't Deserve the MVP Award.

Will the Spurs play the pick and roll differently during the playoffs? Absolutely, if for no other reason that Mohammed didn't play a single minute in any of the regular season games. (A quick note: Tim Duncan rarely, if ever, guards the other team's "good" big man. Amare saw a lot of Rasho and Horry.) This, of course, scares the living shit out of me. For 90% of the playoffs Nazr has been a horrible pick and roll defender. However, the 10% of time he didn't suck happened to be the last 6 quarters of basketball he played. He was so bad during the first half of game 5 that I was forced to write something about him during the break. I presume Pop ripped him a new one in the locker room because he played the pick and roll entirely differently during the last half of the game. Jumping the dribbler aggressively; hands moving, active, finally figuring out that standing in the lane is not pick and roll defense. Hopefully he'll retain this knowledge during the PHX series. (It should be noted that as a purely one on one defender against Stoudemire, Nazr is a huge step up over Rasho.)

If those three offensive options break down, PHX simply gives the ball to Nash and let's him do his thing, which (along with atrocious pick and roll defense) led to him averaging about 30 PPG against the Mavericks. This won't happen against the Spurs. Parker is a much better defender than Terry and SA actually plays team oriented defense (while DAL stands around and screams at each other).

Which leads to how PHX's defense stacks up against SA's offense. I only have 11 minutes, so I'll make this quick.

PHX isn't as bad defensively as people think; they are actually 16th in defensive efficiency.

Nash cannot stay in front of Parker. However, assuming D'Antoni has any tape of the games 3,4,5 or 6 of the SEA series, he'll go under every pick and roll, play Nash 4 feet off him and beg Monsieur Parker to shoot the outside J.

Shawn Marion will be guarding Tim Duncan. Uh. OK. Good luck with that.

Q Richardson, due to Joe Johnson's injury (out for at least game 1), will have apparently guard Manu (this is what I've heard; Jackson on Bowen). This is comical.

Those are some bad matchups for PHX. And when The Sickness gets to the basket at will, who's going to foul him? You only play 7/8 players and you make it a point not to foul.

I see this series as a continuation of The Sickness' journey to NBA Finals MVP.

Spurs in 6.

"I Assassin Down the Avenue"

2005-05-19T23:24:00.000-07:00

That Wilco quote goes out to The Sickness, who blew by whoever and rifled the game winning pass to Tim. (Note: I just saw the replay, and Manu didn't blow by anyone; AD was still in front of him when he passed the ball.)

A big fuck you to the sizeable portion of Sonics fans for cheering when Tim Duncan rolled his ankle. And then booing when he got up to walk it off! Nice touch. I now am beginning to understand why you have taken such a liking to a no talent ass clown punk like Danny Fortson.

Kudos to Ridnour, Collison, Wilkins, and especially Daniels, who played out of his mind the whole series. He was relentless; evidence: he actually shot 14 more free throws this series than Ray Allen. I honestly felt a little bad for former Spur Antonio at the end there; I take solace in the fact that he's a free agent and will probably be feeding Yao Ming and T-Mac next year. Ridnour and Collison should be a decent combo if Collison learns to control his fouls. Wilkins, unlike Rashard, seems willing to take big shots and/or take the ball to the rack. Lewis passed up so many shots in game 3 that I was actually hoping he would play tonight. (By the way, I was 100% wrong when I said Rashard Lewis was a better offensive player than Ray Allen.)

McMillan did a great job coming up with a defensive scheme and sticking to it. He did the best he could with the resources he had. Now, if he's smart, he'll do the best with the opportunity he has and give Lebron a call.

I will write some more this weekend about the Spurs performance. I'll close this up with a rough transcript of what I told da Blade during the t.v. timeout with 0.5 seconds left in the fourth:

"If there's a God it won't happen again. Look, Matty, I know I'm not perfect. I'm not a great person. But I don't deserve two of these. I cannot handle another miracle shot. Can somebody just tell me what happens right now? I don't even want to watch it live. Maybe I'll just turn the t.v. off."

...And I'll be damned if that thing didn't look good the whole way.

Incessant Prattling Part 3

2005-05-17T23:50:00.000-07:00

I did another internet radio show after the game tonight. Lance Williams, who hosts "Swish" over at mysportsradio.com, was nice enough to have me on. It was all Spurs talk for about 5 minutes. I was impressed with his knowledge of the team and subsequently spent half the time agreeing with him. The show isn't up yet, but I assume it will be sometime tomorrow.

The Sickness: He's Above Average

2005-05-17T22:52:00.000-07:00

Given my previous post, I have no choice but to talk about Nazr. He had a great offensive game tonight. 19 points on 8-10 shooting, the majority of those being dunks off of either a great pass (mostly Manu) or an offensive rebound.

He's a better offensive player than Rasho. I've never said otherwise. He also is willing to dunk the ball (usually after a myriad of upfakes), which is, in most Spurs fans' eyes, the key thing that Rasho lacks. But, as I've said before, he is a horrible team defender. He accounted for no less than six botched pick and rolls in the first half. He obviously got ripped a new one at half time because he jumped pick and roll much better in the third quarter. If he learns how to be even an adequate team defender than I would absolutely support him getting minutes over Rasho (or Massenburg, etc.).

For all the Nazr defenders and fans, I have some questions. If he's so much better than Rasho, explain the following:

With Nazr on the court during the playoffs the Spurs are +0 (in 213 minutes) (this is by far the worst of any Spur who has gotten regular minutes).
With Nazr off the courth during the playoffs the Spurs are +78 (in 222 minutes).

With Rasho on the court during the playoffs the Spurs are +25 (in only 78 minutes).
With Rasho off the court during the playoffs the Spurs are +53 (in 356 minutes).

With Nazr on the court during the regular season the Spurs were -56 points (416 minutes).
With Nazr off the court during the regular season the Spurs were +698 points (3538 minutes).

With Rasho on the court during the regular season the Spurs were +409 (1780 minutes).
With Rasho off the court during the regular season the Spurs were +233 (2173 minutes).

Explain those numbers (all from 82games.com). And if your explanation is anything similar to "+/- stats are meaningless" then you are either stupid or trying to piss me off. Either way, please stop reading my blog.

So let's talk about the game now. And by "talking about the game," I mean lavishing The Sickness with praise. After the game Charles Barkley said something very similar to the following:

"If some no name coach had Ginobili and allowed him to take 20 shots a game he would average 25 points. EASY."

His line: 39 points on 10-15 FGA, 4-6 from 3, 15-17 from FT, 4 REB, 6 AST, 2 STL, 1 TO in 36 minutes. Those numbers are somewhere past "off the charts." Those numbers are "NBA Live on the rookie level" type numbers. 2.60 points per FGA. 1.73 points per shot attempt. I'll PayPal somebody $5 if they can find a playoff performance since 1990 (Wilt probably did it a bunch of times) where a player had 39 points or more with a higher PPFGA or PPSA. By the way, PPSA = PTS / (FGA + .44*FTA).

He had some dunks. He hit his threes. He had a couple of finger rolls. He had a couple of fall aways. He got Ray in early foul trouble. Despite having the ball most of the game, he had only 1 turnover (late in the 4th when the outcome was already decided). He put his mark on the game early. 19 points in the first half. 20 in the second. His style is always aggressive, always unorthodox and often awkward looking. He's The Sickness.

I said this months ago, but he should be the Spurs first option on offense. Right now both Parker and Duncan have more shot attempts per game in the playoffs. He at least needs to be ahead of Parker.

Speaking of, Parker had another off night. 11 points on 4-13 shooting (3 of those baskets coming late in the 4th with the game already decided). 5 REB, 2 AST, no TOs. Look people, I've been saying it all along, he's a bad jump shooter. SEA knows this and are playing off him, going under the pick and roll and packing the lane. There's no adjustment he can make right now to increase his scoring. He needs pick his spots on the break and kick the ball out earlier on the few half court drives he does get. He also needs to yield the floor to Manu. During the offseason he needs to first change his shot and then work on it. This wrist-flicking crap ain't gonna work.

He just turned 23. Cut him some slack.

The Spurs finally played decent pick and roll defense in the second half. They trapped Allen often and did a good job of limiting his good looks. He finished with 19 points on 21 shots. The better pick and roll defense limited Ridnour as well, who scored less points tonight (12) than in the 3rd quarter in game 4 (15). As is their MO, the Spurs limited 3PA to 13.

Another key to the game was the Spurs taking care of the basketball; only 9 TOs compared to 23 in the previous game.

This series is by no means over. They need to hammer home pick and roll defense to Nazr and continue trapping Allen. Limiting offensive boards would be nice, too (SEA had 13 tonight). On offense the Spurs need to continue to take care of the ball and keep The Sickness the vocal point of the offense.

Also, it might be a good time to bench Brent Barry. He played 22 minutes tonight. 0-3. 1 personal foul. That's it. No rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals or blocks. Da Blade has given him the nickname "The Cooler." He has, let's say, some strong feelings about Brent Barry. Hopefully he'll take the time to elaborate.

Nazr Mohammed is Killing the Spurs

2005-05-17T19:55:00.000-07:00

It's half time, locked up at 50-50.

How many times? How many times will Nazr Mohammed butcher the pick and roll before he gets yanked? What's wrong with Rasho? If he's hurt, why did he play 20 minutes last game? What about Massenburg?

Nazr is DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE for 6 easy Sonics baskets. He sits back on the pick and roll and doesn't guard anybody. He just sits in the middle of the paint. This is why I have no respect for 99% of basketball announcers: it's so damned obvious and no one is bringing it up.

He would have to grab 10-15 offensive rebounds a game to make up for his atrocious defense. When he's on the court the Spurs are +0 for the playoffs. When's he's off the court they are +78. How much more obvious could it be? What exactly would he have to do to be benched? Sit down on defense? Kick Duncan in the nuts? What else would he have to do?

poczytaj sobie dobra lekturke

2005-05-16T12:41:00.000-07:00

I don't know what that says. Maybe something like "Check out this American dumbass..." It's from here, which I think is an Eastern European basketball message board. What language is that anyway? I need a translation. And, from now on, I will occasionally refer to Nazr Mohammed as "Dobra Lekturke."

Matt over at Bulls Blog has put together another "Carnival of the NBA." A recently published FDA study has shown that reading NBA blogs decreases one's risk of hypoglycemia. So do yourself a favor and check it out.

Lastly, but certainly not leastly, The Guamian, aka Booth.52, has (finally) started his own blog. You can find it here.

Twenty-Five

2005-05-15T23:59:00.000-07:00

Twenty-fucking-five. More on that later.

*****

Before I, uh, let loose, I have to give credit to the Sonics. Ray Allen, after being positively horrendous is game 3 (6-23), hit a host of difficult shots on his way to 32 points on 20 FGA. Luke Ridnour also had a huge game, hitting wide open runner after wide open jump shot. He finished with 20 points on 15 FGA. Both of them were key in SEA's huge 3rd quarter, where they scored 36 points on 127% shooting. As good as Ridnour was, Antonio Daniels was probably even better, with 19 points on 13 FGA.

Also, give credit to Nate McMillan for being the first NBA coach this year to figure out Tony Parker is a bad jump shooter. At one point Tony had the ball one foot inside the three point line at the top of the key. Antonio Daniels, who was "guarding" him, was at the free throw line, going under consecutive attempts at a pick and roll. I've said it time and time again, why would any team play up on a guy who A)is one of the quickest players in the league and B) shoots under 30% from 3?

And by the way, SA never had a lead in this game.

*****

I can imagine Timmeh sitting on the plane ride home, looking at the stat sheet. 35 points on 19 FGA. 10 REB. 2 BLK. Nobody else had more than 15 points. Nobody else had more than 7 boards. Maybe, just maybe he thought "Wow, this must be how KG feels."

Tim had a good game. He was aggressive, hit his free throws and crashed the offensive glass. Everyone one else either sucked or sucked hard. Both Parker and Ginobili are forcing penetration, trying to create something against a Seattle defense packing it in. The Wee Frenchman attempted exactly zero of his signature floaters tonight. It's as if both of them are trying to prove they aren't intimidated by the rampant physicality of Seattle's big men.

SA also over-compensated with their pick-and-roll defense. In game 3 the big men were stepping out and the rotations weren't quick enough which led to numerous uncontested dunks. In game 4 the big men didn't step out. At all. Which led to no dunks but instead to numerous uncontested 12-18 footers. At the end of the third quarter Ridnour came off a pick and roll and Duncan basically stayed right under the basket. Luke shot the laziest 8 foot runner I've ever seen. I think he yawned half-way through.

The Spurs also turned the ball over 15 times in the first half and 20 for the game. Lousy team offense + lousy team defense = blowout.

The Sickness was the least sucky of all the non-Duncan Spurs, but we needed more from him. Of course when you're on the bench FOR HALF OF THE MOTHERFUCKING GAME IT'S HARD TO DO A GODDAMNED THING. Twenty-five fucking minutes.

Look people, I'm sure Gregg Popovich has forgotten more about basketball than I'll ever know blah blah blah. He's know more about Xs and Os and 4-downs and that run-his-hand-across-his chest play. He's learned things about these players that I will never know. He knows about individual personalities. He knows that Devin Brown is afraid of snakes and Nesterovic's favorite flavor of ice cream is mint-chocolate-chip. He's heard that Duncan recently switched from briefs to boxer briefs because he a bad, bad case of epididymitis. Maybe I am a fucking idiot and have absolutely no damn clue what I'm talking about.

But you know, if I had a guy on my team that had the THIRD HIGHEST +/- IN THE WHOLE FREAKING LEAGUE DURING THE REGULAR SEASON I just might think it would be better for him to be on the court than on the bench. I'm just talking out loud here. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe that WHOLE SEASONS WORTH OF DATA is a bunch of shit.

And maybe, if I looked at my team and saw that TWO PLAYERS HAD +/- OF OVER 15 I just might think "Hmm, maybe one of them should be on the court at all times."

Please Pop, STOP DICKING AROUND. This is the playoffs. There's no more time for "teaching players lessons" or "trying to find a lineup that works." Here's a fucking clue: TP-MG-BB-TD-RS outscored their opponents by 18.25 POINTS PER 48 MINUTES DURING THE REGULAR SEASON. There's your damned "lineup that works". Dance with the motherfucking horse that brought you.

For fuck's sake, it's one thing to start Brent "I am required to make one obscenely bad pass per game" Barry against the Nuggets when he could guard either Buckner of DerMarr Johnson. Which Sonic is he supposed to guard? You obviously do not think he can guard Lewis because you're doubling him whenever he gets the ball. And he certainly cannot guard Allen, Ridnour or Daniels. So why the fuck is he out there? To shoot threes? Manu's just a good 3P shooter as he is. If Brent cannot shoot 3s coming off the bench then I have a splendid idea: LEAVE HIM ON THE GODDAMNED BENCH.

There's a novel idea. You actually do not have to play all your players during the playoffs! True story! During the regular season you can get away with playing your big guns an average of only 30-35 minutes a game because you sometimes encounter really fucking bad teams. Last time I checked, "really fucking bad teams" don't make the playoffs.

But, again, I'm no coach. What the fuck do I know?

Maybe Parker really does need to sit out the last 2 minutes of every first quarter. And maybe he really does need to sit out during the first 6 minutes of every second quarter, too. Maybe he needs that fifteen minute break. Maybe between quarters he retires to the locker room and masturbates furiously to photos of Eva Longoria. Maybe this tires him out. Maybe he's really 42 instead of 22 and thus can only play 36 minutes a game while Steve Nash plays 38.

Yeah, yeah, I know Ginobili had 2 fouls in the first quarter. So what? Put him on Ridnour and tell him not to foul. If he gets his third then sit him. Give him the chance.

What fucking kills me is it's not like the backups are playing worth a shit. Udrih would rather dribble wildly to the basket that shoot open 3s. Barry also enjoys fruitless trips into the paint and couldn't guard Sue Bird. And on the defensive end Nazr looks like he's being controlled by a 2 year old holding his PS2 joystick upside down. Big Dog is shoving people into refs and complaining about non-calls while his man runs down the court for a layup.

Here's your rotation. Feel free to print a copy for yourself!

Parker
The Sickness
Bowen
Duncan
Nestie

Horry for Duncan at the 8 minute mark
Barry for Ginobili at 4
Duncan for Nestie at 4
Beno for Parker at 2
Brown for Bowen at 2

Mohammed for Horry to start the 2nd
Parker for Barry at 10
Ginobili for Udrih at 10
Nestie for Duncan at 8
Bowen for Brown at 6
Horry for Mohammed at 6
Duncan for Nestie at 6

Something similar for the second half gives you:

Parker 40 minutes
Ginobili 36 minutes
Bowen 32 minutes
Duncan 36 minutes
Nestie 20 minutes

Nazr 12 minutes
Horry 28 minutes
Barry 12 minutes
Beno 8 minutes
Brown 16 minutes

This affords either Manu or Tim on the court at all times. Also, either Nestie or Duncan are on the court at all times, too. The 36 minutes between Barry, Beno and Brown can be redistributed based on matchups and who's actually willing to shoot open 3s that night.

Look, I'm not blaming Pop for the loss. He's not responsible for the turnovers or the botched pick and rolls. But he's fucking up the one thing he's responsible for: getting your best players on the court in an intelligent manner and as much as possible. No amount of strategerie or tinkering can make up for talent. Play your best players. This is not the time to "prove a point" or to "teach a lesson" or to "mix and match." This is not the time to "get some guys some rest." (What exactly would they be resting for anyways? There's at most 16 games left spread out over about 40 days.)

The playoffs are about riding your horses to the finish line. Which, if Ginobili keeps getting 25 minutes, will be here sooner than expected.

WWJD

2005-05-13T12:09:00.000-07:00

You've seen the box score. You know the numbers. 19-34 from the line. 8-16 in the 4th quarter. Out rebounded by 11 (including 14 SEA offensive).

But I don't think that's the real story. We'll get to that later.

Here's a side story. The Spurs played the most atrocious pick and roll defense that I can recall seeing. Ever. Jerome James had no less than 5 dunks off the pick and roll, 3 of them being over Tim Duncan as he rotated from the weak side. Part of the reason behind this inexcusable behavior is Nazr Mohammed, who has absolutely no fucking clue on defense. There's a reason he has a net +/- of -72 in the playoffs (and -26 against SEA). I'd rather see Massenburg get his minutes.

The real story is, well, the same as it ever was. Offensive aggression, specifically of the Spurs best player. It was the Spur's biggest problem when their main man was David Robinson and it's their biggest problem now. I know he shot the ball about 23 times last night. It's not enough. Not against single coverage by the likes of Jerome James, Reggie Evans, Danny Fortson, Nick Collison and Potato. Get the ball. Go to the basket. It's not complicated. You don't need to stand there for ten seconds making the same foot fakes. Shoot the banker or go.

Sunday will be very indicative of the Spurs title chances. This is more than a must win. This isn't about SEA. This isn't about last night's game or flagrant fouls. This isn't about making up for the missed shot over Potato that would have won the game. This is about establishment. This is about Tim Duncan. This is about where he stands amongst the greats. Is he Larry Bird or Karl Malone? Is he Michael Jordan or Reggie Miller? Is he Shaquille O'Neal or David Robinson? Is he Hakeem Olajuwon or Patrick Ewing?

Allow me to simplify: if Tim Duncan does not drop 30 on SEA come Sunday the Spurs aren't winning a championship.

Last night I watched Reggie Evans get in Duncan's face and talk shit to him for about 60 consecutive seconds. Last night I watched Duncan miss 6 important free throws. Last night I watched Tim Duncan miss a 4 footer to win the game. And last night I watched Jerome James, who dunked on Duncan 3 times (staring him down afterwards each time), say "I don't give them no respect."

What Would Jordan Do in this situation? He'd go up to James before Sunday's tip-off and say "I'm about to drop fifty are your scrubby fat ass." And then he'd do it. What would Shaq do? He'd get the ball on the first possession, go right through James and dunk in his face. He would then take out his 24" cock and slap James right in the face with it. Yeah, I just said that. Because that's what this is about.

The Spurs need that sort of game out of Tim Duncan. Tony Parker could come out and drop 25 on SEA, weaving in and out of the lane and getting easy looks. The Sickness could slither past all defenders and go for 25 on 15 FGA. But it wouldnt' be the same. This is about responding to being called out by a fat, lazy, no talent ass clown in Jerome James. This is about marking your territory. Claiming your stake. Settling the score.

Sunday is about aggression. Sunday is about domination. Sunday is about revenge.

Game 2 - More of the Same

2005-05-12T11:48:00.000-07:00

SA 108 vs. SEA 91

Not much changed in game 2. Ginobili took over where Parker left off, repeatedly blowing right by any number of Sonic defenders. Duncan, Parker and The Sickness seemingly got any shot they wanted all night; the team shot over 50% from the field for the second time in a row. SEA had a marginally better inside presence; basically in the form of hard fouls on Parker and Ginobili. That, combined with Reggie Evans inexplicably jumping around exuberantly for no apparent reason, seemed to displease TIMMEH, who actually sort of got in the face of JJ and Rashard. Sort of. Well, not really. But he was seriously peeved off.

Bruce Bowen was the recipient of some, let's say, curious foul calls, playing only 17 minutes due to foul trouble. I'm sure the liberal whistles had NOTHING to do with Ray's constant griping to the press. EVERYBODY knows that NBA referees are the BEST at what they do and are never influenced by anyone or anything. They are actually impervious to all human interaction. I've seen the studies.

Ray played 42 minutes on him "bum" ankle, scoring 25 points on 14 FGA and contributing absolutely nothing on the defensive end. I think my favorite Ray Allen defensive highlight of the night occurred on a fast break where Robert Horry got an easy layup. Ray was at the basket and could have taken a charge or at least fouled Big Shot Rob. Instead he quite elegantly stepped aside, not even taking a token swipe at the ball. However, his Jordan XXs were nice and shiny.

I don't think it's a good sign when Bruce Bowen plays only 17 minutes (at one point Brent Barry was guarding Ray), Ray gets 10 FT and hits 3 threes, Duncan goes to the line only 3 times and you still lose by 17. SEA, however, did have their first lead of the series in the first quarter. For about 60 seconds. They never led again and didn't get closer than 9 in the second half.

This doesn't mean SEA can't win tonight. But it would probably take a bad and lackluster performance from the Spurs, who seem motivated and focused to a point I've never seen. I'll be there, along with The Wife and The Guamish.

Lastly, if I see The Sickness pass up one more wide open three I am going to have a seizure. SHOOTAR EL BALLO POR FAVOR.

Predictions are dumb, I know, but how can I resist when I only missed game 2 by a total of 3 points? The Spurs will drop the hammer:

SA 102 @ SEA 91

Just Imagine If He Shot Every Time He Was Open...

2005-05-10T23:51:00.000-07:00

For the playoffs, Manu Ginobili has scored 152 points on 82 FGA, for 1.85 PPS. That my friends, if so freaking off the charts it's not even funny. It's early, of course, but this has to be noted. (Ray Allen has 195 on 128 for 1.52, also crazy good.)

By the way, the best Shaq has ever managed in a championship run is 1.42 PPS.

Game Numero Dos en Vivo!

2005-05-10T18:06:00.000-07:00

The Guamish (booth.52 over at supersonicsoul.com) and I are going to have a little running commentary in the comments below this here post. Da Blade will hopefully be joining us. Feel free to chime in; unless, of course, you are stupid and/or unfunny. I've got that covered.

Let Me Spell It Out For You

2005-05-10T12:14:00.000-07:00

Note: I added a direct link to the NBA portion of the Sports Bloggers Live internet radio show. See previous post.

Barring an injury to one of the Spurs Big Three, the Sonics aren't winning this series. They can, however, win a game (possible) or two (highly unlikely). Here's how:

A) Pray the Spurs have one of those games. Spurs fans know what I am talking about. Totally lackluster play with numerous unforced turnovers and/or a well-placed 0-17 shooting drought that includes a dozen easily makeable shots.

B) Go to a 2-3 zone for the whole game. Look people, the Sonics are a HORRIBLE defensive team. They have nobody that can stay in front of Tony Parker or The Sickness. They have only one guy that can challenge shots in the paint (JJ). They have one guy (JJ) that has a prayer when it comes to slowing Duncan. They have no chance of slowing the Spurs straight up. That's why they have to go to a 2-3 zone.

And when I say 2-3, I mean five guys in the paint at all times. Put JJ right under the basket with Evans and Lewis on the boxes. Allen and Ridnour man the elbows. Nobody is allowed within 5 feet of Tony Parker until he gets into the paint. The guy is an awful jump shooter. Luke Ridnour has a better jump shot than The Wee Frenchman (yes, Sonics fans, he's that bad). The Sonics should be begging him to shoot outside the paint. Go under every screen, play way, way, way off him (I'm talking cornerback-defending-Randy-Moss off him). The Spurs do have some good outside shooters (Barry, Manu, Udrih, Horry, Brown, G. Robinson), but, hey, maybe they go cold or maybe the Spurs start trying to force the ball into TD despite the immediate triple team. Either of those scenarios are more likely than Parker/'Nobili missing easy layups or Fortson/Collison/Potato figuring out a way to guard Duncan without fouling him.

***

Sometime later this week I'll post my thoughts on the MVP.

Here's something ESPN's Eric Neel wrote about Tony Parker (taken from the Monday's Daily Dime):

"Twenty-nine on 11-of-18? Twenty-nine pretty much all on layups and blow-by runners? Twenty-nine as an opening salvo?

If they weren't keyed on you before, Tony Parker, you can bet they're coming for you now. Just like the Lakers did a year ago after you ran by Payton like he was a pigeon perch in the park. You can count on it. You can expect the muscle in Game Two. A little more jamming and grabbing from young Luke and AD, a well-timed high-post pick, maybe another Potapenko or two.

It's all coming. But here's the thing, Tony: They can't stop you. You're only 22, and you've only ever played for the most buttoned-down, professional crew in the league, so maybe you're not quite feeling the truth of that in all its puffed-chest glory. But true it is. They can't stop you.

They'll challenge you, sure, but if you rise up to that moment, if you channel the spirit of Isiahs-and-Iversons-gone-by, you'll own them. You're too quick, too good to both hands, too versatile on the fly and with the floater, for it to be otherwise. Do you realize this, TP? Can you build now on where you were after the first couple of games against the Lakers last time 'round? Can you sense that this is your fly-up moment? Are you ready for the rising? If you are, this thing's over, long before Duncan gets warm and Manu comes calling. If you are, it's over right now."

More Fun on the (Internet) Radio

2005-05-09T16:45:00.000-07:00

Update: Here's the direct link to the NBA portion (I'm after Dave the Heat blogger).

The fine folks over at Sports Bloggers Live invited me back onto their internet radio show. We talked about the MVP debate, why I call Manu "The Sickness" and other various Spurs topics. David from Crazy From the Heat was on right before me and definitely worth a listen (he also has a wicked awesome accent). I do not yet have a direct link to my portion but will post it ASAP.

I fear I may have (especially) sounded like fool during my "Sickness" explanation, so I'll repost my original reasons here:

"I have a nickname for Manu Ginobili. What you've all been waiting for, no doubt. I have to give some credit to the very nearly senile Dick Stockton. Half the time he says "mah-no" instead "ma-new," which led to this:

The Sickness.

How bad is that? And by "bad," I mean good. Or do I? The Wife thinks it's downright awful; even calling it geigh at one point. I explained to her that "sick" means good, but she wouldn't have any of that. Didn't matter.

But I like the way it sounds. And the way Manu plays is sort of a twisted, warped version of normal NBA basketball. Wrong-footed jumpers, long-striding through the lane attempting layups no one else even sees, behind-the-back-across-the-court passes. And, AND, it doubles as a sweet wrestling OR And-1 nickname. He's The Sickness."

*****

Coincidentally, today I stumbled across a gif of his "behind-the-back-across-the-court pass."

It's Just One Game

2005-05-08T20:29:00.000-07:00

SA 103 vs. SEA 81

The sportswriters will definitely highlight the Sonics injuries during Sunday's game 1. And they should. With about 8:40 to go in the second quarter Vladimir Radmanovic stepped on Brent Barry's foot and rolled his ankle badly. He had to be carried off the court but his X-rays were negative. I don't see him coming back this year considering how bad it looked and the fact this is the same leg he injured towards the end of the season.

On the very next possession Ray Allen drove down the lane and stepped on Bowen's foot as Bruce cut in front of him. He, too, rolled his right ankle, though not nearly as badly. His X-rays were also negative but he didn't play the rest of the game.

At the time of the two injuries the Spurs had a 13 point lead. In fact, like the last time these two teams faced each other, the Sonics never had a lead. I realize this was just one game, but I don't see any positive signs for SEA.

Yesterday I wrote: "You're telling me Luke Ridnour is going to guard Tony Parker? Are you serious? The Wee Frenchmen will eat him alive, and when he does, who's going to challenge Parker's shot in the paint?" As expected, Tony dominated the PG position, scoring 29 points on only 18 FGA. In fact, the first Spurs possession had Tony isolated on the wing. He went right by Luke for the layup and the foul.

To be fair to Luke, he had absolutely no help inside. SEA's team defense is atrocious. At one point sometime in the first half Tony took the ball from out of bounds about 60 feet from the basket, immediately went by his man and dribbled all the way to the paint for an 8 foot floater. Look, I understand not having perimeter defenders capable of staying in front of Parker and Ginobili. I also understand not having shot blockers; they are a rare commodity. But what about just trying to stop the ball?

SEA also had all sorts of trouble with Duncan. They threw lots of guys at him, and consequently James, Fortson and Collison all had 2 fouls by the end of the first quarter. Like I said before, James is there only hope against TD. Speaking of, Jerome finished with 4 points on 2-8 shooting and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes.

Manu didn't have to do much with the domination of Timmeh and Tony. He surprisingly (to me, anyway) came off the bench and Ray Allen was forced to guard him. The only one-on-one matchup I can recall resulted in a layup for The Sickness.

I would like to close with the live comments from Supersonicsoul.com. I had no idea The Guamanian (booth.52) was so hilarious. And by the way, I don't collect teddy bears; I collect Dero, there's a difference.

Exclusive Interview with Spurs Coach P.J. Carlesimo

2005-05-07T20:34:00.000-07:00

You read that right, folks. Four months ago this was just another crappy sports blog in a sea of other crappy sports blog. No longer my friends! I have made the leap to "serious sports journalist." I will now use the following terms without discretion: "momentum," "scorer," "energy player," "little things," "clutch player," "fundamentals," "Derek Jeter is a Yankee" and my personal favorite, "rhythm team."

I must give credit where credit is due. Matty da Blade, San Antonio Spurs Blog's Official Intrepid Field Reporter (SASBOIFR), went deep into the heart of the infamous San Antonio Chinatown area for this exclusive report:

MdB, SASBOIFR: "Good luck tomorrow."
P.J. Carlesimo: "Thank you."

Oh, that's not all folks. MdB closely watched P.J. as he ate his won ton soup appetizer, and it was readily apparent to all that P.J. is ready for this series. He'll have a hard time locking down Dwane Casey, but he's prepared for the challenge.

Tune in tomorrow where I'll reveal which Spurs jersey P.J.'s son, grandson or nephew was wearing! Only hear at http://www.nbaspurs.blogspot.com!

Now on to my preview of the fast-approaching Spurs/Sonics series. You may recall that while I grew up in San Antonio, I now live in The Emerald City (that's Seattle, people). So I am understandably conflicted. (Actually, I'm not. I just added that for drama. It's a literary technique that all serious sports journalists use. San Antonio Spurs Blog knows drama. (Buh buh!))

I have sort of been putting this off. I am confident in my "prediction," if you will, but there's a certain something I want to say that, well, will certainly drum up some comments that I'll feel forced to respond to. So I've been considering my options. Also, no matter how many Spur's advantages I point out Seattle fans can simply point to this and this.

As you may already know, Seattle beat SA in the only two games where both teams were at full strength. So what do I have to say to that? Any clever retorts?

Well, no, not really. Personally, I don't put much stock into those two games. That, of course, is easy for me to say. But both those contests were in the first twenty games of the season, and both Parker and Manu started the seasons off slowly. At that point the Spurs had nothing to prove and they often take lesser teams lightly. Plus, the playoffs are just different. Last year the Spurs lost 3 of 4 games to MEM during the regular season and swept them in the playoffs. That's just the first of numerous examples.

Seattle was missing key player/s in the other two matchups, both Spurs blowouts. Again, not much to take from those games in my opinion.

Kenny Smith loves to say "The playoffs are about matchups." I initially wanted to agree with him, but, like with most cliches, I have trouble believing it. For example, Dallas had nobody who could guard either McGrady or Yao and TMac was very successful at curtailing DAL's best player in Nowitzki. Yet HOU still lost. DEN's defense matched up with SA's offense very well; better than any other defense in the WC. Yet DEN was clearly outclassed.

Cliches are just soundbites; they try to homogenize and oversimplify and are thusly rendered nearly useless in a game with as many variables as NBA basketball.

But hey, individual matchups are fun to talk about, so maybe I'll drop the bomb later.

The Sonics, despite their first round matchup against SAC, are a half court team. In fact, they average 91.5 offensive possessions per game, 27th in the NBA. The Spurs are immediately above them with 91.7. Don't let the slow pace fool you, SEA is a great offensive team, 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions). They have three guys capable of big games in Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic. They have four guys who shoot better than 37% from 3 (the above and Luke Ridnour(?)).

SA, of course, is by far the best defensive team in the league. Teams just don't get many easy baskets against Pop's team. It's important to note that SEA, more than any team other than PHX, lives and dies by the 3. They average 8.1 makes on 22.2 attempts (36.5%) and 3s account for 24.6% of their points. This doesn't bode well for SEA because SA makes it a point to limit 3PA. In fact, SA only allowed 10.7 3PA per game (SEA averaged 14.8 attempts against SA), 18.3% less than the team second in that category. This is doubly impressive when you consider the Spurs had the second highest margin of victory (which should lead to more 3 attempts). They rotate defensively better than any other team in the NBA and they also run at shooters aggressively. Their perimeter defenders play in opponents faces, begging them to penetrate towards the paint where the Spurs were second in the league in blocked shots.

This attention to 3PA has continued into the playoffs. DEN averaged 11.5 attempts during the regular season but only put up 8.4 in round 1.

The Spurs are no slouches on offense, either. They're currently ninth in the NBA and only 0.1 points per possession below 6th. They, like SEA, have 3 guys capable of high scoring games in Timmeh, Parker and The Sickness. SA doesn't rely on one certain method of scoring; they can hit some threes (6.2 per game), they can go inside to Duncan, they can run pick and roll with Parker and Duncan or they can let Manu or Tony create off the dribble. They are more multi-dimensional than they are given credit for.

SEA, to be quite frank, is an awful defensive team. 25th in the NBA. They're 23rd in the league in blocked shots and have only guy that can be considered a vertical inside presence. That's Jerome James, who averaged 1.39 blocks in only 16.6 minutes per game.

Ahhhh, Jerome James. 4.9 PTS and 3.0 REB during the regular season and 17.2 PTS and 9.4 REB against SAC in round 1. Is he a changed man? Has he turned the corner? Will he finally realize the potential of his God given talents? You probably heard the story: Adelman cuts James years ago during the preseason, hands him a garbage bag and tells him to find another line of work. Apparently James didn't remember any of that during the regular season, when he averaged only 5 and 1.3 against SAC.

But James dug deep, feng shuid his couches and centered his Chi for the playoffs. In a sick way, I've enjoyed watching this guy the past couple of years. So I know that he has a load of offensive talent and noticed that he definitely played harder against SAC. I even caught him rotating on defense once. It was amazing! Up there with that whole Ivory-billed Woodpecker thing.

But, call me crazy, I am going to go with the 268 games of evidence that says he sucks. He played well in five games against a team who's only inside defensive presence was a one-legged Brad Miller (Skinner played less than 10 minutes a game in the series), who averaged all of 1.2 blocks in 37 minutes of play during the regular season. What happens when, sometime in the first quarter, James gets by The Solid Slovenian but then gets his shot blocked by TIMMEH!? How does he react when he quicks up two quick fouls trying to guard a post player (something he didn't have to do agaisnt SAC) like Duncan? Can McMillan even leave him in after defensively misplaying four consecutive pick and rolls? Will Jerome disappear for the rest of the game, like he did for 250 of his 268 career regular season contests? Or will he, with a determined air, adjust his trash bag cape and get back to work?

SEA lacks inside presence and lacks good perimeter defenders. Their best guard defender is probably Antonio Daniels, who, though I love as a player, cannot guard two guys at once. Which is what he would have to do when Ginobili and Parker are on the court at the same time.

Does a team that ranks 25th in the league in defense have a realistic shot at taking down a team like the Spurs? How often has a team that bad at offense or defense made it to a conference finals? Like I said when previewing the DEN series, it has taken, up to this point, a tandem the quality of Shaq and Kobe to take out a Duncan led Spurs team.

SEA fans seem to be hanging their hats on the individual matchups and the belief that Ray Allen is "hot." (He did average about a bazillion points against SAC.) Pardon my french, but give me a fucking break. Bruce Bowen is one of the top 3 perimeter defenders in the NBA and will funnel Ray into Tim and Rasho all day. Oh, he's also so far in Allen's head that he probably knows when Ray's next manicure is scheduled.

Oh, but what about Rashard? He's a good player and definitely is more of a matchup problem than Ray. And yeah, he's four inches taller than Ginobili (who, by the way, will certainly start over Brent Barry). But when you have the interior defense the Spurs have, all the perimeter defenders have to do is not allow the three. Funnel, funnel, funnel. Make him hit a running 16 footer. Make him shoot over Rasho and Timmeh. If he gets good post position double off of Reggie Evans or Jerome James. Or just simply put Bowen on him. Teams love to try to post up Bowen, which never made much sense to me. Bowen is an expert at making the entry pass near impossible. Carmelo had trouble just getting the ball, let alone doing anything with it.

I think some people are missing that Manu can guard Allen if necessary. He's another terrific perimeter defender that gets overlooked because, well, he doesn't roll enough ankles (he he he). Devin Brown, if healthy, can chase after Allen, too.

What's so baffling about all the SEA matchup talk is the fact that SEA matches up so poorly with SA. You're telling me Luke Ridnour is going to guard Tony Parker? Are you serious? The Wee Frenchmen will eat him alive, and when he does, who's going to challenge Parker's shot in the paint? DEN had Camby and Punkie and Parker still managed 18 points a game.

SEA fans love to say that they have a "lot of guys" that they can "throw at" Duncan. Congratulations. Every team says that during the playoffs. Unfortunately only one of those guys has any chance at guarding him. That's Jerome James. Who will get pick and rolled to death. Fortson's big, yeah, but he won't last 12 minutes guarding Duncan. Hell, he couldn't stay on the floor guarding the likes of Kenny Thomas and Corliss Williamson (19 fouls in 47 minutes). Reggie Evans is 6'-8" on a good day. Nick Collison is a nice player that I like a lot. But he's only 6'-9" and simply isn't strong enough (and foul prone as well). Potato might do OK. But that means Potato would have to play on the offensive end, which I don't think McMillan would allow.

Then there's The Sickness. And is Ray Allen going to guard Manu? Good luck. I have no idea how to guard him and have yet to see anyone figure it out. Oh, yeah, there's also this:

Player A
47.1 FG%
37.6 3P%
80.4 FT%
1.22 PTS per shot attempt (FGA + .44 * FTA)
4.4 RPG
3.9 APG
1.6 SPG
0.4 BPG
2.3 TOPG

Player B
42.8 FG%
37.6 3P%
88.3 FT%
1.11 PTS per shot attempt
4.4 RPG
3.7 APG
1.1 SPG
0.1 BPG
2.2 TOPG

Which one of those two players is the better offensive player? Hmm. Looks like Player A to me. Player A is of course The Sickness. Player B is Ray Allen. The thing I've been contemplating not saying is the following: Manu Ginobili is a better player than Ray Allen.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Ray has to shoot more because he's the focal point of the offense. Ray's job is to score. Ray has to take those tough three pointers. Defenses key on him. Blah blah blah. I bite my thumb at that shit. Every basketball player's job is to help the team win. And maybe if Ray was as concerned about winning as he was his next contract (or next manicure) he wouldn't take some of those horrible shots. Maybe he would notice that Radmanovic and Lewis are better 3P shooters than him. Or that Rashard Lewis is actually a better offensive player than he is. Or that he's only 3rd on the team in +/- (which is especially sad considering his backup is Flip Fucking Murray).

Ginobili, meanwhile, gets 16 points a game even though he's the third option on offense and the Spurs don't really even run plays for him (unless you consider giving him the ball 25 feet from the basket with 5 seconds on the shot clock and telling him to, uh, do something running a play for him). And he actually plays defense, too, which is a big reason why he's got a +/- of +15.5 (third in the NBA).

Yeah, Ray will get his points against the Spurs. He'll probably average 25 points on 22 shot attempts. He'll bitch about the refs and contribute little on the defensive end. But, hey, I'm sure somebody will give him his near-max contract. It might even be the Sonics, assuming they have enough money left after they overpay for Jerome James.

Spurs in 5.

Other picks:

PHX over DAL in 7
MIA over WAS in 6
DET over IND in 4

Previous picks (from "Quick Playoff Predictions" post on 23 April):

PHX in 4
SA in 5
SEA in 7
DAL in 7
MIA in 5
DET in 5
IND in 6
WAS in 6

Hmm. Got all the winners and only missed by 4 total games. What does that mean? Nothing, of course.

Stats From Round 1

2005-05-05T12:22:00.000-07:00

Note: "Total +/-" is simply point margin while on court minus point margin while off court. I don't like using the per 48 minutes numbers with such a small sample. These numbers basically show how much better (or worse) your team was with you on the court. All +/- data from 82games.com.

Tony Parker
7.2-16.4 / 43.9 FG% / 3-11 from 3 / 18.2 PPG / 5.8 APG / 0.8 SPG / 3.0 TOPG / Total +/- of +34

Andre Miller
5.6-13.2 / 42.4 FG% / 2-4 from 3 / 16.2 PPG / 5.2 APG / 2.0 SPG / 2.4 TOPG / Total +/- of +10

Manu Ginobili
6.2-13.0 / 47.7 FG% / 10-22 from 3 / 22.8 PPG / 4.0 APG / 0.4 SPG / 2.4 TOPG / Total +/- of +46

Earl Boykins
5.4-13.6 / 39.7 FG% / 0-7 from 3 / 14.2 PPG / 3.8 APG / 0.8 SPG / 1.8 TOPG / Total +/- of -46

Bruce Bowen
0.8-3.2 / 25.0 FG% / 3-7 from 3 / 3.0 PPG / 1.4 APG / 0.8 SPG / 0.0 TOPG / Total +/- of -4

Carmelo Anthony
7.0-16.6 / 42.2 FG% / 0-1 from 3 / 19.2 PPG / 2.0 APG / 0.60 SPG / 2.6 TOPG / Total +/- of -12

Tim Duncan
8.8-18.8 / 46.8% / 22.0 PPG / 11.2 RPG / 3.4 APG / 2.6 BPG / 2.4 TOPG / Total +/- of +4

Punkie
5.4-11.6 / 46.6% / 12.4 PPG / 5.6 RGP / 1.2 APG / 1.0 BPG / 1.4 TOPG / Total +/- of +2

Nazr Mohammed
2.5-4.8 / 52.6% / 7.0 PPG / 8.0 RPG / 1.3 BPG / 1.75 TOPG / Total +/- of -46

Marcus Camby
3.4-8.2 / 41.5% / 10.2 PPG / 10.4 RPG / 3.2 BPG / 2.2 TOPG / Total +/- of +12

Robert Horry
3.4-6.6 / 51.5% / 10.0 PPG / 8-18 from 3 / 4.6 RPG / 1.0 APG / 1.2 BPG / 0.6 TOPG / 0.8 SPG / Total +/- of +62

Nene
1.8-4.2 / 42.9% / 6.6 PPG / 5.0 RPG / Total +/- of -14

Brent Barry
1.8-4.2 / 42.9% / 6.4 PPG / 5-14 from 3 / 2.8 APG / 1.8 TOPG / Total +/- of -2

I Just Sent You a Picture of the Syrup

2005-05-04T22:45:00.000-07:00

SA 99 vs. DEN 89

This game was closer than the final score indicates. SA played extremely sloppily in the first half, committing 12 turnovers (many of them offensive fouls) and allowing far too many offensive rebounds. After consistently maintaining a 1-6 point lead for most of the second half they finally got over the hump on a Glenn Robinson 3 off a Timmeh offensive rebound. There were other unexpected contributions down the stretch, including solid D from Brent Barry and Nazr Mohammed hitting what Matty da Blade called "the first non-dunk of his Spurs career." I'm telling you, he's deadly from three feet and in (when he doesn't travel). Nazr grabbed 3 more offensive boards and blocked a couple of shots but continued his dreadful defense. He bit on three separate upfakes, leading to two fouls on him and one on Duncan.

Earl Boykins started instead of Greg Buckner (who was starting instead of Dermarr Johnson). I was very happy to see this because he's pretty much been awful the whole series except for game 4. His averages for the series look like this:

39.7% FG%
14.2 PPG on 13.6 FGA
3.8 APG
1.8 TOPG
0.8 SPG

Those number don't look dreadful, but they of course ignore the fact the only Spur Boykins had a prayer of guarding was Beno Udrih. Proof? The Spurs outscored DEN by a total of 51 points for the entire series. When Boykins was on the bench the Spurs only outscored DEN by 3 points. That -3 is by far and away the best number for any DEN player that saw significant minutes. (In other words, DEN's best lineup was basically any lineup without Boykins.) But, hey, he's only 5'-5" and can bench over 300 pounds!!! Pfft. And my balls float in the bathtub: so what?

Parker had another good game: 21 on 17 FGA, 7 A, 2 STL and 3 TO. The Sickness had one of those "it will seem like I am doing absolutely nothing on the offensive end but I'll still end up with 18 points" games. He also had 5 TOs. But, as Barkley said, he's "a bad man." Have I ever mentioned that I love Barkley? 'Cause I do. Also, I've had two entirely different people tell me I look like him. One of them was African American, too.

Robert Horry continued his stellar play. In fact, he was probably the most important player in the whole series. The Spurs were actually outscored by 5 points when he was on the bench. In fact, he was the only Spur that had a negative value for either on or off the bench. His amazing +/- numbers have a lot to do with the fact he was often coming in for Nazr (Spurs were only +3 with Nazr on the court).

Please pardon my lack of modesty, but I called this series pretty well:

"I'm supposed to worry about fucking Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin? When Bowen owns Carmelo and Martin got embarassed by Duncan in the 2003 NBA Finals? When the schedule favors the Spurs? When the Spurs have home court? Are you serious?

Spurs in 5."

I have to admit that Carmelo played better than I expected. He shot 42.2% and averaged 19.2 PTS but only 1.16 PPS (which is merely decent). His play down the stretch in game 4 was definitely impressive. But he does very little on the defensive end, which is why his season +/- was a meager +3.1. (But hey, the kid's only 20.)

DEN only managed 13.2 fast break points per game after leading the league during the regular season with about 20 per game.

Personally, I think this series had two themes. First, DEN was simply significantly overrated. There season closing run was largely due to a very weak schedule that contained no teams near the quality of a full strength Spurs squad. Second, the Spurs are a much better offensive team than people realize.

Finding a way to score consistently against the Spurs isn't enough. Solving the NBA's best defense isn't the only riddle. There's another question people are missing. How do you slow their offense? How do you slow Tim? Push him around (if you have someone that can), double him and pray the Spurs' bevy of three point shooters don't hit wide open shots. How do you curtail Parker? Go under the screen and roll, put a physical guy on him (if you have that guy) and pack the lane (assuming you have a shot blocker). But how do you stop The Sickness? How do you slow the slither, curtail the cunning, dampen the drive? How do you solve a problem like Manu? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?

Ay, there's the rub.

I Think I Figured It Out

2005-05-02T23:35:00.000-07:00

The refs, that is. In case you didn't see the game, Charles Barkley said "that was one of the worst officiated games I've seen in my entire life."

Some really, really bizarre calls. Bowen's first two fouls in the second (in the first minute or so; his 3rd and 4th) were absolutely horrible calls. One was an obvious charge on Carmelo. I am not even sure what the other call was. Bowen had his forearm in Melo's back, standing there and then the whistle. I thought there was a clock problem or something.

I figured it all out. The refs bet heavily on the over. That's the only logical explanation.

Anyways. I am going to sleep. Quick recap:

Tony Parker nutted up huge in the 4th and OT.
Duncan hit 13-14 FT and was generally awesome.
Boykins (I think?) hit a three (that's what it looked like in the one replay the idiots at TNT showed) that was called a two with about 2 minutes to go in the game.

I'll edit/add to this later Tuesday.

"Hold That, That's What I Want"

2005-05-01T02:04:00.000-07:00

Note: Game 3 recap is below this post

"At any street corner the feeling of absurdity can strike any man in the face." --Albert Camus

Update II: Oops. Uh. There's a whole other article that I missed while viewing online. And there is a picture of me. This development makes the previous update seem very, very sad and delusional. All the more reason to leave it!

Update: HA! The story posted online right after I finished my game 3 recap. There's one whole line about my blog. And no photo, either (thankfully). 3 hours spent e-mailing, 30 minutes on the phone and 30 excruciating minutes of posing culminated in: "A Web log that Seattle structural engineer Matthew Powell started about the San Antonio Spurs basketball team got an audience of hundreds after being included in Yahoo's search results." This development makes the following post seem very, very sad and delusional. All the more reason to leave it!

The front page of the Sunday edition of the Seattle Times has the first part of a multiday feature concerning search engines and the way people in the Northwest use them. Kim Peterson, the author of the story, found this blog, asked me some questions and subsequently included me in the article; along with CEOs and other people who, in the Grand Scheme of Things, are almost certainly more important than me (and definitely more relevant to the subject matter). No, I cannot come up with a rational answer as to why I am in the story; other than my inclusion is no less absurd than the fact that more people are concerned with this than this.

Being Saturday and all, I haven't read the story. There may be only two lines about me all I know, but I am certain my picture will be in the paper. Well, unless the photographer I spent thirty minutes with yesterday works for another of the multitudes of media outlets clamoring to get my story. The highlight of that experience had to be when he said, after snapping about 30 photos of me posing, "Hold that, that's what I want." My brain immediately translated that to "Right now you look like an idiot, but I looking for more of a tool look. Focus on the fact that not only are you a number-crunching dweeb, but you're supreme accomplishment in life is a sports blog." I am pretty sure I nailed it.

Presumably (and, let's face it, the whole idea behind a blog is presumptuous), as a result of all this, some new people will be visiting my blog. I cannot think of a reason why; after all, this is a San Antonio Spurs blog, and I doubt many Seattle Times readers wake up Sunday mornings thinking "I need to spend some reading a guy prattle on incessantly about a sports team based 2000 miles away." But, as you probably know, the Second Rule of Life is "Things do not have to make sense (so stop trying to figure people out)."

I trudged through all of my past posts and picked out the least crappy entries. Due to my scant HTML knowledge you are going to have to scroll through the linked archives to find the selected posts. Here they are, starting from the beginning.

"You Just Don't" - The culmination of years and years of hating Karl Malone.
"1351 Words on Rasho Nesterovic" - He's tall. He's Slovenian. He's misunderstood.
"Rick Adelman Is An Excellent Driver" - I knew Chris Webber sucked way before Philly fans figured it out.
"This NEEDS to Be Said" - The post that, according to a random Spurs fan, "discredited me as a Spurs fan and a journalist."
"More Thoughts on the Malik Rose Trade" - a methodology for the typical unification of access points and redundancy
"Look, You Stupid Bastard, You've Got No Arms Left" - How to guard Tony Parker (begins in the 15th paragraph).
"Chad Ford Molests Baby Kangaroos" - Self explanatory.
""Uhhhh, I Mean..." - Me on the (internet) radio.
"The Sky is Still Blue, Right?" - My opinion on SA's first playoff series.
"Back to Work" - More absurdity: playoff induced stress (two posts below this one).

***

The following is an excerpt/summary of my response to Kim's initial questions regarding Google Ads:

"A partial reason I added Google Ads was curiosity. How did Google calculate the amountof money "earned?" How many people would actually click on these ads? I harbored no delusions that the ads would ever make me more than a few dollars a year. The ads are just another piece of the process; like visitors, something to track. An accoutrement to my "harmless eccentricity," if you will.

When they were first added I wrote a sarcastic blog entry stating I was selling out; that I would do my best to use my readers for financial gain; that this was my only reason for starting the blog in the first place. I also promised that I would keep my readers up to date with how much I've taken them for. That's funny to me.

See, I enjoy the absurdity of the whole notion. In some very minor way, the "revenue" from the ads is justification for me spending unjustifiable amounts of time blathering on. Having the amount clearly shown (right below the ads themselves) is a way of poking fun at myself and the idea that my blog is worthwhile. I've "earned" three whole dollars and forty-seven cents, which is about what I make in about 10 minutes at my real job."

***

Lastly, if you happen to be a Sonics fan I suggest reading supersonicsoul.com.

The Sickness Strikes

2005-04-30T23:52:00.000-07:00

SA 86 @ DEN 78

Here's an excerpt from George Karl's postgame news conference:

"It was just a tough refereed game, man, and I hate complaining about refereeing, but on our home court we got so many tough calls... BS calls... I mean, the charge Danny Crawford called on Andre Miller was incredibly bad. And it just seems... Carmelo gets killed. They walk underneath him every time he touches the ball. Earl's geting bumped, but because he's so small he doesn't get the respect. Ginobili gets the same bump and he goes to the free throw line... and we did not lose the game because of the free throw line, and the fouling, but I just don't think we got a very good whistle, and I was really disappointed in some of the calls."

So. Let me get this straight. You shoot two more free throws than the Spurs (even though you had 10 less FGA). Duncan plays only 5 minutes in the first half largely due to a horrible loose ball foul and shoots a total of two free throws in the entire game. And you're complaining about the refs? Are you KIDDING me? Is Carmelo supposed to get more respect from the refs than Duncan?

If I was Karl I would be more worried about the fact that DEN shot a higher percentage than the Spurs, DEN got 20 fast break points and Tony and Tim shot a combined 8-31 and you still lost by 8 at home.

Duncan got his first foul about 50 seconds in the game. Nazr bit on a Camby upfake and Duncan was forced to challenge him at the rim. I've said it before: Nazr is not a good team defender. He can match up pretty well one on one against a pure post guy, but he's awful outside of the paint, especially on the pick and roll. It was really good to see Rasho get 17 minutes tonight. He's the Solid Slovenian.

Duncan got his second foul early in the first quarter when Tony Parker gave him the ball about ten feet from the basket on a fast break. He couldn't/didn't stop in time and got called for an obvious charge.

Luckily the Spurs have Manu. He was pretty much unstoppable in the first half. Driving, hitting threes, feeding Udrih on consecutive back doors. Despite Duncan's absence, the Spurs went into half time with a 9 point lead.

The second half was largely a struggle offensively for both teams. Duncan was 0-8 in the third quarter, missing many easy looks. Timmeh was obviously phenomenal in game 2, but he's been dreadful in the two other contests. He wasn't even getting double-teamed by DEN. There's no way he should go 5-19 against single coverage.

The game was tight well into the fourth quarter, when up stepped Big Shot Rob. With the Spurs clinging to a 4 point lead with 6 minutes to go, Rob stole a horrible pass from Camby in the back court. He calmly dribbled out to the three point line and drained a wide open three. I couldn't believe he even took the shot. He hit another 3 the next possession to give the Spurs a 10 point lead.

Duncan continued to struggle in the fourth, so Pop put the offense in the hands of Manu, and he responded with 10 points including a huge 3 that increased the Spurs lead back to 7 with 2 minutes to go.

With 38 seconds to go Andre Miller missed a three that would have cut the lead to 2. DEN had trouble catching The Sickness and he ended taking the ball right to the basket where Carmelo sorta, well, punched him in the face. I don't think 'Melo intentionally hit him in the beak, but he definitely wasn't going for the ball. Dennie Crawford gave him a flagrant foul 2 and tossed him out of the game.

Manu, after the game, said he didn't think it was a dirty foul. He also didn't think Carmelo would get suspended, and I agree with him. I'm sure the league will look at it, though.

Melo again had trouble all night with Bowen. He shot 7-17 and had 19 points.

Another thing I didn't (and still don't) understand about all this talk about DEN beating SA... the Spurs have the best two players on the court. Do people seriously believe that Carmelo is a better player than Ginobili? C'mon.

Manu is third in the league in PPS behind only Amare and Shaq. He can penetrate with either hand. He can finish with either hand. He can shoot the three. He can pull up. He can shoot the off-balance leaner. He shoots a high percentage from 3, 2 and the FT line. He's a plus defender. He's 10th in the league in steals per 48 minutes. He can keep you out of the lane. He's relentless. He has a knack for coming up with big offensive rebounds. He's fearless.

And what I love most about the guy is that he wants it more than everybody else. Here's a skinny Argentinian guy who comes into the league and wins a championship his first year. He then proceeds to lead his country to an Olympic gold medal while the Americans don't even make it to the final game. And now he's schooling these American kids at their own damn game. He out talents them, out hustles them, out hearts them.

Shouldn't the court be Kenyon's turf? For a 100 million dollars shouldn't you be "holding it down?" Shouldn't Carmelo be "representin' the streets of Baltimore?" Isn't it sad that you're reduced to roughing the guy up when the outcome's already been decided? It's supposed to be about winning, right? Or is it about put back dunks? Or maybe pulling your jersey to show your heart? Getting a signature shoe? Selling the most jerseys? Fat endorsement deals?

Lastly, the O/U for this game was 194. The teams have played 6 times this year and never scored more than 189 points. Talk about easy money.

Back to Work

2005-04-27T22:34:00.000-07:00

San Antonio 104 vs. Denver 76

Maybe now I can concentrate. A Spurs playoff run is my version of horrible allergies. I have trouble sleeping. It's difficult to concentrate at work. I physically do not feel well. Basically, I am a wreck.

Starting this blog has just made things worse. Writing about the team and watching just about all of their games has made me much more emotionally invested in what's going on. After the Spurs lost game 1 I felt like I had to make a statement; like I had to take some responsibility for the outcome.

And that's what makes being a loyal sports fan so hard: you have no control over anything. I so badly wanted to grab Tim Duncan and scream "FOR FUCK'S SAKE BE AGGRESSIVE ON THE OFFENSIVE END. FOR ONCE IN YOUR CAREER PLAY ANGRY. DENVER HAS NO RIGHT TO BEAT YOU AT HOME." But instead your limited to disbelief and frustration.

The Guamish called me yesterday and said "You're not worried, are you?" I didn't know what to say. My opinion of the matchup hadn't changed but a loss is a loss; circumstances can only mitigate, they cannot change the outcome. But after going down 0-1 I was forced to contemplate going down 0-2. What if Duncan plays horribly again? What if Parker shows his age again? What if Nestie still cannot play and Nazr keeps botching the pick and roll? What if DEN gets hot from three? OH MY GOD... what if the Spurs lose in the first round of the playoffs??? What then? What's the point in writing about the NBA when you're so wrong about something? What would I even say? Do I go ahead and pin the blame on The Blameless? Do I point out the obvious? Do I cross that line?

These are the things that drifted through my head for 72 hours.

You may think I'm strutting here. I do not mean to. The Spurs still lost home court. My prediction of Spurs in 5 is obviously unlikely at this point. But, and I'm repeating myself here, the Nuggets are having all sorts of trouble scoring against the Spurs. The Nuggets had 2 fast break points. The Spurs had 18. Carmelo had 10 points on 14 FGA. There is no particular player that presents a serious matchup problem for the Spurs. Miller is a minor problem that can be mostly contained by better pick and roll defense. Camby and Martin pretty much settle for jumpers.

The Spurs appear to be getting healthy. Duncan certainly played better, though who knows how much can be attributed to ankle improvement. Rasho, who was doubtful, played 14 minutes and was his normal solid self. Devin Brown, who was "out" last time I checked, got in 6 minutes. Timmeh only had to play 28 minutes.

However, The Sickness did turn his ankle slightly at the end of the first half. He played in the second half and looked a litte gimpy to me. He only played 18 minutes total.

The big news coming out of tonight's game, other than the final score, was Brent Barry starting in place of Manu. Pop said something to the effect of "manufacturing a bench." Theoretically Brent Barry will get more open looks playing with Tim and Tony and apparently he loses confidence pretty easily.

I really have no problems with this move because:

A) I presume Pop understands who his second best player is.
B) I further presume that Pop made it very clear that this move was in no way a demotion and that his second best player would still get his usual minutes and still finish games.
C) Barry starting allows him to defend DerMarr Johnson who isn't much of an offensive threat.
D) It makes it easier to keep either Sickness or Tim need to be on the court at ALL times. This is a must.
E) If the Spurs start lethargically they can now put in Mr. Instant Energy.

Another thing: Duncan was much more aggressive tonight. The first couple times he touched the ball he immediately made a decisive move. He was obviously very keyed up for this game. It's such a joy to see him play with that fire under his ass.

Parker also played about a bazillion times better tonight. Aggression. Humans are such strange creatures; they'll be one person one night and an entirely different person the next.

"Play with anger." That should be the Spurs playoff motto. Having a chip on your shoulder isn't necessarily a bad thing.

*********

Real quick like: the title for my previous entry was intended to refer to something that the Sports Guy wrote the other day:

"Denver-San Antonio: As predicted, the Spurs are in BIG trouble here – Duncan clearly isn't 100 percent and the Nuggets looked like they absolutely believed they could and should win the series. I went from thinking "The Spurs will squeeze out a tough win in seven games" to thinking "I would be surprised if the Spurs won the series" within two hours. By the way, is it too early to think about Eva Longoria (Tony Parker's new babe) joining the Mia Hamm Hall of Fame for high-profile girlfriends who could potentially kill the careers of their mates?"

He then immediately writes the following:

"Chicago-Washington: The Bulls needed an epic 48-minute, 25/18 performance from Andres Nocioni; an Andrew Toney Game from Ben Gordon; a complete meltdown from Gilbert Arenas (3 for 19); AND the second-worst coaching performance of the weekend (from Eddie Jordan) just to sneak out Game 1... The biggest surprise was the Bulls' playing up-tempo, which seemed like it should have played right into Washington's hands ... except for the fact that there have been guys arrested for point shaving who were more effective than Arenas was in Game 1. Once he gets going, the Wizards will be fine in this series."

Couldn't he have written something very similar about game one of the Spurs series? Replace "Andres Nocioni" with "Andre Miller" and "Gilbert Arenas" with "Tony Parker and Tim Duncan." Performances are always up to interpretation, but this seemed pretty obvious to me. It will be interesting to see what he says about game 2.

Speaking of my favorite sportswriter, he wrote a little something about Reggie Miller. He took the words right out of my mouth.

"A Man Hears What He Wants to Hear and Disregards the Rest"

2005-04-27T16:31:00.000-07:00

I hate deadlines. In college, deadlines weren't a problem even though I constantly procrastinated. (Actually, "procrastination" isn't strong enough a word.) I always planned on studying "X" amount for an exam, but I cannot remember ever meeting that goal. But once the test was over it didn't matter; the deadline had passed, along with any and all responsibility and stress that comes with it.

Unfortunately, the "real world" is different. You actually have to get stuff done. I cannot simply submit half a design, which is why I worked 14 hours yesterday.

What does any of this have to do with the Spurs? From your perspective? Nothing, really. But this here blog ain't 'bout you, now, is it?

I GOT THE CONCH.

Anyways, the combined stress due to the deadline and the Spurs losing game 1 nearly did me in. I'm talking a "under my desk in the fetal position" type breakdown. Even if I had anything much to say about game 1, I certainly didn't have the time to say it. Well, now the deadline has been inched back a couple of days, so I'll post a couple of entirely pointless (given that game 2 starts in 20 minutes) thoughts.

-What I found really frustrating is that I semi-accurately predicted the DEN offense vs. SA defense matchup. I didn't think the Nuggets would be able to run much and I pointed out Carmelo's past poor performances. Well, DEN had 12 fastbreak points, about 8 below their season average and actually one point less than the Spurs had, and 'Melo had 14 points on 14 FGA. Miller had a good game, largely due to horrible pick and roll defense by the Spurs. Speaking of:

-The Spurs miss Rasho. People look at Nazr's stat line and think he had a great game. I'm not claiming that he didn't do some nice things, but the fact is the Spurs were outscored by about ~14 points while he was on the floor. A lot of that has to do with the fact Nazr is often not in the right place on defense. As I mentioned in a comment, Rasho was third on the Spurs in +/-, behind only Duncan and The Sickness. You cannot explain that away entirely. Even if you look solely at the times Rasho was on the floor without Timmeh, the Spurs were still +3.5 per 48 minutes. That's good. (It should be noted that Rasho had a -4.0 +/- last year and was last on the team during the playoffs.)

-Yeah, Tim ain't a 100%. But I'm tired of hearing about him not being able to "explode." Whatever. I think people are confusing Tim with Amare Stoudemire. Duncan is not an explosive player. He never has been. He got pushed around just like he did last year against the Lakers. That's the story. Not his ankle.

SA 87 vs. DEN 93

2005-04-24T20:13:00.000-07:00

Fourth Quarter:

12:00 Start of period
11:23 SA Manu Ginobili made Layup, Assist Tim Duncan
11:04 SA Beno Udrih made Layup, Assist Manu Ginobili
10:16 SA Glenn Robinson made Jump Shot
9:44 SA Tim Duncan missed Jump Shot
9:15 SA Tim Duncan missed Layup
8:39 SA Manu Ginobili missed 3-pt. Jump Shot
7:51 SA Beno Udrih missed 3-pt. Jump Shot
7:20 SA Glenn Robinson missed Jump Shot
7:08 SA Offensive foul on Glenn Robinson
6:19 SA Glenn Robinson missed 3-pt. Jump Shot
5:49 SA Robert Horry missed Hook Shot
4:55 SA Manu Ginobili missed 3-pt. Jump Shot
4:21 SA Manu Ginobili missed 1st of 2 Free Throws
4:21 SA Manu Ginobili made 2nd of 2 Free Throws
3:34 SA Tim Duncan missed Turnaround Jump Shot
3:18 SA Tim Duncan missed Layup
3:13 SA Nazr Mohammed missed 1st of 2 Free Throws
3:13 SA Nazr Mohammed made 2nd of 2 Free Throws
2:35 SA Manu Ginobili missed Jump Shot
2:16 SA Bruce Bowen missed 1st of 2 Free Throws
2:16 SA Bruce Bowen made 2nd of 2 Free Throws
1:44 SA Tony Parker missed Jump Shot
1:35 SA Tony Parker missed Floating Jump Shot
1:09 SA Lost ball turnover on Manu Ginobili, Stolen by Greg Buckner
42.0 SA Tim Duncan missed Turnaround Jump Shot
31.0 SA Tim Duncan missed Turnaround Jump Shot
19.0 SA Tim Duncan missed Jump Shot
12.0 SA Robert Horry made 3-pt. Jump Shot, Assist Beno Udrih

Tim Duncan: 0-7
Manu: 1-4
Tony Parker: 0-2

The Sky is Still Blue, Right?

2005-04-23T16:57:00.000-07:00

This DEN hype does not surprise me. After all, I've learned that the First Rule of Life is "People are stupid." (There may be other Rules, but I've yet to discover them.) But I cannot say I understand why people are so enamored with DEN. The one possible angle that is remotely justifiable is: "Duncan's injury is much worse than he's letting on and he won't be able to effectively play more than 20 minutes a game." Otherwise, well, I'm confused and befuddled.

Let's take a look at some key points.

First of all, the streak. DEN finished the season on a 25-4 run. Those numbers, 25 and 4, are impressive. However, and I've said this many times, their strength of schedule over that time was extremely weak. The winning percentage of the teams they beat was 45.3%. When you extract the SEA game (Lewis and Radmanovic didn't play) and the two SA games (Duncan missed both and Ginobili missed one), the winning percentage drops to 40.5%. The team with a WP% closest to 40.5? TOR and NY. Just for reference.

DEN's best wins during the streak? SACTO (without Miller) or WAS (without Jamison) at home and MEM on the road. They didn't even play: DAL, MIA, DET, CHI. They didn't play a full strength SEA, SACTO, or SA. They played PHX three times and lost all three by an average of 9.33 points. They played HOU once (without Camby) and lost by 28.

Beating bad and/or average teams is important; during the regular season they count the same as beating good teams. But. Um. You don't play crappy teams in the playoffs. At least not in the WC.

A little more about streaks. Last year there was a team that had a similar streak. They went 24-7 over a stretch, including wins over LAL, SACTO, DAL, @SA, SA, DEN, DEN and @MINN. Wow. That's impressive. I don't want to face that team in the playoffs.

Wait for it.

Wait for it.

That team was MEM. Which got swept by SA, losing by an average of 14 points.

Another team went 17-0, including 6 wins in the playoffs! Holy crap! That's gotta be DET, right? Man, that team ruled.

Nope.

Wait for it.

That was SA, who lost 4 straight to the LAL by an average of 11.25 points.

Oh. One last thing. DAL finished the season on a 19-3 streak. They promptly lost their first playoff game to HOU.

That's enough about streaks. Let's move on to home court advantage.

The last time I checked, the Spurs have home court. SA has lost a total of 3 times this year in the SBC Center; to SEA, MEM and DEN. "A ha" sayeth the Nuggets fan. DEN has proven they can win at the SBC Center! Actually, no, sorry. Once again those pesky circumstances rear their ugly heads.

You see, Duncan, with his +/- of +16.6 was out. Ginobili, with his +/- of +15.5, was also out. DEN won by 3 points. The Spurs were up by 7 with 3 minutes to go and gave it away. DEN proved exactly diddly.

Let's look at the schedule.

Three days off. Game 1. Two days off. Game 2. Two more days off. Game 3. One day off. Game 4. One day off... You get the picture. No back to backs. Plenty of rest for Ginobili, Parker and the big mens' ankles.

Let's talk about how the teams matchup.

DEN loves to run. They actually lead the league in fast break points. How do you combat the fast break? First, you don't turn the ball over. The Spurs are 6th in the league in fewest turnovers committed. Second, you play disciplined defense and have players willing to bust their ass to get back. Hmm. The Spurs play the most disciplined defense in the league.

DEN's first option on offense is Carmelo Anthony. He takes about 5 more shots then their second option, Punkie. Here's the thing. Bruce Bowen owns 'Melo. Carmelo has a career 31.8% shooting percentage against the Spurs. He's 20-66 this year and he was 22-66 last year.

A review. DEN loves to run, which is very hard to do against the Spurs. DEN's first option on offense consistently struggles mightily against the Spurs.

Everyone's talking about the Spurs injuries, but DEN has it's own. Najera is probably out the first two games with a broken hand. Though no one seems to be talking about it, Camby isn't 100% either. He was held out of the last 3-4 games of the season with a hamstring problem. And this wasn't simply resting him, either. They put him on the IL right before a huge game with the Rockets; a game that basically sealed the Nuggets fate as a 7 seed.

Everyone seems to be talking about the Nuggets. Uh, do people realize they're playing the Spurs? A team that went 59-23 despite not having it's best player for 16 games? A team that last year narrowly lost to the WC Champion Lakers? They do realize that this year's team is better, right? Let's look at the differences in the rosters.

2004
Turkoglu
Kevin Willis
Malik Rose
Charlie Ward
Jason Hart

2005
Barry
Massenburg
Mohammed
Udrih
Glenn Robinson

That's a dramatic improvement. Not to mention that Parker and Ginobili are much better players this year.

I'm not sure people realize how good this team really is. Knickerblogger.net keeps track of team efficiencies. Basically, offense and defense are broken down into how many points you score/allow per possession. The PHX and DEN type teams are going to allow more points simply because they play faster than teams like SA. These stats are more meaningful than the typical points per game stats.

Not surprisingly, the Spurs are the best defensive team. DEN is eighth, which is admittedly higher than I expected. But, of course, DEN has a better offense. Oh. Wait. They don't. There's those pesky facts again. The Spurs have the 6th best offense in the league. DEN is 13th. The Heat and the Mavericks are the only other two teams in the top 10 in both categories.

Here's another thing to think about. Let's look at how Duncan led Spurs teams have done in the playoffs:

97-98 -- Lost in WC semis to UTA (who lost to CHI in the Finals)
98-99 -- World Champs
99-00 -- Duncan doesn't play in playoffs due to injury
00-01 -- Lost in WC finals to LAL (eventual World Champs)
01-02 -- Lost in WC semis to LAL (eventual World Champs)
02-03 -- World Champs
03-04 -- Lost in WC semis to LAL (who lost to DET in the Finals)

Take a closer look at that. Think about the teams that eliminated Duncan's Spurs. All of those teams had either Malone and Stockton (Duncan's rookie year) or Kobe and Shaq. No other team even took the Spurs to a decisive seventh game. Let that sink in. Kobe and Shaq. Winners of 3 consecutive titles. The duo that took a ridiculously bad supporting cast to the finals.

And I'm supposed to worry about fucking Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin? When Bowen owns Carmelo and Martin got embarassed by Duncan in the 2003 NBA Finals? When the schedule favors the Spurs? When the Spurs have home court? Are you serious?

Spurs in 5.

Quick Playoff Predictions

2005-04-23T13:54:00.000-07:00

I'll post my in-depth review of the Spurs/Nuggets series late tonight. Check-in tomorrow morning.

PHX vs. MEM -- PHX in 4
And just who the hell is Pau Gasol supposed to guard (and you cannot go zone against the Suns)?

SA vs. DEN -- SA in 5

SEA vs. SACTO -- SEA in 7
I am morally obligated to root for a SA vs. SEA matchup in round 2 (I live in SEA).

DAL vs. HOU -- DAL in 7
Best series of the first round by far. Home court takes it.

MIA vs. NJ -- MIA in 5
Jason Collins will probably average 12 and 6 this series. As in 6 fouls in 12 minutes per game.

DET vs. PHI -- DET in 5
So who will be first to leak the Chris Webber trade rumors? Chris' people of the 76ers' people? Maybe someone in AI's posse. If PHI was smart, they would contact Isaiaiaiaiah now before he meets with Phil Jackson. Phil may be the most overrated coach in the history of team sports, but he's no fool.

BOS vs. IND -- IND in 6
Antoine Walker's +/- with the Celtics: -0.4.

CHI vs. WAS -- WAS in 6
The Deng loss is more important to CHI than Curry's ailment. Best wishes to Eddy and his family.

Spurs Playoff Roster Finalized

2005-04-21T15:39:00.000-07:00

Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Bruce Bowen
Tim Duncan
Rasho Nesterovic

Beno Udrih
Brent Barry
Devin Brown
Glenn Robinson
Robert Horry
Tony Massenburg
Nazr Mohammed

That's exactly what I wanted to see. In related news, George Karl said it's unlikely Najera will play in the first two games of the series.

Uhhhhh, I Mean...

2005-04-21T12:07:00.000-07:00

Update: They've added a link directly to my portion of the show.

The good folks at AOL's SportsBloggersLive, specifically Jamie Mottram, invited me onto their internet radio show to preview a couple of the upcoming WC playoff series (including SA/DEN, of course). From what I understand, they usually do a one hour live show on Monday nights that is hosted on-demand for the rest of the week. Most of their guests are sports bloggers like myself. Today they did a special one hour show to preview the NBA playoffs. It was not broadcast live but it will be available on-demand until Monday night.

I had a great time, and the best part is that I don't think I sounded like a total idiot.

The on-demand show is here. You can here spout off from 16:17 to 21:00, but I recommend listening to the whole show. Paul over at supersonicsoul.com comes on right after me. Corey, owner of a Pistons blog, and the "Sportz Assassin" break down the EC.

Note: You'll hear me say "I'll be shocked if it goes more than 6 games." My actual pick is Spurs in 5. FWIW.

Chad Ford Molests Baby Kangaroos

2005-04-20T12:11:00.000-07:00

I do not regularly read any specific "sports writers." From my vantage point they seem to say all the same things over and over again. "Chemistry" this and "momentum" that. "Clutch" this and "professional hitter" that. (Tony Gwynn recently called Wade Boggs "a hitter's hitter." This is what ESPN.com calls "content.") If I want to hear the cliche garbage I'll simply watch the games and listen to the announcers.

Another reason I try to avoid the typical "sports writer" column is that I almost inevitably get pissed off. Blatant inadequacy in one's job drives me crazy. I cannot simply think "this guy doesn't know what he's talking about" and let it go.

Chad Ford writes about the NBA for ESPN.com. I read his column pretty often. This, of course, blatantly contradicts what I began this post with. I should have said "I do not regularly intentionally read any specific "sports writers."" The links to Chad's columns just happen to be on the NBA page of ESPN.com. They could link to a 4 year old writing about brussel sprouts and I would probably accidentally read it.

I have read many a negative comment about him in various, unrememberable locations on the internet. I don't recall the details. To me, Chad Ford is simply the "international prospect guy." That's all I can remember him ever writing about. Until today, that is.

Here's an excerpt from today's column regarding the DEN/SA series:

"(2) Spurs vs. (7) Nuggets This could be the best series in the playoffs this year. Based on what they've done since the All-Star break, this could be the equivalent of a Western Conference finals preview. Since George Karl took over in Denver, the Nuggets easily have bested the the Spurs both at home and in San Antonio. I still feel that the Spurs are the best team in the league and will find a way to get past the Nuggets. They have more experience, the best player on the floor and home-court advantage. But this one will go down to the wire. Insider prediction: Spurs in 7"

I have no problems with his prediction; that's largely subjective, and I'll save my opinions for the series preview I'll be posting Saturdayish. Here's what I have a problem with: "Since George Karl took over in Denver, the Nuggets easily have bested the the Spurs both at home and in San Antonio." Now, unlike Chad, I actually watched those two games, so I know that DEN didn't "easily" beat the Spurs in SA. However, just looking at the box score would have been enough. The Nuggets won by THREE POINTS. THREE POINTS. The Spurs led at half time and after three quarters. The Spurs led by 7 with 3 minutes to go and gave the game away down the stretch. How the hell did he come to his spurious conclusion? Wait, there's MORE!

If you order now, you'll get more total bullshit absolutely FREE from Chad Ford! For some reason he neglects to mention that Duncan didn't play in either game and that Ginobili also didn't play in one of them. Isn't that important information, especially if you're going to use the phrase "easily bested?"

People might say that the errors and omissions I pointed out are "small." But isn't getting the facts straight the first job of a journalist? Shouldn't Chad have spent the three minutes necessary to look at the two box scores? If that's not his job then what is?

I mean, shit, if some random guy comes in off the street and finds an error in one of my structural designs I would get canned. Yet, for some reason (that reason probably being the general stupidity of the average sports fan), "sports writers" can fill their columns with total bullshit (whether it be the cliched version of bullshit or the non-factual, unfoundable form of bullshit) and get away with it.

Najera, TP Shoes and Calvin Booth

2005-04-19T22:58:00.000-07:00

Note: Update in italics.

Eduardo Najera, hustler extraodinaire and nemesis to Tim Duncan, has a broken bone in his right (shooting) hand. He is supposed to have his cast removed today, but his status for the first round series is questionable. His absence would be huge for the Spurs. I recently rewatched Game 6 of the SA/DAL series of 2003 (the "Steve Kerr game") and the announcers mentioned how well Najera had played Duncan the entire series, including holding Tim to 3 points on only 2 shot attempts in the fourth quarter of Game 5 (the Spurs had a 19 point lead in the first half and imploded).

Game 1 is scheduled for Sunday, 7 p.m. CT on TNT.

I found this (link down) while browsing through Niketalk.com. It's apparently a Tony Parker signature shoe. Or, at least a Tony Parker colorway for a shoe not yet released. It looks quite similar to the 2005 Nike Huarache which is what The Wee Frenchman currently wears. But, I've screwed this stuff up before. Maybe it will be a France/Europe only release. According to some random bloke on niketalk.com the shoes in question are "air double figure tp 311908-001" and have a release date of 20 Sept 05.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that The Guamanian has taken up NBA blogging himself (and doing it quite well I might add, too). He's dropping knowledge over at supersonicsoul.com under the moniker "booth52."

Let's Get On With It

2005-04-18T22:33:00.000-07:00

The Western Conference playoff seedings are now official. Here are the first round matchups with the team listed first having home court:

PHX vs. MEM
SA vs. DEN
SEA vs. SACTO
DAL vs. HOU

PHX has home court through out the playoffs, which start Saturday.

Recently Coach Popovich alluded that Beno Udrih might not make the playoff roster. The day after the regular season closes NBA teams are required to select 12 players to for their playoff roster. They are not allowed to add players during the playoffs for any reason. The Spurs have the following players to choose from:

Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Bruce Bowen
Tim Duncan
Rasho Nesterovic

Beno Udrih
Mike Wilks
Brent Barry
Devin Brown
Glenn Robinson
Linton Johnson III
Robert Horry
Tony Massenburg
Sean Marks
Nazr Mohammed

Both of the Spurs starting big men are nursing ankle injuries, leading Pop and his staff to consider adding another big to the playoff roster. In theory that's not a bad idea. But, as with many theories, once you try applying it to real life it blows up in your face. And the detonator for that explosion is Sean Marks.

You figure that Barry, Horry, Mohammed, and Massenburg are locks for the playoff roster. That leaves three spots for Udrih, Wilks, Brown, Robinson, LJ III and Marks. Marks is the only guy that qualifies as a "big man" in that group.

The problem here is that Sean Marks sucks. People like to say he's a good shooter, but I haven't seen it. The numbers cannot find his good shooting, either: 33% FG% from the field, 25% EFG% on jump shots. For the sake of comparison I would like to submit to the court of public opinion the fact that Rasho has a 34.4% EFG% on jump shots. The last time I checked no one is calling Raaaaaaaaasho a good shooter. Marks isn't a good rebounder, either. He grabs 9.3 per 40 minutes. That's just above Massenburg and a full rebound below Nestie (as The Wife likes to call him).

Marks is good at two things: running the floor and hustling. But those two qualities don't translate to much on the scoreboard. He's not quick enough to guard Amare, Nowitzki or Punkie. He's not strong enough to have a prayer against Yao or Shaq. So why the hell put him on the roster? If something happens to warrant needing Marks for significant playing time we are fucked anyway. It's like having nuclear bomb insurance.

Personally, I just think Pop is trying to motivate Beno. You don't leave a guy with a 40.5 3P% off your playoff roster. Especially when he's a point guard. Teams will think twice about doubling/collapsing on Duncan if you put Beno, Ginobili, Bowen and Horry out there with him. The lowest 3P% among them is Ginobili with 37.7%.

Some of you may be thinking "Barry can play point." Yeah, I thought he could, too. But if he can, why hasn't he? Pop tried him there for a couple of games right after the All Star Game but it certainly didn't last long. Beno certainly isn't a plus defender, but Barry's got no shot staying in front of a PG. The only other option is Mike Wilks. Yeah, he's cute and all, but let's be serious here.

Glenn Robinson should make it on the roster, too. He shot 9-11 tonight for 23 points. That puts him at 44% for the season. He's getting his shots within the offense and doing his best of defense; definitely acclimating faster than Nazr did. He's also average a FT every 7.7 minutes, which is better than Tony Parker. Hell, if Big Dog doesn't make the roster then what exactly would he have had to do? Average 15 a night on 52% shooting? Grow wings? Cure Pop's bad hair cut?

That leaves one spot. LJ III has been legitimately hurt most of the season and only played about 10 minutes. He's out. Wilks and Marks are out. That leaves Devin Brown. The way I see it, if there's anyway he's healthy by the WCF you should put him on the roster. We might need him against PHX, and our other options aren't very palatable.

So, here's my selections:

Parker
The Sickness
Bowen
Duncan
Nestie
Udrih
Barry
Brown
Glenn Robinson
Horry
Massenburg
Mohammed

Let's do this thing.

Playoff Positioning, East vs. West & Lebron Has Chest Hair

2005-04-17T22:42:00.000-07:00

The Spurs have poo-pooed the number 1 seed all season. I don't think they need it to get past Phoenix, but being the 2 seed means playing HOU/SACTO/DEN, all quality teams that would threaten for a conference title if they were in the East. The number 1 seed gets MEM, a team a notch below all other Western Conference playoff teams.

The Eastern Conference, on the other hand, only goes two teams deep. It's Miami or Detroit. As of now, Miami gets New Jersey in the first round. NJ is playing well, but Carter and Kidd aren't enough to get past Wade and Shaq. In the second round they'll play either WASH or CHI. These are decent teams, but they pale in comparison to their WC counterparts, DAL and HOU.

The disparity between the conferences is sad and mars the playoffs. MIA and DET effectively (especially in comparison) have byes in the first round and near byes in the second. That alone dramatically increases their chances of winning the title. I don't mean to complain; it's certainly not something the NBA can do anything about. Seeding 16 teams based on record still wouldn't be "fair" due to the unbalanced schedule.

I'm bored. Let's take each Eastern Conference team and figure out their hypothetical record as a Western Conference team. Here's the math.

MIA is 57-23, 39-11 (78%) in conference and 18-12 (60%) out. You can flip them into the WC via the following:

[0.60 * 52 + 0.78 * 30] / 82 = 67.0% WCWP%

So here's the integrated standings of the playoff teams:

PHX 76.3%
SA 73.8%
DAL 70.0%
MIA 67.0%
DET 65.2%
SEA 65.0%
HOU 61.3%
SACTO 61.3%
DEN 60.0%
WAS 56.4%
MEM 55.0%
CHI 54.7%
BOS 53.9%
MINN 52.5%
IND 52.3%
NJ 45.0%
LAC 45.0%
PHI 44.5%

The discrepancy is huge. The worst WC playoff team is better than the lowest 5 EC playoff teams. This is what I mean about the top two EC teams effectively having a bye. MIA and DET are both playing a team as good as the Clippers. Where do I sign up?

The average sports fan, along with the vast majority of the media, ignore strength of schedule. Let's take a closer look at Denver's recent streak in which they went 24-3. The average winning percentage of teams they beat was 44.55%. Now, if you remove the two games against SA (Duncan out) and the game against SEA (Radmanovic and Lewis out) the average goes down to 40.8%. Don't get me wrong, going 24-3 is impressive no matter the teams played, but the level of competition definitely dulls the shine on George Karl's head.

Oh. And Lebron James joins Nick Collison in the chest hair club. I'm sure there are others. Please feel free to add them via a comment. Somebody needs to keep track of this stuff.

*******

Note: I am going to update this post daily instead of creating a new post.

After losing today to SEA, MINN is finally officially out of the playoff race.

Current (as of Sunday morning) Western Conference Standings:

1. Phoenix 61-19 -
2. San Antonio 59-21 2.0
3. Seattle 52-28 9.0
4. Dallas 56-24 5.0
5. Houston 49-31 12.0
6. Sacramento 49-31 12.0
7. Denver 48-32 13.0
8. Memphis 44-36 17.0

Remaining schedules:

Phoenix: DEN @SACTO
San Antonio: @MEM @MINN
Seattle: @DAL @HOU
Sacramento: @UTA PHX
Houston: LAC SEA
Denver: @PHX POR
Memphis: SA DAL

Possible scenarios:

Spurs Get #1 Seed

-In order for this to happen the Spurs need to finish with at least the same record as PHX. SA holds the tiebreaker due to the 2-1 head-to-head advantage. At this point, assuming the Spurs win out, PHX has to lose their remaining two games. PHX has home with DEN and at SACTO. SACTO and DEN will probably be playing for playoff seeding to the very last day of the season, so they possibly could run their normal rotations for these games. I think it's possible, but very unlikely, that PHX loses two in a row. Maybe a 15% chance.

Though MEM has clinched a playoff spot they still will likely play their normal rotation against the Spurs. They're badly in need of a win before the playoffs start, and beating the Spurs tomorrow would assure them of avoiding SA in round 1. I (still) give the Spurs about a 40% chance of winning out.

So, assuming I know what I'm talking about, the Spurs have less than a 10% chance of getting the #1 seed.

-If the Spurs get the #1 seed they will play MEM.

Spurs End Up with #2 Seed

-The Spurs cannot drop lower than the #2 seed.

-Who will they play? They could theoretically play SACTO, HOU or DEN. I'll break down each team's chances of ending up with the seventh seed.

-HOU/SACTO/DEN: HOU blew out DEN today. Despite that, all three teams could still end up 7th. These three teams, currently seeded 5-6-7, are all within 1 loss of each other, with HOU having the advantage on SACTO and DEN. Here's a breakdown of the two-team tie-breakers:

HOU over SACTO.
SACTO over DEN.
HOU over DEN.

HOU wins the possible three-team tiebreaker

One more win for HOU or SACTO guarantees them at least the 6th seed. If DEN loses either of its next two games it will lock itself in to the number 7 seed.

In order for SACTO to fall to the #7 seed they would have to lose their remaining two games and DEN would have to win out.

Yesterday's prediction looks to be right:

HOU
SACTO
DEN

Finals Home Court Advantage

If the Spurs reach the finals they will have home court.

It's Just a Dream He Keeps Having...

2005-04-10T21:45:00.000-07:00

This Wilco lyric, from the title track of "Summerteeth," is dedicated to Spurs fans in general. These last couple weeks have been, for the most part, a nightmare. But a weekend such as the one now ending is something unexpected and, quite frankly, damn-near unbelievable. More on that later; I want to cover previous games and tie up loose ends.

Lately I have been having all sorts of problems with Blogger. Despite numerous tries I couldn't edit my previous post regarding (mostly) the Denver Nuggets. The main thing I wanted to add/clarify is that, after seeing more evidence (specifically Denver's schedule), I would rather play Denver than Houston. I initially marked that decision a "toss-up."

Now for some quick words about past games.

LA Lakers 94 @ San Antonio 95

I watched the NBATV broadcast of this game on TiVo. It was the worst NBA on television experience I've ever had. I would rather watch a Pat Riley era Knick team play a Pat Riley era Heat team with commentary by Marv Albert and Mike Fratello than go through that Laker game again. Here's what NBATV did.

First off, instead of playing the audio from the game, they had a panel of three guys in the studio blabbing about all sorts of crap, but rarely the actual game itself. They sat in a semi-circle in front of a large screen television. The panel consisted of a couple of NBA old-timers and the token "I didn't play in the NBA, but I can actually put together sentences with polysyllabic words and I also can adequately listen to my earpiece and interrupt for the commercial break" guy.

The worst part was that the video feed would occasionally switch to a view from behind the panel. So the viewer would see three heads in front of a screen showing the game. Unbelievable. Who could possibly think this was a good idea? The producer's last name has to be, Stern-Bavetta, right?

Even with the banal audio turned off I couldn't focus on the game, so I don't remember all that much. My recollections are as follows: Ginobili played dreadfully (7 TOs and 8 points on 12 FGA), Barry hit a runner to give the Spurs the lead and Bryant inexplicably didn't take Horry to the hole and instead missed a 20-footer at the buzzer. It was the perfect ending for a surreal experience.

LA Clippers 82 @ San Antonio 91

Easy, easy win for the Spurs. Parker and Ginobili only played a combined 47 minutes. Glenn Robinson made his debut and looked a lot better than I expected. I always pictured him as one of those players who played 10 pounds overweight. Not in the Oliver Miller realm, but it was always clear he was a repeat offender at the buffet. So I was surprised to see a normally-weighted Big Dog. He clearly wasn't in playing shape, but it was obvious he hadn't let himself go, either. It was clear he was trying to mesh well from the very beginning: during an early timeout he gave a Tim Duncan patented head caress to Tony Parker. On the floor Glenn contributed 7 points in 13 minutes. He's not a plus defender, and he did look lost at times at both ends of the court. That's to be expected, though.

Man, Corey Maggette is good. He's effin' ripped, too. Imagine if both the Clippers and the Warriors are healthy next year. The TWolves will be on the outside looking in again unless they can sign some people that don't fucking suck.

The biggest story of the game had to be Mamadou N'Dyiae. Mainly because I thought Mamadou was Makhtar. I had no idea there was another N'Dyiae in the league, and for some reason that really bothered me. Are these guys related? They have to be, right? And why don't they have a reality show, or at least a weekly comedy hour? The Queer Eye fellows definitely have time for them, no? They could release a series of movies like Mary-Kate and Ashley: Mamadou and Makhtar in Milan or Makha and Mama in America. The alliterative possibilities are plentiful and undoubtedly pleasingly prurient.

(For the purposes of full disclosure I must admit that I am pretty sure "Makhtar" is a word in Klingon. However, I have no idea what it would mean. If that makes any difference. It probably doesn't. I should just stop typing now.)

I am not fit for this blogging thing. The Spurs win consecutive double overtime games on the road and I spend 100 words on two big men from Senegal who have a combined 499 points in the NBA.

San Antonio 68 @ Dallas 104

The rest of today's Wilco lyric is "...And it doesn't seem to mean anything" and it goes out to Jerry Stackhouse and the Dallas Mavericks. This past Thursday they won the NBA Championship in decisive fashion, crushing the Spurs by 36 points. Oh wait, that's not it. This past Thursday the Mavericks earned a trip to the NBA finals by sweeping the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. No, that's not right either. The Mavericks, in resounding fashion, locked up a division title by bludgeoning a rival Spurs team. Hmm, that's wrong, too.

On Thursday, the Mavericks beat a Spurs team without its best player on the second game of a back to back. Ginobili and Parker played a combined 40 minutes. The Spurs shot 0-12 from three. For some reason the entire Dallas team whooped it up the whole second half. Darrell Armstrong was waving towels, the bench was standing up most of the time and Stackhouse was talking trash. Afterwards he said, regarding Duncan: "He would've made a difference," Stackhouse said, smiling, "but I don't think he would've made a 40-point difference." He continued on with "I think we were able to put them on their heels with our defense," Stackhouse said and culminated with the following:

"About the only thing that went wrong for the Mavericks was letting Mike Wilks hit a short jumper with 13.3 seconds left, preventing them from giving up their fewest points. Team owner Mark Cuban told the players on the bench how close they were, so they were all standing up and rooting for one last defensive stand.

"They just got a lucky little putback," Stackhouse said."

I just don't get it. This game meant nothing. The only thing the Mavericks could be happy about is not embarassing themselves. They weren't even playing for playoff positioning. San Antonio was without their best player, intentionally limiting the minutes of their other two best players and clearly threw in the towel (in terms of who was playing) with 18 minutes to go. What is Dallas so happy about? And why would they do anything to piss off the Spurs? Which they clearly did: sometime in the second half Duncan ripped up a stat sheet one of the coaches was holding and said "This means nothing."

The Spurs were in a similar position a couple of weeks ago; they played a depleted Sonics team at the SBC center and crushed them. The Sonics never even had a lead. And the game actually meant something in the sense that the #2 seed was in doubt at the time and this particular game determined the tie-breaker. It was just another game to the Spurs. No laughing it up or spouting off inciteful quotes to the reporters afterword.

Needless to say, a post season series between these two teams would have a little something extra.

------------

Tomorrow or Tuesday I'll spend some time talking about the incredible weekend and review the playoff positioning situation, which has gotten interesting thanks to Shaq's illness and Phoenix's shoddy play.

Spinning Out Webs of Deductions

2005-04-07T12:15:00.000-07:00

San Antonio 84 @ Denver 102

Duncan was out, the Spurs shot 32% and Marcus Camby had 8 blocks. That's all I care to say about this particular game. However, I do want to spend some time talking about the potential Spurs vs. Nuggets first round matchup.

First, let's take a quick look at the standings. I am 90% sure the Spurs will end up the two seed. Making up two games on Phoenix is going to be very difficult when you consider the Spurs remaining schedule, which includes 6 (of 8) games on the road. Denver is currently in the 7th spot, 1/2 game (in the win column) behind Houston and 1 game up on Memphis. However, Denver has already locked up the tie-breaker against the Grizzlies, so Memphis would have to make up 2 games on them. Here's Memphis' remaining games:

vs. Miami
vs. Charlotte
@ Dallas
@ Houston
@ Denver
@ San Antonio
vs. San Antonio
vs. Dallas

BRUTAL. They'd be lucky to go 4-4 over that stretch, which means Denver would have to go 2-6. They have remaining home games against Golden State, New Orleans and Portland. That's three wins right there. Therefore, it's a virtual lock that Denver will finish ahead of Memphis.

So the question is, will Denver catch Houston? Let's look at their schedules:

Denver / Houston
@ MINN / @ LAL
SEA / @ PHX
GS / @ SEA
NO / MEM
MEM / DEN
@ HOU / LAC
@ PHX / SEA
POR

Houston's got the tougher schedule. It may come down to their head to head matchup in Houston. Whoever wins that game will have win the tie-breaker between the two teams. I think Houston has to win that game. Denver has 3 gimmies compared to Houston's 1 (LAC). I give Denver the slight edge, say 60-40, in winning the 6 spot. But, for the sake of discourse, let's pretend Denver stays at number 7.

Their are two questions.

Which team would I rather play?

This is a tough one. It seems like every key Rocket is gimpy. Juwan is gone for the season. McGrady has knee troubles. Ming has a sore calf. Jon Barry has back spasms. Mutumbo has to have arthritis or something. The Nuggets are in much better shape. Punkie has sore ribs, but the Nuggets are very deep at his position, and anyone can go 3-20 in a playoff game. Camby has a myriad of minor injuries, but that's just Marcus Camby being Marcus Camby.

If both teams were healthy, I would much rather play Denver. They don't have anyone close to McGrady and Yao Ming is as good an offensive option as anyone the Nuggets have. Plus Houston plays better defense. However, given Houston's injuries I think it's a toss-up.

So my answer is: it doesn't matter to me.

Am I worried about playing Denver?

Yes. Especially in the first round.

There are always multiple factors that contribute to the totality of how well a team is playing. But there's has to be one factor that is more important than all the others, and for the Spurs it's how Duncan plays on the offensive end. The more aggressive he is the better the Spurs are on that end of the court. And as I've said before, Duncan hates playing against ultra physical players. Denver has two guys willing to push Duncan around if allowed: Punkie and Najera. When playing for Dallas Eduardo gave Duncan fits in the playoffs two years ago. He will drape himself all over Timmeh and push him well of the block. He'll overplay the entry pass. He'll foul the shit out of Duncan if he gets near the bucket.

When faced with this type of play, Tim usually is a shrinking violet. He's not willing to fight for post position. How many times have you seen him with his arms up trying to work his way around a post defender? He likely does this to avoid fouls, and he knows he can hit the eighteen foot jumper. However, the Spurs offense works much better when he's on the block. The court can be spaced better and Duncan is a much better passer from that spot (because he often waits for the double team and isn't forced to pass off the dribble).

Duncan is also not willing to force the issue. Imagine if Najera tried to play Malone the way he plays Tim. Malone would get the ball and go straight to the bucket, likely right through Najera's chest. He'd be jumping into Najera with elbows cocked and Eduardo wouldn't last five minutes. For better or worse, that's just not the way Tim usually handles the situation. The quick, decisive and forcful post move is not his forte. And that's precisely what you need to do against the Najeras, the Madsens and the Roses. Make it clear from the very beginning that you will not be pushed around and you will not let the scrubs of the NBA keep you from getting the ball where you want it. Force the issue.

Putting Najera and Punkie on Duncan allows Camby to roam the paint and be more of a defensive force. Shot blockers are always better coming off the ball.

It all comes down to Duncan. If he's focused on exerting his will on the offensive end of the court, the Spurs take Denver out in 5 games, max. But I don't think that's going to happen. Not when I take into account how timid Tim was in the playoffs last year (against Malone, who plays the exact type of defense Najera will play). Not when I factor in Tim's gimpy ankle.

Don't get me wrong. The Nuggets aren't beating the Spurs in a seven game series if Duncan plays. They don't have anyone that can guard Ginobili and the only player that has any hope against Parker is Boykins. They don't have that one player that scares you on the offensive end. Carmelo Anthony has absolutely no idea what to do against Bowen and is shooting 30% from the field against the Spurs this year. They also aren't nearly as good as their recent record indicates. Take a look at their recent wins for chrissakes:

BOS
@ MEM
@ NO
ATL
IND
@ LAC
POR
@ SA (sans Duncan)
CHA
LAC
MIL
WAS
LAL
SAC
@ UTA
SA (sans Duncan)
@ POR
@ MEM
@ NO

How many of those are quality wins? I'll give them the two @ MEM and home against SAC and maybe WAS. That's it folks. Wow, I hadn't looked at their schedule. That definitely puts their recent "hot streak" in perspective.

So, in conclusion, I am a little worried that DEN might push the Spurs to six or seven games if Duncan doesn't bring the pain. I just said "bring the pain." I slay me.

Oh, I've Got Reservations About So Many Things

2005-04-04T21:01:00.000-07:00

...but not about you.

That Wilco lyric goes out to Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson, the newest member of the Spurs. The Spurs waived Dion Glover to make room on the roster.

When I initially read the news my first reaction was surprise followed shortly thereafter by bewilderment. Look at Glenn's career numbers:

32 years old
6'-7" 225
20.82 PPG
8.15 FGM
17.74 FGA
1.17 PPS
45.9 FG%
34.0 3p%
81.9 FT%
6.1 RPG
2.8 APG
3.15 TOPG

How often does a career 21 PPG player get picked up off of waivers with 10 games to go in the season? He started the season injured with Philadelphia and was traded to New Orleans at the deadline. They promptly waived him. I figured no one picked him up due to injury-- or maybe he went on the Oliver Miller cheeseburger diet and gained 30 pounds. But for some unknown reason he was still available.

Some Spurs fans may be worried that a player of his stature will mess up team chemistry and not mesh well into the system. That he'll screw up the defense and complain when if he doesn't get his shots. Those are the possible negative outcomes of this acquisition. None of my three friends would ever call me an optimist, but I think this was a good signing by Buford and company.

The way I see it, if Glenn doesn't play adequate defense he'll sit the bench a la Steve Smith. If he causes problems he'll get cut. I trust that Popovich won't let this be a distraction. Hell, if he could tell Karl Malone, to his face, that he wouldn't guarantee him playing time then Pop can certainly tell Glenn to ride the pine and shut his pie hole. And I'm sure the Spurs made it clear to Glenn what they expect of him.

This also seems like a great situation for Glenn. He can provide some offensive spark off the bench and prove he's still got some game left. He can also play the good soldier and try to shake his reputation of not being a team player. Oh, and he gets a good shot at a ring, too.

The main reason I like this pick up is that the Spurs definitely need some help on offense. Without Duncan they are reduced to having Parker and Ginobili penetrate and kick. It's obvious that The Sickness is quickly running out of gas. He's 15-48 in his last four games and he seems to have lost some of his explosive abilities-- he's not finishing as well at the basket and not blowing by people as regularly. Glenn can definitely save him some energy on the offensive end. Robinson is no longer the offensive player he used to be, but he's an option. You can play him on the post. He can face up from 15-20 feet and he's a decent three-point shooter. He can create his own shot. The Sickness can do a lot of these things too, and so can Parker, but it does us no good to run these guys ragged before the playoffs. Let Glenn play 17-22 minutes and put up 12-15 shots. Barry can slide over to the two and Manu can get some extra time on the bench.

I think the worst that can happen is that Glenn struggles and the Spurs lose home court against Miami. To be honest, I think this is a foregone conclusion anyway. Miami is currently ahead by a half game and have a decent schedule the rest of the way (split home and away). Their toughest game is probably Detroit at home. The Spurs, on the other hand, have 6 of their remaining 9 games on the road, including at Dallas, Memphis and Minnesota. And Duncan and Brown are out for at least four more games.

And, heck, maybe Glenn still has something. Maybe he shoots 50% from off the bench and averages 12-15 PPG. Maybe he helps the Spurs pull out some games while Duncan is hurt. The most important thing is that the Spurs start the playoffs healthy and rested, and The Big Dog can help the Spurs do that. Anything else is gravy.

I Know You Probably Hate Me; Well That's OK With Me

2005-04-03T22:31:00.000-07:00

Seattle 76 @ San Antonio 89

From now on all my entry titles will be lyrics from Wilco songs. Until I run out of lyrics or forget.

Today's lyric, from "Outtasite (Outta Mind)" on the brilliant "Being There," is dedicated to Mr. Ray Allen of the Seattle Supersonics. After Wednesday's game, where he managed 14 points on 6-17 from the field, he said the following regarding Bruce Bowen:

"He doesn't play basketball," Allen said. "I don't know what he does. They put him out there to throw punches and throw elbows. I don't know what he's doing. That's not basketball that he plays."

It's so weird that he said this, because I swear I saw Bruce crocheting out there Wednesday night.

The ever cerebral Bowen replied with ""I've never heard the great ones say anything like that. You never heard Michael Jordan say, 'Oh, John Starks doesn't play basketball.' John Starks may play physical with M.J., the Detroit Pistons may have been physical with him. What did he do? He went and hit the gym hard and continued to play."

Allen's quote has to be right up there with Pedro Martinez saying the Yanks were his "daddy." It's foolish to admit that another player is that in your head. Of course if you watched the game you would already know how frustrated Allen is with Bruce's defense. I've never seen Bruce "karate chop" anyone (which is what one GM suggested), but he's always forearming people and he's all up in your business whether you have the ball or not. If the Spurs face the Sonics in the playoffs I would put money that either Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis will end up getting into a pseudo-fight with Bruce Bowen. You know: the opponent shoves Bruce while Bruce is shrugging and telling the ref "I didn't do anything."

The Sonics were never in this game; in face they never had a lead. The Spurs scored something like their first 20 points in the paint and never looked back. I spent the first quarter thinking "How can the Sonics be this bad? Rashard Lewis is good, but he's not important enough to justify this awful performance." Then, in the second quarter, I realized Seattle was also missing Danny Fortson. He was suspended for refusing to go into the game against the Knicks. I read somewhere that he was missing a key component of his uniform under his warm-ups. So naughty. Sometime in the second half I further realized that Radmanovic was also not playing. He has a bruised coiff or something.

So, obviously, the game was not a true test of the matchup, but it was still an important win in terms of playoff seeding. As of Sunday night the Spurs are two games up on Seattle and have the tie-breaker by two games as well (conference record because the season series is tied 2-2). Given Seattle's myriad of injuries and brutal remaining schedule, I don't see anyway they finish ahead of the Spurs.

Sean Marks, who's been the second or third guy off the bench of late, even had 9 points. Which is seven points more than the soon-to-be-free-agent Jerome James scored. I wonder who will offer him the midlevel exception first, Isiaiaiiaiiih or Mullin. Damien Wilkins, son of Gerald Wilkins, looked pretty good; he's definitely got an offensive game and he's not afraid to shoot the ball. Not surprising considering his lineage.

Enough about the Spurs. I stumbled upon a life-changing discovery on Friday. Unbeknownst to me, Nike, in 2001, retroed* my seventh (or was it eighth) grade basketball shoes. I totally missed the chance to cop* my old-school kickz*.

*retroed - reproduced
*cop - to purchase^
*kickz - shoes
^or steal

Here they are: my grails*. Damn, they make me moist. I actually had the high tops, back when high tops were high tops. Them sumbitches haven't been retroed, but I'll take what I can get. Unfortunately the only place I can get them is eBay. Unfortunatelyer my old colorway* is the most popular of the retro versions. Unfortunatelyest my shoe size is the most common. So I'll have to pay about $140 for a DS* pair.

*grails - a sneakerheads most coveted pair of shoes
*colorway - the color pattern of the shoe
*DS - "dead stock;" never worn

Rumor has it some new colorways are coming out this summer. Hmm. Those would make a nice birthday present. Somebody tell The Wife. 10.5 please.

Home Sweet Home

2005-03-27T21:49:00.000-08:00

Atlanta 95 @ SA 111
Houston 70 @ SA 83

Coming off their worst road trip of the year, the Spurs were definitely in the need for some home cooking. Luckily San Antonio started the weekend against the worst road team in the NBA, the lowly Atlanta Hawks. The game was never really close, with the Spurs jumping out to a 14 point lead in the first quarter. Here are some highlights and/or things worth noting:

-Spurs shot 57% from three, including 5-7 from Brent Barry. Barry also had a nice alley-oop from Parker.

-Both Barry and Ginobili had 23 points on 12 FGA.

-Linton Johnson III made his debut for the Spurs, playing 6 minutes and grabbing three boards. He looked very rusty. Either that or the guy cannot dribble. I probably should cut the guy some slack considering he hasn't played all year due to a legitimate injury.

-I was quite impressed with Hawk rookie Josh Childress out of Stanford. He grabbed some tough rebounds and finished strong under the bucket.

-Josh Smith can jump. Like crazy high. He finished an alley-oop that reminded me of Grant Hill's in the 1991 NCAA title game. They showed a replay looking down the length of the court; Smith caught the ball behind his head and about two feet out from the edge of the backboard and dunked it in one smooth motion. Their should be a reality show where middle-aged white business men try to recreate this on an eight foot rim. I volunteer to go first.

-About two possessions later Ginobili grabbed a rebound in traffic and proceded to drive the length of the court, passing two defenders along the way, and posterize Tyronne Lue. It wasn't the most powerful dunk of all time, but the whole package was amazing. Especially considering the game was already well in hand.

Some how, some way, the Spurs managed to beat the Rockets and make it look easy. The Spurs led for most of the game but fell down by 5 with about ten minutes to go. They promptly went on a ~20-2 run to put the game out of reach. Barry hit some big threes (going 3-5 from behind the arc) and The Sickness was uncontainable in the second half. T-Mac was obviously slowed by his hip injury, and the Rockets got a total of 26 points from players not named McGrady or Ming. Rasho had a good game, with 10 PTS, 7 REB, 2 STL and 3 BLK. He got his hands on a lot of passes and forced Yao to shoot below 50% from the field.

Ginobili played some ridiculous defense on McGrady, reinforcing my opinion that he's as good an on-the-ball defender as Bowen.

The Spurs have a huge game coming up Wednesday against the Sonics at the SBC Center. If the Spurs lose they'll only be two games up on Seattle in the loss column and will have lost the season series and therefore the tie-breaker. The second tie-breaker is conference record. The Spurs are 28-11 and the Sonics are 27-12. Big, big game.

I Got Your Britney Right Here

2005-03-26T14:28:00.000-08:00

In the latest NBA Carnival thingie, this time hosted by Celtics Blog, my Google rant and little Brent Barry blurb were mentioned. Apparently Jeff's scroll button isn't working, else he would have found actual interesting Spurs content.

And the guy had the nerve to besmirch me by calling me "Britney." My name is NOT Britney, it's Matthew. Britney is my drag queen moniker, get it straight.

But seriously, there's not enough time in the day to get involved in an internet pissing match. If people wanted to read that sort of crap they would go the ESPN message boards. NBA bloggers have a responsibility to uphold a higher standard of discourse. I'll be the bigger person here and not retaliate.

It's Go Time

2005-03-25T11:18:00.000-08:00

Alright Brent Barry. Now's your time. Devin Brown is out for two weeks with back inflammation. You'll be getting 25 MPG minimum. You need to shoot, shoot and shoot some more. And guard somebody.

Here's something I've been meaning to mention. Why don't the Spurs run pick and rolls with Barry? He's a decent finisher and as good a passer as Parker (not to mention a better shooter). In fact, Barry can be the guy setting the pick instead of Rasho. Call me crazy, but I'd prefer Barry shooting the 18 footers. And then Rasho can be in the lane where he's actually useful on the offensive glass.

San Antonio Spurs Blog

2005-03-24T22:23:00.000-08:00

Dearest Google,

You are retarded. I write a San Antonio Spurs blog, but when someone searches for "San Antonio Spurs blog" (without the quotes) they will not find my San Antonio Spurs blog in the first twenty pages. That's dumb, especially when you consider that my San Antonio Spurs blog is the only San Antonio Spurs blog on the entire internet. You would think a company worth 49 billion dollars and change would be able to get this right.

Sincerely,

San Antonio Spurs blog author

Look, You Stupid Bastard, You've Got No Arms Left

2005-03-23T22:12:00.000-08:00

Alright, I'm going to try this again. *Save as Draft*

It has been a while since I last littered the internet with Spurs talk. I think I burnt myself out a little bit. Not to mention The Wife has totally been hogging the computer. And, of course, it's not much fun to talk about a team without its best player and playing so badly. But my need to say something has grown too ardent to ignore. Sort of like that time in graduate school when my right testicle hurt for multiple consecutive days. I didn't want to go to the doctor, but, as my mother always said, you've got to take care of your balls. Well, it's time for this blog to turn its head and cough.

As everyone by now knows, Timmeh The Cornerstone Duncan hurt his ankle very early in the Detroit game. I thought for sure that something was broken or torn. Maybe a frayed instep tendon or a fractured metatarsal -- hell, I was surprised his shoe even stayed together. One of the officials said something like "That was the worst ankle roll I've ever seen." Thankfully, it's "only" a grade 2 (out of 3) ankle sprain and he will "only" miss most or all of the remainder of the regular season.

Before I talk about the ramifications of his injury I must comment of the Spurs putrid play during the past three games. I fully realize that Duncan is their best player; I certainly was not expecting miracles. But the play of late has been remarkably hard to watch; a level even the Bobcats should be ashamed of.

The only player who managed not to suck ass as of late is Devin Brown, and he luckily avoided the chance to suck tonight (he had back spasms). It's not just the players; Popovich has been coaching so oddly that I am beginning to think that either:

A) He's betting on the other teams.
B) He's had a stroke and managed to hide it from the entire organization.
C) He is having trouble at home and is trying to assure losing home court advantage for the entire playoffs.
D) He's trying to be all "Phil Jackson" and let his team work through its problems.

The Knicks game featured quite possibly the worst 18 minutes of basketball in the history of the Spurs franchise. With the Spurs leading 59-53 the Knicks went on a 25-1 run. Twenty-five to one. During this time Popovich called zero timeouts. There were some mandatory stoppages of play, but he did little to try and stem the tide. He also did little to try and stop Marbury, who at one point scored 14 straight points. During that entire time Rasho was on the bench while Starbury went into the lane with impunity. It seemed like Pop was resigned to losing.

As bad as Pop has been, the players have been worse. Where do I begin?

Rasho rarely steps into the paint on the offensive end. Either this is by design and Pop really does want him shooting 18 footers, or maybe Rasho is like that guy in Awakenings who would only walk on checkered tile. Or maybe Rasho had a stroke, too.

Bowen now apparently thinks he's a shot maker. He's driving the lane, shooting leaners. He's touching the ball waaayyyy too much on the offensive end. Back to your corner Bruce. One dribble max.

Ginobili continues to practice his shot fake instead of shooting the open three. He's also working on his "take two long steps into a crowded lane and throw up a wild attempt without getting the foul call" move.

Brent Barry couldn't guard an iceberg. Every team has posted him up with whoever he's guarding. The Spurs should have him guard Boykins just to see what happens.

Nazr has contracted Fortson's sydrome: he's averaged a foul every 4.92 minutes during the last three games. And apparently he's the only player allowed to shoot early in the shot clock. He has no trouble hoisting up 15 foot fade aways with 18 seconds on the clock while Barry passes up wide open 3s.

Robert Horry has lost the ability to rebound: he has 10 the past three games.

Then there's Tony Parker. Unfortunately the league has finally figured out how to guard him. I'll spell it out for everyone. Here it is. You have your pens and papers ready?

Step 1. Put a long and/or muscular player on him.
Step 2. GO UNDER THE SCREEN AND ROLL.
Step 3. Reread Step 2.

It's that simple and I have no idea what has taken teams so long to figure this out. Here's the thing. Tony Parker is quite possibly the worst jump-shooting guard in the NBA. Tony Parker is quite possibly the worst jump-shooting guard in the NBA. Reread those last two sentences. Despite being maybe the best finishing PG in the game, the man cannot consistently hit the J. Want proof? His effective FG% on jump shots is 41.1%. That is AWFUL. The following is a list of the rest of the Spurs effective FG% on jump shots:

Udrih -- 48.5%
Ginobili -- 51.0%
Barry -- 46.8%
Brown -- 42.8%
Bowen -- 49.2%
Duncan -- 41.3%
Nesterovic -- 34.5%
Horry -- 46.1%

According to ESPN.com, Kirk Hinrich has the lowest (non-effective) shooting percentage of qualified guards. His effective FG% on jump shots is 44.8%.

I knew, before even looking at the numbers, that Parker was a horrible shooter. Yet NBA teams, complete with advance scouts, endless game tape and the same internet I use still go over the top of just about every screen, exposing some big man who has no hope of preventing Parker from penetrating into the lane where he kills opponents. This shit drives me crazy.

I mean, fuck, just look at the way he shoots. He's got the most awful follow through -- he's one of those damned wrist-flickers -- after his shot his arm isn't extended all the way. Think of the great free throw shooters -- Reggie Miller, Damon Stoudamire, Steve Kerr, Ray Allen -- they all end with there arms fully extended. The only decent shooting wrist-flicker I can think of is Brent Barry.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not mad at Tony Parker. I love the guy as a player; I was hoping the Spurs wouldn't sign Kidd because of The Wee Frechman. Blind stupidity in sports just really pisses me off. When it comes to baseball, every at bat Rey Ordonez gets, every "pitching and defense wins championships" comment goes right to my core like someone slapped my face. This is just a basketball equivalent of that.

On to the ramifications of Duncan's injury. Take a look at the playoff standings. Here's some more info regarding remaining games. Given Timmeh's injury and the remaining schedules for Miami and Phoenix I think it's pretty obvious the Spurs have lost home court advantage to those teams. Seattle is only 3 games back, but they have a real tough schedule including games at Sacramento, San Antonio, Memphis, Dallas, Houston, Denver and Minnesota. They also play Houston and Dallas again at home. Ray Allen and Danny Fortson are also nursing minor injuries. Taking all that into account, .500 ball from the Spurs should be enough to keep them in the two spot.

I think the most important seeding issue is where Houston winds up. Nobody wants to face the Rockets. They play defense, have outside shooters, a legitimate inside presence and that One Guy who can take over in McGrady. They scare the crap out of me. I hope they grab the five or four position. This would set them up for a second round matchup against the Suns. "$50 on the Houston money line please." Yeah, I don't see Phoenix even making it to the conference finals. I think Dallas or Houston will take 'em down. And Detroit could take out Miami (though I'd rather play the Heat).

Sooooo, the Spurs losing home court to PHX and MIA is not a huge issue unless it means facing HOU earlier than the WCF. The more time Duncan has to heal the better. The race is so tight that I doubt we'll know anything for sure until the final days of the regular season. Until then, pray for Duncan's ankle. (And world peace yada yada.)

Good Grief

2005-03-23T21:47:00.000-08:00

I just spent an hour writing an entry. And it's gone. Just disappeared. I was highlighting something using the control button and *poof*.

So, there you go. I am an idiot. I will now be "saving as draft" every 45 seconds from now on.

Woe is He

2005-03-22T17:13:00.000-08:00

I've been meaning to update my blog, but lately I've been stricken with grief and empathy due to Barry Bonds' situation. I feel sorry for the poor guy. I mean, seriously, who would trade spots with him right now? The endless questions regarding matters he refuses to directly address, the heavy armor he has to wear every at bat, the chartered flights, the endorsement contracts, the millions of dollars, the numerous homes, the creams and the clears. How does he squeeze in Barry time?

It's Merely a Flesh Wound

2005-03-14T17:22:00.000-08:00

Denver 90 @ San Antonio 87

The Spurs again went without Duncan and The Sickness, but unlike the Phoenix game, Nazr was available. The Nuggets came in winners of 7 straight and trying to keep pace with the Lakers in their battle for the 8th and final playoff spot.

Everytime I see Kenyon Martin play I want to scream "3-23!!!!!" Yeah, I know he had the flu or whatever, but you would think he would stop shooting at 3-15. I don't know a whole lot about NBA Finals history, but Duncan had to have one of the best games ever that night. 21 PTS, 20 REB, 10 A and 8 blocks. 2 blocks away from a quadruple double in the clinching game of the NBA Finals. Quadruple doubles happen like twice a decade, right? I know The Admiral had one, and so did Alvin Robertson. Well, apparently there's been four in the history of the NBA. Hakeem and Nate Thurmond are the other two.

Anyway, back to Kenyon. I was watching a Denver game a couple of weeks ago, but I don't recall the opponent. Martin drove baseline and got called for an obvoius charge. Martin got into the face of the ref, pointing his finger about three inches from the refs nose. He then backed off a bit and the camera angle switched so you could see his face. He said "That's fucking twice!" After a few seconds, during which the ref presumably replied, Martin responded with "Don't you fucking lie to me!" And he didn't get a technical. I couldn't believe it; either I have no idea what NBA players get away with or Kenyon Martin gets treated differently. Not that I blame the ref; he's a scary sonbitch.

Can you imagine Luke Ridnour saying "Don't you fucking lie to me!" to a ref? He'd probably get slapped.

So during the Spurs game Martin bumps Barry on his way to the basket, drawing a foul. It was definitely a foul, though there was nothing malicious about the bump. Martin says to the ref "That wasn't a foul. If I foul him you'll know it." Alright. Appartenly Martin relishes his role as NBA's resident Punk Ass Bitch. Whatever makes you happy, Kenyon. You keep cashing those checks and putting up a lackluster 15 and 8 every night. Oh, and one last thing, in case you forgot. Here's your numbers from the 03 Finals:

34% FG%, 14.7 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.2 APG and 2.3 BPG

Nice job. Duncan only bested you by 9.5 PPG, 7 RPG, 3.2 APG and 3 BPG. And he shot 50%, too. But you were sick. We understand, PABbie.

Back to the game. It was brutal. The Spurs blew a 7 point lead in the final 3 minutes of the game, going scoreless. San Antonio seemed in control up until that point. Bowen was shutting down Carmelo, Barry was filling up the stat sheet (9, 6 and 6) like during his Seattle days and Nazr was playing great off the bench. He had 9 rebounds in 16 minutes and had three very nice passes in the lane. Parker destroyed Denver in the first half, at one point spinning past Martin (I think) for a highlight reel reverse layup. But he was clearly tired in the second half (and he also had a thigh contusion) and only contributed 6 points (of 25) after the break. The only guy not playing decently was Udrih, who had 4 TOs in 10 minutes.

The Spurs couldn't do anything right during the last three minutes. Their last six possessions resulted in two turnovers and four missed jumpers. Barry had the ball with 30 seconds to go and the Spurs down 1. He weakly drove into the lane and threw a pointless pass to Devin Brown; or to where Devin Brown used to be; he had began a cut towards the lane and the ball bounced out of bounds. Ugh.

The previous Denver possession culminated in two Najera free throws. Najera initially missed a shot but Denver grabbed three offensive rebounds before getting fouled. For reasons I cannot imagine both Rasho and Nazr were on the bench at the time. Both of them are much better rebounders than either Massenburg or Horry.

The Spurs had a final chance with 17 seconds to go and down by 3. Apparently the ball was supposed to go to Barry through Horry. That never happened. Parker ended up with the ball at the top of the key. The entire team basically stood there for 15 seconds. Parker then threw up a desperation, fall-away three with 2 seconds left; back rim, game over. Brutal to watch. The Wife could barely stand it. Pop ended up taking the blame for the final play; he only diagrammed one option and when that fell through Parker was waiting for a pick that never came.

The offense, the defense, the coaching; it all sucked for the last three minutes.

******

Some odds and ends... Matt over at Bulls Blog has started a periodic recap of what's going on in the NBA blog neighborhood. There are a lot of other bloggers that make me look like a hack; check them out when the boss isn't around.

Now for another update on my Atlanta wagering. I was +$9 previously.

@ BOS +12.5 lost by 4 +$19
@ TOR +9.5 won by 4 +$29
vs. GS +4.5 lost by 13 +$18
vs. DET +8 lost by 6 +$28
currently 7-3 ATS since "losing" Walker

I'm actually +$39 because I didn't bet on the GS game. I fully intended to, but the line opened at +3.5 and that seemed really low to me. I was going to wait a couple of hours to see if the line would go up (which it did) and ended up forgetting to get my money down.

The Elephant in the Room

2005-03-09T21:18:00.000-08:00

Part of me wants to make a clear, bold statement. Something to the effect of "The Suns have absolutely no chance of beating the Spurs in a seven game series." But then I remember that the previous game in Phoenix went into overtime; the series could easily be 2-1 Suns.

In case some of you are unaware, Phoenix beat San Antonio tonight 107-101. Phoenix jumped out to an early 14-16 point lead but the Spurs fought back and kept the margin around 6 for most of the second half. Tim Duncan didn't play due to his sore ankle. The Sickness didn't play due a host of injuries, including a tightness in the groinal regions. The Spurs were without their two best players. Also, Nazr was unavailable, leaving the Spurs with 9 players suited up. In the interest of full disclosure, the Suns only got 6 minutes out of Q, who suffered a mild concussion in the first quarter. He's their fourth most important player.

So, given the above, and knowing how important the game is to the Suns (which I talked about earlier in the day), one would think the Suns would blow the Spurs out of the water. (Yes, I understand teams have let downs; the Spurs have them all of the time. But the Spurs let downs are almost always against much lesser teams and with much less on the line. For example, the Spurs went into Seattle in the end of January having yet to beat them in two attempts. Everyone knew it was a huge game for the Spurs. Both Ray Allen and Nate McMillan were absent, and the Spurs still beat the crap out of the Sonics. Given the Suns situation, they had no excuse for a let down.)

To be honest, the only evidence of a "let down" for the Suns was the final score. They definitely brought energy all night. They ran when they could and crashed the boards. But here's the thing... Phoenix doesn't play defense. They win by running relentlessly and hitting a bunch of threes. They have 5 extremely athletic players who are really good at doing the above.

But that type of offense doesn't work very well against the Spurs. Because, well, the Spurs do play defense. They get back in transition and they don't allow many three attempts. Phoenix averages 23.9 3P attempts per game. Against the Spurs they average 16.0 (and remember one of those games went into overtime). You think that's a coincidence? Here's a clue. It's not. The Spurs allow 15% fewer three point attempts than the team second in that category. Now, take into account the Spurs have the largest margin of victory. That should lead to more three point attempts. But it doesn't. Why? Because the Spurs make it a point to prevent 3PA. You don't have to be inside the locker room to know this. Just watch how aggressively they run at shooters. Watch how they play the pick and roll. Look at the numbers.

Gregg Popovich is a defensive genius: he understands 3 > 2.

The Spurs were missing their two best players. Amare scored 44 on 22 FGA. PHX shot 52% from the field and 40% from 3. PHX outrebounded the Spurs by 16. The Spurs shot 13.3% from 3. And the Suns won by 6 points. At home. With two more days rest than the Spurs. I'm sorry, but, uhh...

The Suns have absolutely no chance of beating the Spurs in a seven game series.

(&@)(#&$

2005-03-09T16:39:00.000-08:00

Atlanta is up 10 after one quarter. If I was more flexible I would kick myself in the nuts for not having the balls to bet the money line. Should a team ever be +750 against an opponent as mediocre as the Celtics? Of course, having said all this, Atlanta will be probably go scoreless the rest of the way and lose by 75.

Here's a nice little article about The Matrix and The Sickness.

Houston, You May Present a Problem

2005-03-09T12:37:00.000-08:00

The Wife is finishing up pharmacy school soon and I couldn't be happier. Her completion signals my impending retirement and an end to the endless onslaught of "functions." I swear, every other week I was required to find a new excuse for not going to some social gathering.

So last night I went to the Houston vs. Seattle game with about 40 soon-to-be pharmacists. Luckily I was at the end of the last row and could actually watch the game. And a hell of a game it was. Ray Allen and Tracy McGrady both went off. T-Mac hit a bunch of tough shots down the stretch, which isn't much of a surprise. However, Yao Ming really stepped up in the fourth quarter. He was saddled with foul trouble for most of the first half and didn't get extended minutes until after the break.

The Rockets consistently went to Yao towards the end and he responded with 10 points on 4-5 shooting. These weren't 15 foot jumpers or 10 fall-aways; he took the ball to the rack repeatedly. Granted, he was facing the scrub Jerome James, but you still cannot discount his aggression. The Rockets will have a very formidable team if Yao develops into a late-game scoring threat. Hopefully the Spurs can avoid them in the playoffs. I'd rather play any other team in the Western Conference with the exception of Phoenix with home court advantage.

Speaking of, San Antonio has a huge game at Phoenix tonight. Phoenix is currently one game behind the Spurs and are 0-2 against them. The Suns will have a lot of pressure on them. Falling 2 games behind the Spurs and going 0-3 for the season would make grabbing home court very difficult. And until they beat SA, people are going to tag them with "But they still can't beat the Spurs." They're at home with two days rest and the Spurs are playing the second game of a back-to-back. Duncan is gimpy, Rasho is sick and Nazr may not play. The Suns have to win tonight; if they cannot beat the Spurs under these conditions how could they possibly have any hope of beating them 4 times in a 7 game series?

By the way, tonight marks the first time all season that the Spurs are underdogs; they are getting 4.5 points.

Speaking of, time for an update on my betting on ATL exploits.

@ UTA +10 lost by 22 -$11
vs. PHI +6 lost by 1 -$1
@ MIL +9 lost by 4 +$9
currently 4-2 ATS since "losing" Walker

Tonight they play at Boston and are getting 13 points. The money line is +750. Given my dislike for Antoine Walker, the money line is hard to resist.

Nickname for Nobili

2005-03-06T22:43:00.000-08:00

I have a nickname for Manu Ginobili. What you've all been waiting for, no doubt. I have to give some credit to the very nearly senile Dick Stockton. Half the time he says "mah-no" instead "ma-new," which led to this:

The Sickness.

How bad is that? And by "bad," I mean good. Or do I? The Wife thinks it's downright awful; even calling it geigh at one point. I explained to her that "sick" means good, but she wouldn't have any of that. Didn't matter.

But I like the way it sounds. And the way Manu plays is sort of a twisted, warped version of normal NBA basketball. Wrong-footed jumpers, long-striding through the lane attempting layups no one else even sees, behind-the-back-across-the-court passes. And, AND, it doubles as a sweet wrestling OR And-1 nickname. He's The Sickness.

It's my world.

Tyson Chumpler

2005-03-06T21:41:00.000-08:00

San Antonio 102 vs. Chicago 99

The Bulls started the season 2-13. Since then they've been 27-14. During that time Ben Gordon missed a total of three shots in the fourth quarter. Or something like that. Apparently he's "clutch." He's one of those players the media love to talk about; he spent four years at UConn and won an NCAA title there. And he's not a damned furriner! Theytukerjerbs!

The Bulls were leading 20-13 with 3:30 to go in the first quarter when Bowen stole the ball and passed ahead to Parker. Tony had one man between him and the basket; he did some wigglin' and then went up for a layup which was blocked out of bounds from behind by Tyson Chumpler. No big deal. That play happens all the time. But for whatever reason Tyson felt the need to talk some crap in Parker's grill. Tony--

Wait a second. I was just trying to find a picture of the Tony Parker face when I found this. What the hell? Someone needs to blow this up poster size and put it in the Spurs locker room. He should never live that picture down. Does he even have pants on? Eesh.

--had this look on his face that I've seen many times. In this case the look meant "You realize I'm sleeping with Eva Longoria, right? And that I've already won a title and will make $66 million over the next six years? Who are you again?" At this point Tony had 4 points and 1 assist. He finished with 25 and 8. Tyson fouled out in 26 minutes with 8 points and 5 rebounds. He also got stuffed by Rasho. Get a tattoo of that, Chumpler.

Duncan looked like a totally different player tonight. He was offensively aggressive all night; facing up and taking guys off the dribble and working some post moves. Most importantly he attacked immediately. He finished with 31 points on 23 shot attempts. He needs to get up 18-20 shots every night.

The Bulls hung around the whole game. The Spurs had 16 TOs, but it felt more like 22. The Bulls also shot FIFTY-FOUR PERCENT from the field. Othella Harrington scored 20 points in 20 minutes. Ben Gordon also had 20 and made some ridiculous shots in the fourth. On two occasions he threw in layups off the top of the glass while drawing a foul. I have no idea why this guy only plays 23 minutes a game.

And how the hell does Chris Duhon start over Gordon? Don't give me that crap about "the spark off the bench." Chicago needs to put "the scrub on the bench." Shit, Duhon isn't even in the league if he didn't go to Duke. I'm not a Duke hater, but, c'mon, the guy shoots 34%. He cannot shoot the three and he cannot finish at the basket. Yeah, he can pass a bit, but if you can't shoot at least 40% (especially when you aren't the focal point of the offense) you don't belong in the league. He'll be in Turkey by 2007.

Rasho had 7 offensive boards. Nazr didn't play due to a strained groin he's been bothered by since before the trade. Manu struggled with his shot but still managed 19 points on 17 shot attempts. Parker and Duncan hit big jumpers late in the game and Duncan and Nobili hit their free throws down the stretch to seal the win. Spurs went 22-26 from the line and managed 102 points against a very good defensive team (Chicago is second in the league in field goal percentage allowed).

Ginobili Getting Signature Shoe?

2005-03-03T13:03:00.000-08:00

Update II: Well, nevermind. Apparently to "20" stands for the "Nike 20 Collection" which celebrates 20 years of Nike or something like that. Please pardon my rogue journalism. (Thanks to ALVAREZ6 of the spurstalk.com message boards for the info.)

Update: (Read below first so the following makes sense.) I don't know if Eastbay just added another colorway or if I'm a moron and missed it the first time. These colors pretty much seal the deal. Manu Ginobili has a signature shoe.

About a month ago there was a rumor going around that Jordan was interested in adding Nobili to the Jordan Brand. I don't think that's going to happen, but I did notice that Nobili recently switched from wearing the Huaraches to wearing Air Max Ballers, which aren't for sale according to Niketown.com.

But, today I found this. According to Nike.com, there are only four players that wear Ballers (Pierce, Jefferson and Nowitzki) and none of them have the number 20. If you didn't notice, there's a 20 on the tongue in the pic, which happens to be Manu's number.

They are for sale at Eastbay, but there's only one colorway and no information is given concerning Manu. If anyone has any more information leave a comment of send me an e-mail.

Paging Tim Duncan to the Offensive End of the Court

2005-03-03T12:01:00.000-08:00

San Antonio 92 vs. Toronto 86

The Spurs played good defense most of the night, holding Toronto to 36.6% shooting and under 30% in the first half. However, they also allowed the Raptors to shoot 35 FT, which kept Toronto within striking distance to the very end.

But the Spurs always play defense. I'm not worried about their defense, I'm worried about the other half of the game. On the offensive end it seems like they are, well, uh, fucking around. It seems like half of their turnovers are due to trying to make a highlight reel type pass (like Brent Barry's across-the-court-over-the-head-bounce-pass-through-four-defenders last night). They also are too willing too pass up open shots. Nobili and Duncan are the main offenders here. Ginobili passes up about two open threes a game. He loves that exaggerated head fake where he kicks his right leg up in the air. And even then he passes the ball too much on the drive, like his behind the head pass to Horry last night as the shot clock was running out.

It's like the Spurs are Hickory High: they must execute five passes before shooting the ball. Timmeh seems to follow this strange rule where he must wait for either the double team or five seconds, which ever comes first. There was a possession in the second half where Duncan got the ball about 10 feet from the basket. For once he immediately drove the lane and went by Bosh (like his feet were in stone) for a layup. Don't give the time for the defender or defense to set up. Don't wait for the double team. You're supposed to be our first option on offense, so just go. There's less than 10 guys in the league that should have any hope of guarding you. Just go. Pretend you're Jordan.

It probably seems stupid to complain about a team that's 44-13, but their offense is what did them in last season. They played too timidly. Players weren't willing to take big shots and Duncan wasn't willing to force the issue.

In the 2003 series against the Lakers, where the Spurs prevailed 4-2, Duncan averaged 24.35 shot attempts per game.

In the 2004 series against the Lakers, where the Spurs lost 2-4, Duncan averaged 19.35 shot attempts.

You think that's fucking random chance; that there's no connection? Yes yes yes I know the Lakers had Karl Malone last year. Here's the thing:

I don't give a shit. You're Tim Duncan. You're Mr. MVP. You're the best player on the team. Force the damn issue. Take the ball to the rack. Shoot over Malone right away. Take over. Get some swagger. You're Michael Jordan. You're Larry Bird. You're Kobe Bryant. You're not Scottie Pippen. You're not Kevin McHale. You're not Shaquille O'Neal.

Am I blaming Duncan for the Lakers series? Well, uh, yes I am. But he's still the best player on the best team. He's still one of the four best players in the league. But, like his predecessor David Robinson, he's missing the offensive aggression that would make him unstoppable.

Got a little sidetracked there. So, yeah, the Spurs beat Toronto. Bowen played really well in the second half. Parker had a great behind the back fake that got him a layup (he even winked at somebody afterwards). Jalen Rose is as bad as I thought. For whatever reason, Nazr Mohammed only played 6 minutes after playing 16 the game before. He had a nice quick turnaround (with requisite head fake) for his only points. He also royally screwed up a pick and roll that allowed Alston a wide open three (which led to Tony Parker throwing the ball at the basket support in disgust).

Putting My Money (or Foot) Where My Mouth Is

2005-03-02T16:46:00.000-08:00

I am confident that the Hawks are a much better team without Antoine Walker. I am going to back up that claim with my hard earned cash. Starting tonight, I am placing eleven whole dollars on Atlanta to cover the spread. I will do this for every game until my fifty-five whole dollars run out or the season ends, whichever comes first.

ATL +10 @ UTA

Yes, I know Tyronne Lue is suspended. I am not easily deterred. By the way, ATL is 2-1 ATS since the Walker trade.

I will keep everyone updated whether you are interested or not.

HOT-LANTA REPRESENT!

Do you know how the above quote relates to the Spurs?
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(&@)(#&$